Special teams game theory for Saturday
OK, so we can basically guarantee we see either a fake punt, fake FG, or both at some point Saturday. So if your Harbaugh and Don Brown, do you give up blocking a FG, or setting up a return Saturday and just stay in base D on every 4th down? I know DPJ is a nasty return man, but so help me if we get burned on a fake Saturday.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
I say no. Our D can get more stops if needed.
I'm anticipating a surprise onside kick rather than the fake punt/FG
October 15th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Actually, agree re onside kick. Not sure what it looked like on TV, but seemed like we handled the onside from Wisconsin terribly - looked like 1-2 players passed on snagging it to let Collins go up and get it.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^
That was by design. Only one player can field it, so the others charge forward to block, trying to make sure the receiver stays as clean as possible while fielding the ball. It is a split second decision by multiple people on who the receiver will be.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
This is correct. The top 2 receivers, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Nico Collins, were both set up in the second echelon of players. Their job was to field the kick if it came their way. The front row's job is to step forward and block (unless the ball fails to bounce, when they can fall on it).
October 15th, 2018 at 1:51 PM ^
From my vantage point in the stadium I couldn't tell how far the ball had traveled before Collins snatched it, but I, too, thought that Wisconsin may recover it for a second.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
They will only have one kickoff though.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
So, they punt (rather than kickoff) after the safeties?
October 15th, 2018 at 1:35 PM ^
Maybe on FGs, but you can't just give them an automatic no punt return. That would result in a ton of lost hidden yards and bad field position.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
would it though? Their punter sucks butt
October 15th, 2018 at 1:41 PM ^
He'll look like a freaking champ when his punts roll twenty yards beyond where they landed.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
I cringe every time we try to block a punt anyways. It just doesn't seem like the benefits (blocked punt) outweighs the negatives (15 yard penalty and continued possession or loss of return yards).
October 15th, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^
Opponents have returned only 13 of MSU's 35 punts so far this season, for an average of 6.3 yards per return. MSU's gross punting average is only 40 yards, so their punter might just be hitting it too short for the punts to be returnable. Obviously you still put DPJ back there to catch the ball so it doesn't roll, but giving up on blocking for a punt return in order to either go for the block or play it safe doesn't seem like it would be sacrificing much.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
Onside Kicks yes.. Or the Transcontinental or reverse on a Kickoff return.
The two punt returners is a favorite too.
Just kick it out of the endzone please
October 15th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
yes and....
1) first drive msu will go tempo for sure, so have your personnel ready
2) there will be one misdirection screen to a full back/running back (2015 long touch down/last year touch down)... stay sound in your assignments and mix up aggressiveness/looks we give
3) sokol will throw a pass (look for an eagles-super bowl like play)
4) They will see wisconsin's success on jet sweeps and plan for it (especially if stewart back). could be the play we see #3 used on (double reverse)
5) lewerke running and breaking contain on pass plays certain to be center of their game plan
6) for us... dont turn it over and win the field position game battle of attrition, every time each team punts, we win 10 yards back at least and means they most likely very aggressive in fourth and short situations
October 15th, 2018 at 1:40 PM ^
Fake punts only work when the defense is thoroughly off guard; if the D has even half an eye out for them, they usually fail. There's no need to sacrifice return yards.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
It's not a sure thing. MSU already ran a fake FG last week, and they don't always run them on us. Just think: How many fake punts / fake fgs have they run on us in the Harbaugh era?
There's no doubt they'll have a trick play prepared, but that doesn't mean special teams. And a great deal of the "emptying the cupboard" that MSU brings to the table comes from diligent preparation. They've been preparing for this, literally, all season long.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
No that’s really unproductive, especially on a day where trading punts will be something like a 15-20 yard advantage.
There are punt and field goal safe calls they’ll put on situationally but mostly you stop the fakes by paying attention.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
You don't need to go full base defense, all you need to be in is safe FG and safe punt and that is usually enough to deter fakes.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
If Michigan gets burned on a fake special teams play then so help me god...
i don’t think the risk is worth the reward between running into the kicker or getting burned by a fake...play base and let the kickers botch something on their own or just happily take the ball back
October 15th, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
we've been close to running into kicker a few times, so hope we self scouting that
October 17th, 2018 at 8:46 AM ^
In fairness to our special teams, the running into the punter against Wisconsin happened because Glasgow and another player were basically shoved into the punter. Glasgow actually did a terrific job of stopping right before contact with the plant leg.
October 15th, 2018 at 1:57 PM ^
Instead of DPJ on the punt returns, how about putting Thomas deep and Watson mid deep to field and to watch for fakes. They can close the gaps to play defense.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
I'd be surprised if they tried a fake FG two weeks in a row. That's generally something you do once a season. Fake punt? Maybe.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
They had two fakes in the game. One worked and one was open. Their punter is awful right now since their starter went down.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:58 PM ^
"just stay in base D on every 4th down?"
ew.
October 15th, 2018 at 5:08 PM ^
MSU may have some all out/sneaky punt block attempt(s).
October 15th, 2018 at 5:42 PM ^
You can call "safe" returns that don't require you to be in your base D. This is what I would do. I think we are way more likely to get a crucial penalty than a blocked kick.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
I might bait them into one. Present max pressure and drop into zone at the snap.
But yes. We need to be ready for anything. I might have fired my special teams coach if I was Franklin.
October 16th, 2018 at 6:20 AM ^
OMG. Clearly somebody needs to get all this incredibly insightful information to the Michigan coaching staff!!! And be sure to include things like "If we don't score more points than they do we will lose".