Softball: Update through 19 games

Submitted by Solecismic on March 1st, 2024 at 6:13 PM

The softball team is in California nearing the end of its spring break. They're playing at the Judi Garman invitational - one of the top early-season tournaments in college softball and their toughest challenge on the schedule.

They opened with two games Thursday. They lost to Texas A&M, 6-0, and host Cal State-Fullerton, 5-1. This morning, they lost to Oregon State, 1-0, and UCLA, 10-0 - their first mercy loss of the season. This dropped their record to 10-9.

Their record this season represents a decline from last year, the first in decades that they didn't go to the NCAA tournament. The Wolverine schedule this year is easier than in past years. Whether that's intentional or not getting invited to as many top tournaments is hard to say.

So far this season, their losses have been to (last year's final RPI in parentheses) South Florida (73), Louisville (37), Florida Atlantic (92), Sacramento State (171), Long Beach State (79), Texas A&M (26), Cal State-Fullerton (43), Oregon State (85) and UCLA (2). They have had 12 hits combined in the four games they've played, none for extra bases.

While the bats perked up a bit last weekend, it was against competition much weaker than they'll face in the mediocre Big Ten. Against teams that will be in contention for an NCAA bid, they're hardly getting on base at all. Their big win remains the first-weekend extra-inning victory over Florida (24), in which they had one hit. Their next-best win was over last season's Pac 12 basement-dweller Oregon State (85), in which they had two hits and were down, 1-0, entering the seventh inning. They were unable to score against Oregon State today. Another Florida game is set for tomorrow.

The pitching has kept them competitive in most games. Before this tournament, they had only one loss by more than one run. Junior Lauren Derkowski is their ace, but her .229 average against and 1.65 ERA are not very comparable to recent aces. She's a battler, and without her things would be pretty bad for the team. Senior Jessica LeBeau and freshman Erin Hoehn are also starting games. This staff is above average for the Big Ten, but will struggle against better hitting teams.

The lineup is very young. I'll briefly list the every-day starters, along with their OPS for the season. Sophomore Maddie Erickson (.997) is playing third base, freshman Jenissa Conway (.751) is in center field and shows a lot of power, but doesn't make a lot of contact. Junior Ellie Sieler (.646) leads off and plays left field. Redshirt freshman Lilly Vallimont (.598) plays first base and some catcher and is a big power prospect. Senior Keke Tholl (.544) is usually the catcher and freshman Ella Stephenson (.437) is playing right field. Sophomore Indiana Langford (.601) often plays second base, and seems to be back after missing a week.

At shortstop, sophomore Avery Fantucci, a major signing for the team, has been starting recently, moving junior Ella McVey either to second base or out of the lineup. McVey started both games today, however.

There are a lot of top prospects in this lineup. They're just not developing into great college hitters. One factor? Perhaps Tholl plays too much little-ball. The team OBP is below .300, about 200th in Division I, but they lead the entire country in sacrifice bunts. Back 10-20 years ago, you had to manufacture runs in softball. But they moved the mound back, and it became more of a power game. Perhaps this outdated approach - everyone needing to learn good bunting technique and over-aggressive baserunning - gets in the way of developing power hitters. They have to figure this out or they won't be able to get top recruits any more. For some reason, they haven't been a good defensive team the last two seasons - great defense had been a Carol Hutchins trademark.

Next year's crop looks very impressive, including J.J. Putz's daughter, Lauren, who could well be a 20-home run threat in the right lineup. They also have a couple of good pitching prospects coming in.

Solecismic

March 1st, 2024 at 7:08 PM ^

Hard to say. She's been around the program for decades and she has recruited great hitting prospects. Not so great with pitching, but there's some help in the pipeline.

What's frustrating is seeing her play for one run, no matter who is at the plate. It's not a 1-0 world any more. And with a team that just can't get on base, throwing away outs seems very 1990s. The hitting prospects aren't developing. But they are excellent bunters.

I think it's fixable, but they need a modern hitting approach and I'm not sure she wants to embrace that. Hopefully, she'll wake up tomorrow and adjust. Another year or so of this offense and hitting prospects won't want to come here. I'm sure other coaches are already pointing this out.

M Ascending

March 2nd, 2024 at 8:59 AM ^

I have been an avid fan of UM softball for 30 years. I am utterly dismayed by the precipitous decline over the past 5 or 6 years.  And I am also highly skeptical of Tholl's ability to turn things around. This past weekend just cements that feeling. 

Why Warde didn't conduct a full blown search for a coach is beyond me.  Except that he's Warde.  I suspect that Hutch made it a condition of her retirement that he hire Tholl. If that's the case,  he has even less backbone than I thought. 

Solecismic

March 2nd, 2024 at 12:12 PM ^

Erickson can hit. Conway and Vallimont might develop into exactly the type of power hitters they need. But Tholl's approach has to transition to the modern game and they have to develop these hitters.

It's going to be a rough season. Last year, they were maybe last five or six out of the NCAAs. This year, they're not going to be anywhere close to that. But it's not a mess like men's basketball. There's a future here if they can transition.

Hard to blame Manuel. We have the hand-picked successor of one of Michigan's most successful coaches - a legend in her sport. He had to go with that. Anyone would have. Now we know Tholl's approach isn't working. Can she adjust? How long does Manuel give her? Those are the important questions.

Solecismic

March 2nd, 2024 at 2:06 PM ^

And... they own Florida.

The Seminoles are up to 13th in the rankings, and had won 11 in a row. Now two of their three losses are to Michigan.

Their pitcher today was 8-0 and had given up one run all year. Michigan scored four in the first, then six more in the third off the bullpen.

Freshman Erin Hoehn was one strike from a mercy shutout, but ran out of gas. Derkowski came on to finish it (error, then strikeout). 10-2, Michigan, in five innings.

Michigan had no home runs today, but ten hits and, more importantly, no sacrifices. Still, a couple of baserunning mishaps (they are not a good base-stealing team, but they keep trying). A step in the right direction - there's potential there.

Keke Tholl and Lilly Vallimont each had a pair of hits and Hoehn, who is the rare pitcher who also hits, had a three-run double. She often starts at designated player when not pitching.