So, how many points would it take?
Hypothetically, let's say you are down $200 to you buddy after picking Michigan over Minnesota, and State over OSU. Now he wants to go double or nothing on Saturday and will give you 21. Are you still comfortable? I am going to push for 28 and settle for 24. Do you think that this is enough to comfortably watch the game up 24-0 to start? I think that is a hell of a margin to overcome with our team trying their hearts out for Brady (assuming that they did not check out earlier in the season) and the fact that both coordinators are coaching possibly their last games for Michigan. 24 and I am in. 21, sadly, I am nervous.
November 27th, 2014 at 7:43 PM ^
21, take it. Brady is going all in, and players are too. Gardner and Butt are getting healthier every week, and Gardner will play great. Think of last year..... push for 24, if he says no, take 21 and know that you will be even after the game. I say Osu wins by 13.
November 27th, 2014 at 7:51 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 9:18 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 9:29 PM ^
This. Did you hypothetically bet one hundred US dollars on Michigan vs Minnesota? Did you do this after having seen Michigan play Utah?
My advice is to no longer bet on Michigan games.
November 27th, 2014 at 9:44 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^
and gave him on 3 on State.
November 28th, 2014 at 9:15 AM ^
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November 28th, 2014 at 12:28 AM ^
Hmmm profile created today, I think your friend found your post and is intentionally trying to give you what he thinks is bad advice.
November 28th, 2014 at 5:19 AM ^
When you said Gardner will play great that gave me laughter for the rest of the weekend.
November 28th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 7:44 PM ^
It would take 40 points for me to bet on Michigan. I think the final will be around 45-3 or so.
November 27th, 2014 at 10:07 PM ^
I could see us sniffing 20. 45-20 seems reasonable to me
November 27th, 2014 at 7:46 PM ^
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November 27th, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^
Worst come to worst, 14 points could still do. Also there is always a chance for a Michigan win!
November 28th, 2014 at 9:13 AM ^
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November 27th, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^
The good:
1. despite his other problems, Hoke has played well against OSU. Likely, because he places a ton of importance on this one game.
2. Our defense is not bad. We do really well against crap offenses and tend to do moderately against good offenses. OSU is the latter, so I expect that we will do "ok" but not great. I still have some faith in GMAT to bring enough variety to confuse a first year - albeit talented - QB and OL.
3. It's a rivalry game and - see last year - odd stuff happens in rivalry games. Not necessarily calling for the upset, but at a minimum, enough fluky stuff could transpire to keep us closer than we should be.
4. Our OL is really improving, as is our rushing game. We might be able to field a somewhat balanced attach.
So, that's the good. Now for the bad:
1. Out offense is not good. Despite point 4 above, we just are not a good offense.
2. We are at a decided coaching disadvantage.
3. Our special teams are a complete disaster, worth around 7 points net advantage for OSU alone.
4. OSU is playing for a playoff spot and needs to win big after last week. Our team is playing for nothing and folds at the first sign of adversity.
5. On the road.
Taking it all together, I expect that our defense can keep it close for 1.5 quarters, but that before the half, OSU will pull away. If that happens, look out - it could be a blowout.
I wouldn't take us +21. To feel somewhat safe, I would need 25 or more.
November 27th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^
"We might be able to field a somewhat balanced attach"
I find it funny, how in your hypothetical, that your keyboard wouldn't let you spell attack right. Even it knew how ridiculous that sounded.
November 27th, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 7:51 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 7:56 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 8:09 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 8:14 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 9:00 PM ^
Michigan's level of incompetence is exponentially greater on the road.
November 27th, 2014 at 7:57 PM ^
But put this aside at game time, just in case...
November 27th, 2014 at 8:25 PM ^
There's one thing that Brady Hoke has done well at Michigan. That's play Ohio State well. He's 1-2 and all 3 games were 1 possession games. He had titanium nuts last year going for 2. He may not be the head coach come Monday morning, but he still has put all in against Ohio State.
If that friend gave me 14 points I'd take that bet.
November 27th, 2014 at 9:23 PM ^
where going 1-2 against OSU - with one 6 point win against a 6-7 team in a transition year with no coach and a true freshman QB - is considered "playing OSU well." Guess that's the way it is. I feel lucky to have seen one victory over each of OSU/MSU as a student at UofM, but the truth is, I was in seventh grade for Michigan's last great victory over Ohio State.
November 27th, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 8:38 PM ^
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November 27th, 2014 at 9:11 PM ^
Your friend seems quite prescient. Picking the road underdog both times is balsy yet both those games were hardly even close.
Unless he gives you OSU -50 I would advise pay up and not make any more bets this year.
November 27th, 2014 at 9:12 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 9:13 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 10:00 PM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^
Unless they put in their second string coaches that reasoning isn't convincing.
November 27th, 2014 at 9:23 PM ^
This team has not quit on Hoke and OSU is overrated. They have only played and beaten one good team(MSU) all year. Minnesota and Indiana kept it close and both teams have abysmal passing games. In case people forgot, they even needed overtime(and some help from the refs) to beat Penn State. I also think Mattison will mix things up and find a way to unsettle Barrett. If Gardner doesn't turn the ball over(poor guy is long overdue to have a good game), I think we'll keep it close and might even pull off the upset.
November 27th, 2014 at 9:24 PM ^
Set scoring zones
1-7: 400
8-14: 200
15-21: 100
22-: 0
November 27th, 2014 at 9:32 PM ^
21 is good, but push for 24. 21 It's about a 80% to win with 21. Gardner/Butt are getting healthier every day, and Hoke is going to make it close. He is going to fight for his job, just like the rest of the staff. Seniors including Gardner will leave it all on the field, could even result in a Michigan win.
November 27th, 2014 at 9:54 PM ^
You truly are an optimist. Hoke may be fighting for his job, but Urban knows he needs to blow us out to make OSU look good for a playoff spot. Hoke can fight all he wants, he's still a god awful coach.
November 27th, 2014 at 10:02 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^
but based on how Hoke's teams have always played vs OSU, I'd say...30? On some miracle day, I could see us holding OSU to 24-28. Even then, I see no scenario where our flaccid offense scores more than that
November 27th, 2014 at 11:22 PM ^
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November 27th, 2014 at 11:32 PM ^
November 27th, 2014 at 11:43 PM ^
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November 27th, 2014 at 11:24 PM ^
What odds will someone give me if i give you OSU -6?
:)
November 28th, 2014 at 12:13 AM ^
November 28th, 2014 at 12:19 AM ^
i understand you're basically hedging your emotional pain (ie "hey we lost, but we only lost by 17 points so i'm making mad moniezzzz"), but i would just be a nervous wreck.
November 28th, 2014 at 9:05 AM ^
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November 28th, 2014 at 9:08 AM ^
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November 28th, 2014 at 9:45 AM ^
atleast you'll be able to explain the pain when your done. Seriously, put done the N20. This season has been bad enough on all of us, don't make it any worse for yourself.
November 28th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^