SIAP - More data on Harbaugh, top talent outcome
SIAP, did a search, but it's MGOBLOG, so yea, not useful.
ESPN (TVH) did an analysis on coaches who do the least with the most in recruiting. It is paywalled: https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/30101888/which…
Basically, it looked at the 2015 - 2017 ESPN 300 players and the teams which signed the majority of them (13 schools assessed) and then looks at the following categories:
Draft percentage: UM at 33.3%. UM ranks 7. GA, LSU, Bama, Clemson, OSU, Miami all rate better
First Team all-conference selection: UM at 29.6%. UM Ranks 3rd behind Clemson and OSU
All-American Selection: UM at 3.7%. UM Ranks 9 behind Bama, Clemson, LSU, OSU, GA, OK, Auburn, TX.
Transfers: UM at 62.9%. UM Ranks 12 behind Miami, Clemson, TN, GA, LSU, OSU, Bama, Auburn, USC, FSU, TX. Only school with a worse transfer out rate than UM is OK.
Michigan's number is high as well. The Wolverines had nine of their 11 players from the 2017 class transfer or leave and seven of the 13 from the 2016 leave, meaning only eight of the 23 eligible ESPN 300 prospects from those classes finished at Michigan.
Basically, we aren't the worst, that falls to FSU which is in the bottom 5 in pretty much all categories. That said, the talent development isn't as nearly as good as it can be. The transfer rate is staggering. From a conference perspective, Harbaugh has done enough to make the talent that he gets shine, but in relation to the rest of college football, he's lacking in making that same impact. The on the field performance though doesn't match the talent. OSU is a juggernaut because their talent gets results. UM is mid to high in the pack because our talent isn't ready to play in the big games and then leaves. This all falls on Harbaugh's shoulders.
November 1st, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^
You don't need data or a study to know this if you are a Michigan fan.
Half the problem is attrition. Where would this team be if guys like Solomon, Simms, Hudson and many others were still on the team and producing?
We should have a two-deep loaded with 4 and 5 star guys who are upperclassmen. Instead we screw around and players leave. That 2017 class was objectively more of a disaster than anything that happened under Hoke or Rodriguez.
November 1st, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
Honest question: Do we care about players getting drafted and being chosen for all-American teams more, less, or equally than winning games, rivalry games, conference titles, and national titles?
Personally, players getting drafted really only meant to me we might see an uptick in recruiting elite players. I love seeing them play on Sunday and love seeing them succeed in the NFL, but that we are better (or worse) at getting players drafted than National champions of the last decade doesn’t mean anything to me as a fan. Love those other successes, but the correlation I care about most is how it relates to winning games and titles.
November 1st, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^
Not sure how I'd rate it, but seeing guys like Metellus (an off-the-radar recruit) get an NFL chance is awesome. Better that than seeing them "processed" SEC-style in much larger numbers than we do now.
As far as the games are concerned, let's face it: We're watching the circus. As grown-ups we should be concerned with the entertainment value and the welfare of the players (health, future). I guess we also need to fill the stadium to pay for the country-club sports. :)
November 1st, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
This is not surprising. I now think there might be more to the McCaffrey transfer. Yesterday was a great example, he would have seen the field, possibly quite significantly. Why are so many players leaving Michigan under Harbaugh?
November 1st, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
Because he doesn't know how to relate to 18 to 21 year old kids ? It's his way or the highway and we saw the end result yesterday
November 1st, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
That's only one of the questions Warde Manuel needs to ask Harbaugh. He probably won't though.
November 1st, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Good insight. I don't like using All Conference as a success indicator because I feel the voters get tired of having the same team represented and start casting some mercy votes to some lesser players. The All-American is more telling here I think.
Given FSU's coaching debacles I can see why they'd be the worst. Not sure what our excuse is.
November 1st, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
You guys are something else! We need to know that the team is young for the backfield. If Thomas didn’t leave and we would have been all over the place, beating the greenies but not this time. For the offense, we have tiny recievers running around the place, dropping passes here and there as well as overthrown balls. It is on the team to make the mistakes like that. Defense line is weak and young as well as we have Kemp leading the line as well as Payne and hutch working.
there... another thing... refs screw meeeechigan big time due holding and all. Take the loss and move on to the next game! GO BLUE!
November 1st, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
Seems you're pointing out that our recruiting has been weak. That's on the Head coach and his assistants. Will you change your tune if we lose at Indiana? The season could actually be riding on that game.
November 1st, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
I'm a harbaugh fan. I've talked to some non-UM football people, and, sigh, I think it may be time for the Univerisity and Harbaugh to search for a transition. It really pains me to come to this conclusion. A conclusion I was unwilling to make during the emotions of yesterday's loss. About 24 hours after a three and out by our defense, I thought we were going to roll sparty. Five plays later we were punting and it never improved from there. All I'm left with is that sick feeling in my stomach, and my brain racing to axioms such as "these are kids trying there best;" "this game shouldn't impact the emotions of your life;" "the unvierse does not care about football;" etc.
I think Harbaugh runs a clean program. He bleads Michigan football. I am baffled that we are not doing better. But the results are in, and cannot be ignored.
I hate to see such venom on the board. Though I've come to the conclusion of the most vocal posters (which, it should be noted, does not necessarily represent the majority of the board), I don't think a rash decision is wise. Harbaugh should be counseled by the AD to leave the program. He should assist in the transition. I cannot see a benefit of an immediate termination. Successful organizations rarely have success with that approach.
Bottom line: we still have young athletes pursuing the sport they love and want to compete at the highest level. We should support them.
I think we have a great community here, we are in understandable pain, but let's focus on optimal outcomes.
My two cents, which is likely a dollar short.
Go Blue
November 1st, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
AMEN to what you said!!!! GO BLUE!!!
November 1st, 2020 at 1:32 PM ^
Implication is Harbaugh recruits well but underdeveloped recruits. Not true. Harbaugh, has not recruited well early on, for whatever reason, playmakers - quarterbacks and running backs, which would have translated into championship caliber results we want. OSU has a ton of running back, wide receiver and quarterback talent in the NFL.
November 1st, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Harbaugh does do a good job identifying lower ranked dudes who end up in the NFL, which skews this a bit. Still not great, Bob!
The 2017 class is the one that has most tanked Harbaugh. Ex: took 8-9 DL, most highly-rated, and have Kwity and the Jeter touchdown to show for it.