SB Nation Article: 2017 college football returning production rankings
From the Article:
| Team | OFF % RET | Rk | Proj. PPG change (Off) | DEF % RET | Rk | Proj. PPG change (Def) | % RET | Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn St. | 79% | 26 | 2.6 | 68% | 55 | -0.6 | 74% | 27 |
| Florida | 81% | 21 | 2.7 | 53% | 103 | 2 | 67% | 50 |
| Wisconsin | 66% | 58 | 1.2 | 68% | 56 | -0.6 | 67% | 52 |
| Ohio St. | 68% | 50 | 1.5 | 57% | 92 | 1.3 | 63% | 72 |
| Mich. St. | 35% | 116 | -4.2 | 52% | 107 | 2.2 | 44% | 124 |
| Michigan | 46% | 99 | -1.8 | 22% | 128 | 7.9 | 34% | 127 |
Michigan ranks 3rd from bottom per their data.
"The Wolverines will continue to recruit well and should get a top-15 overall projection because of it, but a step or two backward could be in the works."
In all, the Big Ten brings up the rear when it comes to average production returning.
- Conference USA (65.6%)
- SEC (65.4%)
- Pac-12 (65.2%)
- Big 12 (64.9%)
- ACC (64.8%)
- American (62.3%)
- Sun Belt (61.7%)
- MAC (60.8%)
- Mountain West (60.5%)
- Big Ten (58.8%)
"Continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn’t have as strong an impact."
"Dissruption and continuity in the secondary are key. And the ability to get hands on passes, via interception or breakup, is harder to replicate than any other, when it comes to box-score disruption.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/1/31/14451014/2017-ncaa-football-returning-starters-experience-oregon-tcu-texas
January 31st, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
Does it matter if you're returning shitty starters? Cause I'm not exactly seeing a murders row of college football talent at the top.
January 31st, 2017 at 1:03 PM ^
Rutgers: "We're returning all 22 of our starters from last year's team!!!"
America: "Awww, well that's just super! Good for you!! We are all so happy for you and proud of you!!! Now run along, and we'll see you in a few weeks for your annual 50 point beatdown with our new freshmen starters!!!"
January 31st, 2017 at 1:23 PM ^
...and we'll still lose to Michigan by 70.
No wait, we're playing in Ann Arbor... make that 90
January 31st, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
I don't think the point is to say that FIU is the best team in the country, but there may be some utility in comparing teams liek Penn State, etc. I just thought it was a neat way to try to better quantify returning players and compare it to other teams we play.
I, for one, was suprised to see how far down MSU is on that list.
Also, they do mention this: "The Wolverines will continue to recruit well and should get a top-15 overall projection because of it, but a step or two backward could be in the works."
January 31st, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^
Nothing surprising here. McCray, Hurst, and to a lesser extent Gary are the major defensive contributors returning, and... nobody else. Huge chunks of our iffy OL graduate, as does the entire front line of pass catchers and our #1 RB. We've known this would be the case for two years.
Fortunately, there's a lot of talent coming in. I'm nervous about the D as a whole, because that's just a lot of people to replace, and particularly about the OL. However, there's a lot of talent on defense and I think another year with Don Brown coaching will help mitigate some of the challenges we will face.
But the OL could make or break next year's team. Harbaugh thinks so, too, because he re-arranged his staff just to get an extra (highly competent) OL coach on board. Everything around them is set to improve or stay the same--even losing Darboh, Butt, and Chesson, I feel really good about the guys we have ready to take their place, and either we'll have a Better Speight or a young guy that was so good in camp that he beat Better Speight straight up.
If the OL can approach the (mediocre) performance of last season's line with young guys everywhere, the offense can be as good or better than last year's. If not, it's going to be a long season.
January 31st, 2017 at 1:22 PM ^
I still have a lot of faith in Don Brown. I remember seeing somewhere that his defense seems to take a drastic step forward in the second year. It would be interesting to see where those teams stood in relation to returning starters on defense.
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January 31st, 2017 at 1:33 PM ^
I am interested, too.
I think that trend will be mitigated somewhat with Michigan. First, because he was able to install his gameplan with an unusually experienced and smart player base last year, with players ready to do what he wanted right away. I think that allowed a lot of the gains that would normally wait a season to take place right away. Second, because I suspect that in his first year he is often working with players that don't work for his system, so his second season is a step up in personnel; next season will not be a step up in personnel no matter how good the young guys are.
Just a guess. I think they'll have some issues, and I think we'll see some stuff that's really exciting. But it's really hard to tell what we will get.
January 31st, 2017 at 1:17 PM ^
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January 31st, 2017 at 1:20 PM ^
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January 31st, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^
to show how good a coach he is and whether or not scheme can overcome experience. Along with most, I too am tempering my expecatations for the upcoming season, but have confidence we will beat some teams who outrank us in "talent" and experience on paper. Of course, OL and secondary depth are the wild cards that have everyone sweating, but it would be nice to see the team playing its best football at the back end of the schedule. That would greatly boost my optimism for 2018.
January 31st, 2017 at 1:50 PM ^
the rest should be fine
the secondary is the main worry on defense
January 31st, 2017 at 2:15 PM ^
I'm actually excited for the secondary, this could be the first of 3 year "No Fly Zone" of our own. Hill and Long on the corners. Kinnel at safety with Metellus? Hudson? New guys Thomas, and St. Juste. Young for sure, but if these kids click next season then its a complete lockdown secondary. Gary and his Dline crew disrupting will always help.
January 31st, 2017 at 2:20 PM ^
January 31st, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^
January 31st, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^
Nah, you'll still get a lot of 12-1 predictions come post spring game.
January 31st, 2017 at 5:20 PM ^
Our O-line was average at best, and I don't see it getting much worse...I think Harbaugh and staff will scheme around it a bunch. We have more explosive backs this year and I expect a more explosive passing game. I would not be surprised at all if the offense gets better.
On defense we lost a bunch of talent, but I have faith in Brown. Our D-line will still be nasty, and with some faster LBs I think we can dominate up front. The secondary is worrisome only because of experience...hopefully by October they are playing like veterans.