Saturday's Rooting Guide - Bubble Edition

Morning all! Huge lineup of games today and many that will effect Michigan's chance of making the tourney. Before I get into today's game, here's a recap of where Michigan is and how last night went:
 

• As a reminder, we were watching 6 games last night. 3 of those games went Michigan's way and 3 went the other way. Seton Hall's home loss to Xavier pretty much means they have to, at a minimum, make the Big East final. Old Dominion did us a solid and gave Marshall a Quad-3 loss. Their only way in now is winning the Sun Belt. And last but not least, Lipscomb won a road game at Stetson. Why does that matter? Well, Lipscomb shot up 9 points on the NET rankings and are 1 spot away from moving from a Quad-4 win to another Quad-3 win. Every little bit counts when we're this close to the cut line. 
• Michigan's numbers stayed pretty flat last night. NET ranking is still 53. We're 44 on KenPom and 46 on Torvik
• Northwestern and Pitt both moved up 1 spot on the NET rankings, so they are that much closer to being Quad-1 wins (specifically the Northwestern game in Ann Arbor. The Evanston game is already Quad-1)

Alright, let's dive into today's games (going to try and keep this a short as possible):

• TCU at Texas Tech (TTU by 2) - 12pm EST on ESPN 2 - This is a critical game for Michigan. Texas Tech is currently 48 on the NET rankings and just ahead of Michigan in the pecking order on most bubbles. They also have 4 Quad-1 wins and this would qualify as a 5th. This might be the most important game for Michigan today. Rooting for TCU feels a bit cringe after our game on New Year's Eve but gonna have to suck it up here. 
• Clemson at NC State (NC State by 6) - 12pm on ACC Network - Clemson is a fascinating team. They have 20 wins and 3 Quad-1 wins but they also have 3 Quad-4 losses. Most brackets have Clemson right around the same place as Michigan, so we can't afford them getting a big road win like this. Go Wolfpack!
• Michigan State at Iowa (Iowa by 5.5) - 12pm on ESPN - There's honestly only one reason why this game matters: Quad-1 wins. MSU is 5 spots away from being a Quad-1 win for us. A win against the Hawkeyes on the road would likely do that. You do the math. 
• Arizona St at Arizona (Arizona by 12) - 2pm on CBS - Another really critical game for Michigan. Not only is ASU right around the same place on the bubble as Michigan, they also have a convincing win over us. We need as much distance from them as possible. A win against Arizona would be huge for their resume and we can't risk that. Rooting for Arizona here. 
• Kansas State at Oklahoma State (Ok State by 3) - 2pm on ESPNU - While Okie State has the same record as Michigan, they are ahead of us on the bubble line. Mainly because they have 4 Quad-1 wins and no Quad-4 losses. We can't afford them getting another big win. Let's go K State!
• Texas A&M at Mississippi State (Miss State by 1.5) - 3:30pm on SEC Network - Interestingly enough, this might be the most important game of the day for Michigan. On most brackets, Miss State is right at the cut line. They're 43 on the NET rankings and are 18-10 so far but also 3 games below .500 in conference play. Rooting for the Aggies here.
• West Virginia at Kansas (KU by 9.5) - 4pm on ESPN - WVU is another really strange team. Yes, the Big 12 is great this season but WVU's conference record is 5-10. Is that seriously enough to feel safely in the tournament? At some point, are there too many losses? Losing here would drop them to 16-13. We need the Mountaineers to continue to take losses, in particular today in Lawrence. 
• Syracuse at Pittsburgh (Pitt by 6) - 5pm on ACC Network - This game is the ultimate conundrum and I'll be fascinated to see what people think. We've thought all along that Pitt getting to a Quad-1 win was the most important thing. Well, we actually might be fighting with Pitt for a spot. They are right on the cut line for most brackets and with the way we beat them, might the committee put us in over them? Here's my take: we either need Pitt to win a lot or we need them to lose a lot. What we likely can't afford is Pitt just sitting still. We either want them to tank so we can pass them or we want them to win out, so that win looks as good as possible. Today's game will tell us which way this is going.
• Virginia at North Carolina (UNC by 3) - 6pm on ESPN - Fascinating game between two teams Michigan lost to in very close fashion. This is an easy one however. We're competing with UNC for a spot in the tournament. Go Hoos! 
• Indiana at Purdue (Purdue by 6.5) - 7:30pm on Fox - I'm simply listing this game because it should be fantastic! I'm not sure I have a preference, just hoping for an awesome game. Torvik seems to think we should root for Purdue, so take that for what it's worth. 
• USC at Utah (USC by 2) - 8pm on ESPNU - Another conundrum game. USC right now is on the cut line on most brackets and Utah is a bit behind us on the cut line. And this would only qualify for a Quad-2 home win for the Utes, so I'm rooting for them here. 
• San Diego State at New Mexico (SDSU by 3) - 10pm on CBS Sports Network - If I had a guess, New Mexico is going to be a team fighting with Michigan for a spot until the very end. Their 20-8 overall record is good but they have 3 Quad-1 wins and are 45 on the NET rankings. We simply cannot afford them to get another Quad-1 win today. Brian Dutcher owes us one ;) 
• Last but not least, Oregon at Oregon State (Oregon by 9) - 10pm on Pac 12 Network - Oregon is just ahead of Michigan on the NET rankings (50) and right near us on most bubble lists. Pretty simple here, rooting for Oregon State here. 

Thanks again all for the continued feedback and encouragement! Have a great Saturday!