Sam Webb: U-M Has 75% Chance of Getting Rashan Gary
Sam Webb said this morning on WTKA that Michigan's chances at getting Rashan Gary are 75-25. He also said we're up to a 50-50 chance with Isaac Nauta. Not long ago, he had that one 80-20 in favor of Georgia, but Georgia's collapse on the field has helped us.
October 27th, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
I don't see any indication that Mike Farrell is calling anyone (let alone Pie Young) "trash." He's the 67th best wide receiver in the entire country, according to Rivals.
October 27th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
Magnus in beast-mode today! I like it.
October 27th, 2015 at 4:57 PM ^
Relative trash, among ranked receivers. Academically Staee is trash relative to Michigan, but among every single university in the world they're a fine school. However, we don't care about every university in the world, we care about the ones that US New & World Report or Business Insider puts on a list. There are thousands of wide receivers playing high school football, but we probably only pay attention to MAYBE 100 receivers with reasonable D1 offers. Pie is ranked in the bottom end of that group despite having offers from coaches who everyone would agree are elite talent scouts and winners. How many receivers ranked above Young have the offers that he does?
Like I said I enjoy recruiting analytics, I frequent recruiting sites. It's fun. All I am saying is that when I come across a kid who is ranked very low (relative) that has the offers of a 5-star, I chuckle to myself thinking about a writer for Rivals/Scout/247 thinking they know talent better than an elite coach, and I hope that kid gets a chance at that big-time program to prove the analysts wrong.
October 28th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
Putting together a roster is best left to guys like Harbaugh and Saban, and i don't believe they put a high value on stars. I doubt Magnus or anyone else on this blog would argue that point. However, having a third party, if you will, collect, review, analyze and publish its ratings of a mass of high school talent situated throughout the country is a helpful recource. It's kind of like movie critics--i don't always agree with them, and they certainly can be wrong about a particular movie, but they serve a purpose. Usually, i won't change my mind about viewing a movie that said critics pan...so long as i'm interested in the film. However, on ocassion a very positive critique about a movie previously unknown to me may cause me to dig a little deeper and, possibly, go see the film.
October 27th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
not have had any 5 star recruits, but the last 20 National Champions were all dripping with 5 star recruits. Last I checked college teams aren't recruiting to win a Super Bowl.
There are a lot of variables with anyone that age so it isn't an exact science. But recruiting rankings have been the best indication of a program's level of success, and we aren't talking about a small sampling.
October 27th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
The 1998 class included Justin Fargas (No. 1 RB), David Terrell (No. 1 WR) Marquies Walker (No. 2 WR), Drew Henson (No. 3 QB) and Larry Foote (No 1 saftey).
Michigan had no problem pulling in top tier talent and being in the mix for top recruits was standard operating procedure up until we hired RichRod.
October 27th, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
it's difficult when other schools are offering money, cars, and women while michigan does it the right way
October 28th, 2015 at 8:50 PM ^
Jabrill Peppers says hi.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
hoping for higher with Gary quite frankly. Maybe I am being unrealistic.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
in being realistic? No fun at all.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:33 AM ^
I say it's no lower than 77.3%
October 27th, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^
You are both wrong, I have it on good authority that the percentage is closer to 76.3741% - approximately.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:34 AM ^
Never tell me the odds.
/Solo'd
October 27th, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
Man, the class we might end up with is amazing. All we need to do is keep winning. 9-3 with a bowl win to finish 10-3 would really show these kids where they need to come play.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^
10-2. We're beating OSU this year.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
Confidence...is very sexy.
October 27th, 2015 at 5:08 PM ^
11-2
We're winning a New Years Six bowl game this year
October 27th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
Focus, direction, discipline and accountability has returned to Michigan football. I think at least one of the two end up in A squared.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
For those of you with problems understanding probabilities - and there are many of you on here, as I learned yesterday in the "high school football deaths" thread - here is a simplified way to understand what Sam Webb is saying.
Let's say we have 4 Rashan Gary Marbles, 3 Red Rashans and 1 Yellow Rashan. We put those 4 Rashan Gary Marbles into a paper bag. We then reach our hand into that paper bag and, without looking, select one and only one of the 4 Rashan Marbles. Our odds of landing the human Rashan Gary as a football recruit are the same as the odds of us selecting a Red Rashan Gary Marble from the aforementioned paper bag. Those odds are pretty darn high.
No need to thank me, I am happy to help...
October 27th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
How big is the bag, man?
October 27th, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
I see what you did there
October 27th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
Are ours the red ones? Is the material that composes the bag important? What if it were a 100% cotton reusable bag?
October 27th, 2015 at 9:45 AM ^
on earth are these marbles red?
October 27th, 2015 at 9:54 AM ^
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October 27th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
I was going to make the marbles black and white, as that is how it normally goes in these examples. But I had a feeling that some idiot on here would have cried "RACISM!" no matter how I chose to divide the marbles. Therefore, I chose the easy way out and made them neither black nor white. :-D
October 27th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
is racist of you to even decide not to do or say something based on racial considerations. God - how can you not understand that!?
October 27th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 9:48 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^
He would but Uga X ate them all.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
But what about the size of the marbles? Do we have any of the big ones that you throw at the little ones? Or are the red ones all little ones? If so, I don't like our chances. Little marbles are less likely to get picked than big ones.
Does anyone on here even know the rules to marbles anymore?
October 27th, 2015 at 9:53 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^
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October 27th, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^
That is correct. However, while that is probably the best we can do, they are almost certainly not independent. Indeed, it is often the case that success builds success in recruiting. So if one were to drop for us first, my guess is that the odds of the second one dropping for us would improve, since they don't play the same position.
Quick, someone put together a massive Bayesian model of our odds of landing both!!! ;-)
October 27th, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^
Why do the marbles have to be red?
October 27th, 2015 at 10:15 AM ^
the yellow one?
October 27th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
October 27th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
I know. Georgia and Clemson (this year excluded) can always be counted on to disappoint.
October 27th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
hear you mention "Clemsoning."
October 27th, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
He's too busy dancing his ass off to hear what I have to say haha
October 27th, 2015 at 10:46 AM ^
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October 27th, 2015 at 9:41 AM ^
Sam, Sam, Sam. We all see what you're up to here. We all remember last year when you incrementally raised the percentage of our chance of securing Harbaugh each day at such a rate that it would reach 100% on the last Sunday in December.
There are currently 99 days until National Signing Day, so if the percentage of landing Gary goes up 0.25252525% everyday until February 3, we know we've got Gary.
Likewise, if the percentage of signing Nauta goes up 0.50505051% each day until NSD, then we know Nauta is also in the bag.
You must think we're all pretty stupid.