Rushing statistics and the offensive line
In my most recent diary, I claimed that the offfensive line was not terrible. I'm still seeing people claim that they are, so I thought I'd check some statistics. I prefer quantitative analysis over qualitative conjecture. The first thing I checked was individual rushing yards per carry.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/player/_/stat/rushing/so…
There are 124 teams in I-A. De'Veon Smith is 50th in I-A with 6.0 yards per attempt. Derrick Green checks in at #71 with 5.7 yards per attempt. So that "terrible" offensive line has allowed not one, but two running backs to be in the top 75. That's not great, but it's not terrible either. I'd say it's about average.
The other criticism you see is something like this, "of course we gained yards, we were playing Rutgers." So let's look at our opponents.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/rushing/posi…
Utah is 14th in yards per attempt, and ND is 17th. Those are two pretty good defenses. Minnesota is 45th and Rutgers is 63. Those are two pretty average defenses. And last but least, Miami (OH) is 96 and Appy State is 119. Those are two pretty bad defenses.
So in conclusion, the running game has been average against average defenses.
We are 2-4 because of turnover margin and some head-scratching coaching decisions. I think 5-7 or 6-6 are still real possibilities. Which is not what I expected coming into the season, but the offensive line is not the reason why we are underperforming expectations.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:09 PM ^
Those 60 yard runs agains App state help, but the oline is in fact improving this year. They arent the dominate force people want and every short yardage run that fails or sack gardner takes are probably sticking better in peoples mind than each quality run or every time Gardner does have enough time to throw.
Part confirmation bias, part they still arent GREAT yet but improvement is happening for sure and they should be solidly in the average category by the end of the season i think with solid upside for next year since everybody is expected to come back i believe.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:13 PM ^
we're tied for 77th place with 6 TFLs allowed per game. Mediocre? Yes. Tire fire from last season? No.
And everybody has played at least one or two games against the Appy State/Miami's of the world. I think 6 games in those things start averaging out.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^
with 10.2 per game. They might be pretty good. UCLA thinks so.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:14 PM ^
I just don't understand why people seem to have such a hard time with dominant. Is this an auto-correct thing on phones and tablets? I have to say swiftkey absolutely REFUSES to let me type what I want at times. Is this what's going on?
October 7th, 2014 at 3:40 PM ^
its a typo... dick.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:35 PM ^
Last years RB combo Toussaint/Green ran for 27 for 101 against Minnesota (3.7 ypc) and 21 for 70 against ND (3.3 ypc)
This year Green/Smith ran 15 for 63 against Minnesota (4.2 ypc) and 20 for 55 against ND (2.8 ypc).
If there is improvement, it is marginal at best. The run-blocking seems better. Pass-blocking seems worse.
According to FEI we have the 78th best offense in the country. That seems about right. If it's not the OL's fault I don't know who to blame. We've tried multiple highly recruited QBs and Gardner has proven he can play very very well at times. We have Funchess, Butt, and some talented RBs. The OC was imported from Alabama and has had plenty of success. None of these 'others' are perfect but there's no exucse for ranking 78th in the country.
I don't think there is any evidence to say they have improved when you consider that Michigan State and Nebraska games are where it became clear that this offense sucked. Last year we were 6-0 at this time and only the UConn and Akron games kept the optimistic takes (like the OPs) from being really out of control. This year we are 2-4, have been shut out. I think our sacks are up as well (though I haven't checked since before Minnesota).
If the OL is better, I'd like to see better proof than App State-inflated RB YPC.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^
Funchess has been hampered by his injury issues, and Butt is working his way back from an ACL tear. Last season we had senior Gallon along with Funchess and Butt which helped the offense significatly. We lost the single season leader in recieving yards and his replacement in Funchess has only really be healthy for the App State and ND games.
The oline is suffering at the tackle spot as we replace two NFL tackles. Pass blocking does suffer at times due to those loses, Cole being a true freshman and Braden not being the most mobile pass protector. But we can run up the middle relatively often now which NEVER worked last year.
October 7th, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^
through an honest lens, and to view it through a more positive lens. And it may just be a question of one's mood, because after the Rutgers game--as painful as it all felt--I really thought I saw a lot of reasons to be positive. (Mine would have started with all the reminders Gardner gave of what he's capable of.)
But seventy-whatever in the country and we're encouraged? We are really lowering our expectations. . . again. This just leaves us such a long way from the Michigan some of us have known and loved. And so many other facets of the game-- left, right and center--have crumbled this year that marginal improvement of the o line, improvement so marginal that we have to make up a million excuses for the why. . . not really sure that it adds up to much.
At the end of the day this team hasn't really improved. It's doing worse than last year, despite having such an obvious lot of talent. I'll be watching because it's my team, but the people who run it aren't succeeding, pure and simple.
October 7th, 2014 at 5:22 PM ^
And last year Funchess, Green, Gardner, Chesson were all a year younger and Darboh was hurt. These are circumstances that don't really affect the point.
Yes, the interior of the OL looks better (since everyone is back it is expected) and more consistent but the tackles are significanlty worse, so arguing the OL is better as a whole is highly questionable. The results don't support the hope/theory/assertion.
October 7th, 2014 at 5:27 PM ^
If we didn't have such great depth our secondary would be a tire fire. I forget who all is out but a Julius I outrun lightning peppers would have caught up and pushed a fool out of bounds.
Hill and who else is out Taylor? Thankfully we have some depth so it isn't NIGHTMARE, but no wonder when we're out 3 starters. Or am I just on crack and blame everything on the DB/Oline and any other coach who isn't Greg Mattison?
Oh and the AD, he's making the players worse by raising ticket prices.
October 7th, 2014 at 4:04 PM ^
our interior line is playing marginally better, hence our rushing is marginally better.
we lost two nfl tackles, hence our pass protection is worse.
remember, the schedule only gets tougher from here. i expect our #s to get even worse.
October 7th, 2014 at 4:53 PM ^
ND 2013: 71st rush defense
ND 2014: 9th rush defense
MN 2013: 55th rush defense
MN 2014: 35th rush defense
Mat, you are not comparing apples to apples. Both of these defenses are much better than they were last year against the run.
There has been improvement. Is it good enough? No. But there has been improvement. Nobody is endorsing the coaching because of it--it's not good enough. But it's better than last year.
October 7th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^
Minny's toughest games have yet to come; just like UM.
October 7th, 2014 at 5:18 PM ^
I'm sure that you can run a similar comp on similarly ranked opponents and get similar results.
Rutgers ranks as the #72 defense this year. Ohio State was #42 last year. 24 carries for 137 yards by our RB against OSU and 24 carries for 110 yards by our RB against Rutgers.
Notre Dame had the 30th best D last year (by FEI) and 7th best this year. We're not talking about a night and day difference, especially when you factor in the sample size issues this early in the year.
Saying our run game is significantly better is disingenious when we can't rush against good teams. Saying our OL is better as a whole is just simply not believable, but people keep asserting it as fact.
October 7th, 2014 at 6:04 PM ^
- OSU was absolutley an outlier; if we had run like that all year, no one would have complained. Pointing to that game and comparing it to Rutgers just exposes your bias.
- I never said it was significantly better; I don't think it is. But I would say there is noticeable improvement in the running game. I would not say the same about pass pro, which is about as bad as last year.
- The eyeball test is key here. If your eyes don't see improvement in the run game over last year's tire fire, then it's not worth discussing. You clearly are only seeing what you want to see.
October 7th, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^
CMU, Northwestern, and Indiana...and that's just talking RBs. Gardner seemed to use his legs a lot more last year, rushing for over 50 yards in 6 games, while this year he hasn't broken 40 yards yet.
Last year the offense was inconsistent. This year it is... just bad?
Note: I already said I thought the run-blocking was better. Pass blocking is worse. OL is overall about the same thusfar.
If, as the OP did, you want to argue the OL is better because the RBs have a better looking YPC, you are ignorning almost all the other information available (schedule, offensive effectiveness, pressure, QB effetiveness, penalties, logic, etc.)
"The eye test" is no better than saying "because I say so."
October 7th, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:10 PM ^
I did some more digging on offensive line stats:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/468/p2
We come in 74th in sacks allowed per game at 2.17. That's not great, but it's not too far from the median, 1.83. What caught my attention on that site was Michigan State being tied for 3rd in fewest sacks allowed per game at 0.6. I suppose that's because they are blowing everyone (except Oregon) out and don't need to pass much.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
i dont give a shit about the sacks per game.. It is more about how many times gardner is either hit or hurried every single game.. The pocket is so small if u sit and watch any of the games.
I went back and watched a couple years ago when we played Iowa at home when gardner took over as the QB... Watching the O-line play is night and day difference..
And magically so was gardners play because of it.. He looked comfortable and completed a lot of passes with ease..
You can also see how much faster Gardner was a few years ago compared to now when he takes off running
October 7th, 2014 at 3:51 PM ^
Iowa at home had 3 seniors on the inside of the line with Lewan and Schofield on the outside, they were really good at pass protection IMO. I agree that Gardner had looked slower the first couple games, but this last game he had a couple of those moments where you saw the same speed on his runs.
October 7th, 2014 at 4:14 PM ^
Seems like Gardner getting caught earlier in the year had to do with trying to play within the new system and not trying to freelance, which lead to some more hesitant runs...and Jaylon Smith chasing him...
October 7th, 2014 at 6:30 PM ^
This is pretty much my point. Sacks allowed, ypc, etc are nice measurables, but the real issue here is the pressure DG has been under. Teams know they can get to the qb, and they do at ease. Our sacks allowed figure would be much higher if not for Gardner's athletic ability.
But the hits add up. A talented qb can have so little faith in his line that instead of looking downfield for open recievers, he has one eye on the line. This results in turnovers, missed reads, a total lack of comfort from your qb. Last year we lost because we had no run game. This year we lose because we have no ability to throw the ball downfield.
So yes, the line has improved in the run game, however, all gains are then surrendered by the sorry state of pass protection. DG's struggles are because he has been beaten to a bloody pulp last year and this year.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^
State doesn't need to pass much? Their run game isn't very good if you have watched most of their games..
Most of their big plays and yardage have been from passing plays
October 7th, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^
Woof.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
312 players who qualify. That puts the median guy at 156, James Flanders (NTF) at 4.7 YPA. So Green and Smith have actually been doing 1 YPA better than the median runner.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:18 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:25 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:58 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:19 PM ^
Wish they gave OL stats. When I played, one of the assistants used to take count during film of who got the most pancakes and bought that person a pancake breakfast.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:21 PM ^
Yeah, we are improving. We just have to get better at playing to our strengths. PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, ROLL DEVIN OUT!!!
October 7th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:27 PM ^
Interesting that you should mention Cobb, as he's between Smith and Green on the list at #63, with 5.8 YPA. He got the ball 32 times against us. I think Smith got 9 carries. That's on the coaching staff, not the o-line. The other thing about the Minnesota game is do you think they were gearing up to stuff the run knowing we were giving our 2nd string QB the start?
October 7th, 2014 at 4:04 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 4:50 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 5:16 PM ^
Not sure what that means, but it still happened.
I think it was still evident that Morris was struggling in the passing game and the line was stacked against Smith yet he was our only offense against Minnesota. On the lone TD drive, he had all the carries, yards, and got the score with some nice power running.
October 7th, 2014 at 5:20 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:27 PM ^
I want to add onto that Roll devin out remark and say roll devin out to the side that's not stacked or looking like a LB is mashing his teeth getting ready to tear off his nuts the moment the ball is snapped and no one blocking him
October 7th, 2014 at 3:36 PM ^
October 7th, 2014 at 3:40 PM ^
Appreciate the update. I'm looking for some improvement from last year any way I can get it. If this season is lost, I'm really just hoping for some positive trajectory for next year that the next coach can build on.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:41 PM ^
"Lies, damn lies and statistics" Mark Twain If we can't convert a stinking 3rd and 2 at a critical point in the game then we can't block.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:41 PM ^
I think the big problem for this team is consistency. Green or Smith can rattle off a 22 yard run that looks awesome, then turn around and run twice for two yards total. That's an 8 yard average per carry, but it just left us with a 3rd and 8 - cue the passing game...
October 7th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^
I might do some more digging tonight and make a spreadsheet in this light. Here's the first drive from the Utah UFR -
1st and 10
Pass, Funchess 14 yds
1st and 10
Run, Green 2 yds
2nd and 8
Run, Green 3 yds
3rd and 5
Run, Gardner 20 yds
1st and 10
Run, Green 7 yds
2nd and 3
Run, Green -1 yd
3rd and 4
Pass, Butt 4 yds
1st and 10
Run, Gardner 1 yd
2nd and 9
Run, Green 1 yd
3rd and 8
Pass Inc
FG
So while I agree with you that there has been some improvement, mostly along the lines of what Brian predicted in his season preview, (we've become mid 70's ranked in rushing from the 100+ ranked rushing team we were last year) it hasn't been consistent enough for us to finish what we start.
October 7th, 2014 at 4:22 PM ^
I agree with you. That's why the Lions with Barry Sanders never did much. He was incredible, but all too often backtracked to find something and ended up losing five yards and killing a drive. That's why I also looked at TFLs. We need an advanced stats page that shows YPA with the sigma. I'd bet 5 +/- 1 YPA is a lot better than 5 +/- 3 YPA for the reasons you gave.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:45 PM ^
So far, THAT is the only significant difference between this year and last year. THAT is why the RB stats look respectable. Last year we ran on Indiana, Minnesota, and CMU too. It's when MSU and Nebraska came to town that we couldn't do anything.
Talk to me after the MSU game. Last year Fitz ran for 2.5 ypc against them. If Smith can top that this year, I'll believe you that the OL is run-blocking better. If Gardner is not sacked time and time again and does better than 7.8 ypa against MSU, I'll believe you that they are pass-blocking better.
Until then, you're pulling statistics out without the appropriate context.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:47 PM ^
Here here! Or is it hear hear? Always uncertain about that one.
Either way, I think our Oline has been solidly average this season, a far cry from last year. Yes App state is inflating the YPC a bit, but every team in the country has played at least a couple of cupcakes. Add in the fact that Minnesota had no respect for Shane Morris and personally I feel pleased with the progress the line has made.
In fact, the real tire fire part of our offense has been the passing game. For the season we are sitting at 6.5 yards per attempt. I am at work and don't have the time to put that number in perspective, but I am pretty sure that is a dismal, depressing number. Especially in the context of having a 5th year senior QB and a future NFL draft pick at WR.
Sigh, I always end on a depressing note even when trying to say one part of our team isn't as bad as people think. #thanksDaveBrandon
October 7th, 2014 at 3:54 PM ^
Only fair to note that Gardner's YPA is 7.6, which is much more reasonable. Still hasn't been very good for what was supposed to be the strength of our offense.
October 7th, 2014 at 3:52 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
October 7th, 2014 at 4:20 PM ^
teamrankings.com has Michigan at 4-8 for most likely and 4-8 for bad luck FWIW. According to the computers there, good luck is a 5-7 season and a miracle is 6-6. Of course a melt down is 3-9, but duh. Looking at the schedule we would need 3 more wins -
Home games vs Indiana, Maryland, and Penn State - pick one that we actually don't turn the ball over and we can win.
Road games vs MSU, OSU, and NW - there's a chance that Northwestern lays a turd as they sometimes do plus that's almost a home game anyways.
I would say that 5-7 is most likely with 6-6 as possible but not unless we start scoring more than 25 points per game.