Recruiting rankings and the race for #1....

Submitted by Champeen on

Since so many people (and analysts wrongfully steering Michigan fans, giving false hope!) believe Michigan has a shot at the #1 class, i figured i would do a post stating why Michigan, bluntly, will not have the #1 class.

Michigan currently sits #2 in the nation with 264.6 points, distant #2 from #1 LSU with 281 points.

IF Michigans final 2 lands are Rashan Gary, Chase Allen and Jonathan Jones, We end with 276.53 points, still behind LSU.

EVEN IF we lose a current recruit (take our lowest rated, Weaver) and gain a better recruit (take Donald Stewart), that only gives us a slight bump to 276.63.  Swapping a guy like SPS for Hill only gives a minor bump also.

LSU has 261.74 points and only 18 recruits.
FSU has 260.38 points with 18 recruits.
Georgia has 257 points with ONLY 16 recruits (real shot at #1 class)
Ole Miss has 255.5 points with 20 recruits.
Bama has 253 points with 17 recruits.

Its highly likely all of those teams pass us. Potential for a few more to leap us also.

To also put this into prospective, last years recruiting winner and runner up, Bama and USC, finished with 311.08 and 310.7 points respectively. Our projected finish of about 276.5 points would have put us at 10th in last years top 10 based on points.

With that said, some years #1's are better than other years #1.  I almost propose a 6 star system (i know, i know, ridiculous and overboard!).  But if a guy is rated #1 across EVERY service (or hell, #1 in 3 of the 4) then give him a 6th star and worth 50 points instead of 30.

In closing - ignore the analysts (and fans) stating Michigan has a shot at the #1 class.  I know most of you veteran star gazers know this already, but for the new ones, this will save you from getting your hopes crushed when we lose the all important national recruiting championship :)  But don't let a finish outside the top 5 fool you either - this is a very, very solid class.  Harbaugh definitely took some 3 stars he really, really liked ahead of some 4 stars (and maybe a 5*?) that would have this class looking better on a piece of paper, but not on the field.

MGoBoard

MeanJoe07

January 11th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

What career path is the highest paying, but requires the least amount of time and stress with no more education than a normal bachelors or possibly a MBA?

Joined: 09/15/2013

MGoPoints: 73337

Blue4U

January 11th, 2016 at 4:14 PM ^

That was a stressful year with the x and her drama.  My highest is 300K+.  I like to make about $500+/day.  Comes out to about 125K-200K.  I really don't need to make much more than that.  I live in the Thumb in a farming community so my money goes along way. 

Joined: 09/13/2011

MGoPoints: 4616

Franz Schubert

January 11th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^

that Michigans class is being inflated by the volume of recruits. The sheer number of recruits is actually bogging the individual recruit average ranking down moreso than proping up the overall class rank. To illustrare this consider that OSU has 18 commits and Michigan has 24 at this point. If you use the 247 consensus class calculator it allows the adding and deleting of commits. Just for reference, since OSU has 18 commits, I deleted the bottom 6 recruits from Michigans class in order to get a direct comparison with OSU. Counting only the highest 18 commits, Michigans class is still at #5 overall and trails OSU 261.74 to Michigan 257.50. The Michigan average recruit rank is around 91.0 which is very close to the OSU average of 91.18. In conclusion, the prevailing thought that Michigan has more quantity than quality is not true as the bottom of the class is contributing very little to the class rank, and is dragging down the average recruit ranking. The #5 overall class without 6 commits is very impressive.

Joined: 07/20/2009

MGoPoints: 4453

Franz Schubert

January 11th, 2016 at 1:35 PM ^

LSU leads the country with (14) 4 stars and (1) 5 star for 15 total. Michigan has the second highest number of 4 star or above recruits with (14) 4 stars. OSU is third with (12) 4 stars and (1) 5 star for 13 total. 

Joined: 07/20/2009

MGoPoints: 4453

bluebyyou

January 11th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^

I don't care if we are no. 1.  I want the talent that we get, and it will certainly be good, to be developed to the fullest extent possible, unlike what was done under Hoke.

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: 18697

coachdad

January 11th, 2016 at 12:05 PM ^

I think we all put too much stock in the overall rankings of recruiting classes. How many of those 4 stars end up being busts, and how many of the three stars end up being really good. I know this gives us all something to talk about right now, but I am much more concerned with the rankings at the end of the season than i am the recruiting rankings. All these rankings mean are that these guys are predicted to be good players, it doesn't mean much beyond that.

Joined: 12/10/2015

MGoPoints: 194

ak47

January 11th, 2016 at 12:09 PM ^

Except pretty much every national champion has multiple classes of top 10 recruiting when they win.  Msu vs Alabama this year is what happens when two good coaches go up against each othet but one has better talent.  You can coach up guys all you want to be a good program, to be great and beat the actually elite teams you alse need elite talent.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

PutInPeters18

January 11th, 2016 at 12:12 PM ^

Individual recruiting rankings don't mean that much, but collective team rankings those matter. I mean just look at the top 10 teams every year. Those schools almost always are highly successful. we definitely want to be challenging for the #1 overall class. It also builds hype/momentum among other recruits. HS kids want to be #1...

Joined: 12/27/2014

MGoPoints: 508

funkywolve

January 11th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^

but how you do in recruiting plays an important role in where you end up at the end of the season.  As we've definitely learned, how well a coaching staff can develop recruits once they are on campus is a huge key to a successful program.  The top programs generally are very good at both player development and recruiting.  The teams that are consisently in the Top 10 and competing for natioanl titles are usually the teams that are cleaning up when it comes to recruiting.

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20263

rs207200

January 11th, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^

There is empirical evidence that 5* are more likely than 4* who are more likely than 3* etc. at being great football players.  Stars matter.  

People always point to the JJ Watts and Jake Long that "stars don't matter."  They don't point to the fact that nearly 50% of 5* make the NFL or that for every "Jake Long" there are 100s of 3* that don't even get a sniff at the NFL level. 

One other thing that people get wrong is when they say, LOOK the 1st Round of the NFL Draft had "only" 5* players, yet 10 3* or lower players.  The difference is that there are 30 5* players a year and about 1,500 3* and 2* players. 

Joined: 04/26/2011

MGoPoints: 1904

Bocheezu

January 11th, 2016 at 12:19 PM ^

After spending the last seven years laughing at our recruiting classes and how STARZ DON'T MATTER, they've suddenly changed their tune after they got trucked by Alabama.  3 stars can only take you so far (first round of the CFP apparently), at which point, you're going to hit a brick wall.  A couple years ago, I analyzed the average stars for each national champion's starting lineup.  I should do it over again, but I seem to remember it was just a hair under 4.0.  A few less 5-stars than 3-stars.  Which is basically the best from 4 top-5 classes.

So no, you don't need STARZ to win the Big Ten, but you do need them to beat Alabama.

Joined: 02/22/2009

MGoPoints: 2154

ak47

January 11th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^

so peoples plan for getting us a top class is for Harbaugh to pull scholarship offers from a bunch of committed kids less than a month before signing day.  Thats pretty cool.  Hopefully people on this blog get off their high horse if that happens.

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614

ak47

January 11th, 2016 at 2:29 PM ^

We need more than two to leave before we get to where we need to.  And Weaver is looking around because Harbaugh stopped talking to him.  That is a pretty childish way to handle the situation.  Recruiting is shady, I get that, but people on here take the high road a lot.  You shouldn't offer a kid a scholarship unless you are prepared to say yes when he accepts.  And if he says yes and you accept you sure as hell shouldn't revoke that scholarship when someone you lik better comes along with 3 weeks to go before signing day when other opportunities the kid has turned down because they expected to go to michigan are now gone.  And it seems like that is the plan for this year.  I don't love it.

 

Joined: 05/05/2011

MGoPoints: 33614