Recalibrating Expectations After Week One

Till I see Jim have the team ready to play on the road I’ll reserve judgement.

Nebraska’s schedule is just brutal this year as well. Buffalo (next week) was 1st in the MAC east last year with a 6-1 record and won rather convincingly 69-7 last week, so that’s far from a gimme. Northwestern and Purdue might be their only chances to get W’s, and I’m not sure they can beat Purdue but we’ll see. 
Tough games remaining for Big Red:

Oklahoma, MSU, us, then they finish the season with Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa. Ouch. 

Too soon to judge, need a couple more games to see how the defense plays against better competition, and if the offense can be explosive against better teams.

I said 10-3 at the start of the season and I say 10-3 again. Always figured Michigan would beat Washington. I have Michigan losing to Ohio State and some variation of PSU/Wisconsin/Maryland/Indiana so 2-2 against those 4. I think Michigan is better than 3/5 but the defense is still learning and the offense isn’t perfect.

I do believe that next season will see them unbeaten going into the OSU game as 2022 is the 1st time in a long Michigan will have an easier schedule. The schedule has been pretty brutal the last few years. They’ll return a lot of production in 2022. The offense will be well established and the defense will have some young guys coming up who are in their second year in the system.

I know 2021 just started so we’ll focus on that. 10-3 with a good bowl win and a good outlook for 2022 ought to help recruiting and keep Harbaugh around. 

I do not spend a lot of time expecting Michigan to lose. I also don’t think that means I have to be surprised if they lose a game.

You prepare to win the game, not go by what is on paper or by what happened last.

Expecting to win comes with preparing against defeat. Fans are so whimsical that one bad play causes them to think that the game is over, etc. Or that because last week a team played this way that this is who they will always be.

A team can play badly and not be a bad team, so changing expectations is silly because you don’t want players to fall for such thinking—oh, we can prepare less and worry less because Washington and Indiana lost, so they suck.

Week to week, prepare against defeat. Prepare with the expectation that it will lead to victory.

Case in point, saying Mertz is not a 5-star QB after one average game against a top college defense with an All American safety and high level recruits is one way to get thrashed by Wisconsin for any team who simply undervalues his ability based on a bad game.

My expectation all along is that by mid-October, we'll see a Top 25 that looks more like 1960-2019 and less like 2020. UNC, Louisiana and Indiana did their part. Iowa State is one El Assico classic away from falling back to earth.

I did not realize Washington's offense would be so weak, so I think we have a decent chance winning at home. IU and NW do not look that good and should be wins. I'm more worried about MSU and PSU on the road. I was looking at 7 wins but I suppose a win over Washington will boost us up to 8 wins. I still think we will be getting gashed on D when we play big aggressive  OL but who knows if our offense can score lots of points, we may be able to outscore the other team?

It’s too easy to make huge predictions after week one.  Remember just a year ago at this time when we took Minny to the woodshed and the hype train nearly flew off the damn tracks. We all know how that ended.  Just win the the next and keep moving forward. 

Michigan = possibly slightly better than expected

Half the schedule = demonstrably worse than expected

You play the teams on the schedule and don't feel bad about it.  Basically what Clemson will do the rest of the year.

I'm fine with sitting back and enjoying the games one at a time. This season is already immeasurably better with fans in the stands instead of cardboard cutouts.

The team has won the only game they've played. Maybe they'll win the next one.

Horrible take. To see how bad this is, one has to go back into the annals of history stretching all the way back to - last year.

STOP IT!

Nope.  No way not going to do it.  You almost had me but I’m not gonna do it. 

No way you get me to think next week is going to be anything but a shit show.  I’ve seen this movie.  I’m not going to get hurt again…

Wisconsin and Penn State are still likely losses at this point. MSU looks 50-50 but I'm leaning MSU as of now. Because even at their worst, they still find a way to beat Michigan. Rutgers looks much improved, I wouldn't count that game as gimme anymore. OSU will be murder in plain sight. Every other game looks like a lock.

Would have said wait until next week but now that won't tell us too much and is a lose-lose situation after UW's collapse against FCS Montana.

A win next week and it's , "yeah, UW isn't very good, preseason overrated"....a loss next week and it validates that we are the same old UM.

Expectations stay the same; cautiously optimistic.

This has been the entire Harbaugh era, sans the Covid year. Beat the mediocre teams and lose to the really good ones and sometimes to teams you shouldn't (PSU and MSU). 2015 - 2019 he had a .72 and change win percentage. Road woes and struggles vs. ranked teams do suck, but there was a huge overreaction in the media, and as fans, about last year. Michigan is going to be measured by wins vs OSU and Big Ten titles, of which we have none in a long time, but since year 1 we've seen Michigan dominate the lesser opponents and basically coin toss with the good ones and lose to the elite ones. 

Last year was weird, and disappointing, but my expectations will always be low until Michigan proves it can go on the road and beat a good opponent. And they'll still be low until they prove they can beat OSU.

They looked better than expected yesterday, but this is still a 7/8 win team until they prove they can go on the road and beat a quality opponent - PSU, Wisconsin didn't look overwhelming yesterday but they are still quality opponents. Sparty looked better than expected and OSU will always loom. 

Not much recalibration given a safe game plan against an inferior opponent. I haven't rewatched the defense yet, but it does look like the team has bought in and is playing with more discipline and focus. That alone leads me to say 8-4 is becoming more likely. If we're not going to trust the QB to make plays -- and that's how it seemed when the game was still close -- then we're not beating a team with comparable talent. That limits our ceiling.

Cade can make the throws. They should have involved him more when the game was close. Still, improvements related to coaching are clearly there. A fun game to watch.

Not redialing anything until the BIG schedule starts. Biggest adjustments come between week 1 and 2. Don’t read the tea leaves after one game.

Not getting to high or low after 1 week. Michigan is going to get everyone’s best shot. Sparty will be tough, PSU is a white out , Ohio St is Ohio St, Wisconsin on the road will look completely different vs Us and we haven’t won there in forever. Washington will be better this week. Rutgers looks like they are better etc, 

MSU looked way better than I expected.  They looked very good.

Washington, Indiana, Penn State, and Wisconsin all looked a lot worse than I expected.

Nebraska and Northwestern didn't look too threatening.

Ohio State didn't look like a world beater yet -- but, you know.

We'll see how all that develops going forward.

Expectations should stay at "cautiously optimistic". Michigan came out looking mostly good against Western, and considering the number of schools that struggled yesterday that's a good thing.

But we're all extremely aware that one game does not a season make.

That's true of Washington too. Sure, I think Michigan ought to be favored handily now, but that doesn't mean Washington can't win next weekend. And I really don't want DOOM and GLOOM from y'all should it be the case that Michigan happens to find itself in a tight game next Saturday. 

Scott Frost has zero emotion. He is being way too cerebral. I'm far more concerned about Greg Schiano at Rutgers than Scott Frost at Nebraska. Schiano is all about emotion. Honestly, I'm glad Rutgers it at Ann Arbor, at the Big House. Even with that, you can bet Rutgers is going to come rocking out of the locker room.

I was hoping for competence and a win, and the coaching staff exceeded that with excellent work in prep and play-calling. They consistently put the boys in a position to secede without having to do something beyond their ability. That's a refreshing change. I feel much better about the team, though the pain of the past lingers and there is still some trepidation. Let's see how the team does vs U-Dub.

I think any road game where the opponent isn’t completely terrible has to be considered at best a toss up.  E.g., Wiscy looked rotten, but I’d still favor them right now because of our past performance in away games.  10-1 going into an auto-loss against OSU would be a massive success, and that’s coming from a Harbaugh “hater”.  If he pulls out double digit wins, then I will gladly eat crow on keeping him after last season.

This thread is a metaphor for why this fanbase is delusional.  All of a sudden a lopsided scoreboard against MACtion and Michigan are world beaters? 

Ummmm, no.

If you take off the maize and blue tinted glasses, you'll see an underwhelming performance by the o-line and Dax saving the secondary's ass.  Michigan pulls that against a real time and the scoreboard is gonna get flipped.  

somewhere between 8-4, and 10-2 probably, depending on the bounces 

Well, we were 2 and 4 last year.  We also never won at home and never had the lead in a game at home last year.  Call we ecstatic just winning a game we should win. 

I think the bottom line of yesterday was that last year was a very weird year and drawing predictions from last years performance of any team is a fools errand.  We had our own coaches noting that most the time kids were not practicing for COVID protocols, which were different at every school.

All that said, I am most thankful we did not hire Matt Campbell after a COVID year.  Time may prove me wrong, but yesterday looked like coming back to reality for him.

One win over Western doesn't change any of my expectations. Still 8-4 or 9-3. Some good signs yesterday especially on the offensive side. Losing Ronnie Bell wouldn't be good though obviously.

I see us losing to msu because that’s what we do. Msu comes ready to play while we look hungover and not interested 

I was thinking 6-6/7-5 range going into yesterday’s game. With Washington and Indiana’s performance, I’m feeling more comfortable about those games. I’d include Wisconsin among them if we didn’t play in Madison, but I think it will be one of those 50/50 games. At Michigan State and At Penn State are still probably losses in my book, along with Ohio State, but 8-4/9-3 feels like a possibility now.

I expect us to be 4-0 and then we'll see how our newfound run game functions against a real Big Ten defense.  After Wisconsin we should be able to calibrate and see if we are shooting for 8-4/9-3 or 10-2+

Speaking of expectations, do we have an insider info on Bell yet?  I find it hard to believe it isn't an ACL.  He was supposed to have the MRI last night.

Lots of comments that Michigan is a [insert number of projected wins]-win team until they show otherwise. Maybe that's getting ahead of ourselves.

I'd say they're a one-win team until they show otherwise. They have an opportunity to improve that number next week. I'd like to see them do it.

Go Blue!

Have you learned nothing from the past decade? I have not raised my expectations at all based on one week. 

This is where we often get head-faked only to succumb disappointment later.  No thanks. I'll continue to take a wait-and-see approach one game at a time.  We can start patting ourselves on the back after the season is over if we have managed to accomplish any of our objectives.  Otherwise, sit tight.

Given Iowa State's 16-10 win at home over FCS Northern Iowa (28.5 underdogs), my expectations are that we will have a couple hundred fewer posts about Matt Campbell here (at least this week).  Crossing my fingers.

Be careful. I'm guessing you were recalibrating after we destroyed Minnesota in week 1 last year. How'd that work out? Nothing has changed for me.

9-3

We looked like garbage, i'll be impressed if we sneak into a bowl game.

I have no clue. It’s the first week all these teams may look completely different by the time we play.  We possibly lost our best receiver yesterday.  Michigan did what they were supposed to do yesterday.  It was pleasant to see corum yesterday and jj.  There is hope. The team had a moxy about them.  So we got that going for us….which is nice.

My expectations have not changed - I expected a win vs. WMU. On to next week....

I take positives from  yesterday but I don't see a constant ratio of runs or pass or mixtures of RPOs game by game. My expectation  is we will see  adjustments on the offense. RPOs will be added next week. How many will depend on the Defensive scheme and kind of pressure used.

 Mac knows what he's doing  with the scheme. Dax playing nearer the front end makes a great upgrade with his speed and vision. The secondary played tighter later in the 1st half and 3rd Q.  Hutchinson moving around and owning the QB was a relief to my eyes. A defensive change that brought pressure is welcome.

As far as what to expect going forward. I don't expect to watch a poor defense and I don't expect to watch a poor offensive line. We won't win every down but these guys have a good year ahead if they stay healthy.

The Western Michigan game is different than the opener against Mini last season IMO..  WM had a prolific pass attack. It was our defensive adjustments that shut them down. While the Michigan run game was legit without QB keepers.  Meaning, we didn't need them with success running and an 81% comp rate. 

Mini had a difficult time stopping the QB keepers which were plentiful. last year. They just couldn't account for the +1 being Milton. He passed fairly well though at 60% for 15 of 25 The threat of the QB keeper gave the Gopher defense fits. Its too bad that Milton just didn't have ability to check down receivers or drop dimes into the season.

What we saw Saturday was game management with high passing accuracy. That and an OL that worked together better than some expected. 

I only counted 2 RPOs but Cade slung it enough to show he  can check down to find the open receiver and we haven't saw that in the Gattis era until Cade. 

There are no certainties but I'm stoked to see a DC with a plan that worked to stop a very good QB. 

 Who knows what the injury demon will bring or how strong our competition is this year. Lets see what the Huskies can do with RPOs mixed in.