Ravens defensive packages and where Michigan’s players might fit in

I posted this on the 247 Michigan board and it was well received, so I thought I would share a second draft with you all as well.  I'm also curious what some of the coach types like Magnus think about where guys could fit in, and what schemes the new defensive staff might implement.  

So not knowing what schemes MacDonald might implement, I was thinking about how our existing personnel might fit into the Ravens defensive packages.  The Ravens run a 3-4 base, but the base defense is really only utilized against larger formations (12, 21, 22 personnel).  The Ravens ran the base 3-4 21.6% of time time in 2020, 11-13% of the time in 2019 (depending on source), and 16% of the time in 2018.  Check out this video for an extended explainer of the Ravens defensive formations in 2019:

The tweener DE/OLB types on the roster are now easier to slot into a position.  The viper LB/S hybrids are a bit tougher, but I’m guessing that most of them will take a shot at ILB/Will, but 1-2 might just end up at safety.  Okay, so first, the base 3-4, my guesses as to where guys will fit, and some positions labeled.

SDE: Aidan Hutchinson, Gabe Newburg, Braiden McGregor, TJ Guy
NT: Mazi Smith, Donovan Jeter, Phil Paea, Dominick Giudice
WDE/DT: Chris Hinton, Julius Welschof, Mike Morris, Kris Jenkins

SOLB/SAM/Edge LB: David Ojabo, Ben VanSumeren, Junior Colson, Tyler McLaurin
SILB/Mike: Josh Ross, Kalel Mullings, Cornell Wheeler, Jaydon Hood, Nikhai Hill-Green
WILB/Will: Michael Barrett, Anthony Solomon, William Mohan, Joey Velazquez
WOLB/Edge LB: Taylor Upshaw, Jaylen Harrell, Kechaun Barrett

SS: Daxton Hill (SS in base 3-4 packages, but maybe play Nickel more of the time), Makari Paige, Jordan Morant, Quinten Johnson, Sammy Faustin, German Green, 
FS: Brad Hawkins, RJ Moten, Hunter Reynolds, Rod Moore

CB Vincent Gray, Andre Seldon, DJ Turner, Jalen Perry, George Johnson
CB Gemon Green, Eamonn Dennis, Darion Green Warren

From our 2019 LB corps, only two guys who seem like they could even have a shot at playing OLB/Edge.  First, while I wasn’t sold on Ben VanSumeren as a 3-3-5 stack Sam, he has an interesting size and athleticism profile to play in more of an Edge role.  Second is Josh Ross.  He’s 6-2, 230ish, and could have the frame to bulk up to 240+ and play on the edge.  I also thought he struggled a bit last year, and if he gets passed up at ILB by incoming transfers or younger guys like Barrett and Mullings, maybe he can earn a living setting the edge.  I don’t know what he looks like rushing the passer from the edge, and if he’s not good at that, he’s probably not really a candidate to move to Sam, especially in the “standard Nickel” that the Ravens have been running.

The Ravens standard Nickel is a 2-4-5, which means the NT comes off the field replaced by a slot CB, the DEs function as interior linemen or DTs, and the OLBs are the edge rushers.  It’s basically a 4-2-5 where the edge rushers are standing up.  The Ravens played the standard Nickel almost 1/3rd of the time in 2019 and roughly 39% of the time in 2020.  The Ravens slot Nickel is a big physical CB, Marlon Humphrey.  My way too early guess is that Nickel will be Daxton Hill’s most frequently played position in 2021, but maybe someone like RJ Moten factors in here.  MacDonald probably prefers to play a CB here, but our lack of CB depth might force one of the many safeties into a Nickel position.

The standard Nickel is where Hutchinson’s role is a bit harder to peg.  Are you comfortable with him as one of your two interior linemen in the base Nickel, or do you think he would be better off as one of the standup edge players?  My first guess was that they’ll try to build him up from his listed weigh of 270 pounds to 280-285 and play him more inside, but that could change depending on who is added through the transfer portal or if someone else emerges as a guy they’re more comfortable with on the interior (Smith and Welschof seem like the candidates to emerge as interior guys).  Based on how I listed the 3-4 positions, Hinton and Hutchison would be the starting interior linemen in the standard Nickel.  I’m curious what you guys think about Hutchinson.  Alternatively, you could keep Hutchinson on the outside in the Nickel instead of being married to the idea of moving the 4/5 Techs inside in the standard Nickel.  IF you run these Ravens schemes, where do you think Hutch would be the best fit?  Most of the NFL draft sites list him as an EDGE, and I saw one that projected him as a 5 tech DE.

The Ravens also have a Jumbo Nickel.  In this package, they take off one of their ILBs and keep three defensive linemen on the field.  This is KIND of a 3-3-5, but it’s not a stack, because they’re keeping the OLB/DE types on the edge close to the line of scrimmage (and in the video, a safety lines up near where the Will would be).  If you think of the 2-4-5 as pretty much equivalent to the 4-2-5, this Jumbo Nickel is more like a 5-1-5, but the edge guys should have more competency than an anchor sized DE when dropping into a zone or into the flat.   They played this package about 9% of the time in 2019 and 8.24% of time in 2020.  They play this package to stop the run against 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE).

The standard Dime package was used 23% of the time in 2019 and 16.2%, and it can feature 1 DL and three OLB edge rushers, two DL and two OLB edge rushers, or four OLB edge rushers.  This was used to matchup against 4 WR sets, and the Ravens ran both 4 CB and 3 S variants.

The Ravens also ran a big Nickel package about 5% of the time in 2019, and only 0.63% of the time in 2020.  This was more common against two TE offenses where they want to be stouter against the run.  Here, they play a Safety at the Nickel instead of the slot CB, but they basically maintain the 2-4-5 look.  They ran this package more frequently early in 2019, but dropped the look after some injuries to their safety core.  Maaaybe a guy like Solomon or Mohan plays some Nickel in this package, but this is usually a safety, and not so much a safety/LB hybrid.

Of course, Mike MacDonald is his own man.  He might have some different ideas about defensive personnel groupings, formation, and schemes.  Maybe they have a role where Hutchinson sets the edge in the base Nickel package instead of playing inside most of the time.  He’s one of those rare guys who could play DE, RLB, or even DT (not NT) with some extra bulk.

Ken McKusick over at FilmStudyBaltimore.com is a charting maniac, so I just threw his numbers in Excel to figure out what defensive packages the Ravens ran the most in 2020, including the playoff games.  His website is also where I found the video posted earlier.

3-4 Base: 21.63%

Nickel Packages: 60.18%

Dime Packages: 16.2%

The remaining ~2% was a mix of goal line, quarter, and a handful of alternate base looks (like, they throw in a random 4-3ish look)

The Nickel is a pretty big percentage, so here's what that breakdown looks like:

Standard Nickel (2-4-5 with 2 DL, 2 OLB/Edge, 2 ILB): 38.91%

Jumbo Nickel (3-3-5 with 3 DL, 2 OLB/Edge, 1 ILB): 8.24%

Big Nickel (Safety instead of slot CB): 0.63%

Rush Nickel (1 DL, 3 OLB/Edge types, 2 ILB): 5.88%

Racecar Nickel (1 DL, 4 OLB/Edge types, 1 ILB): 6.52%