Rankings Roundup after Week 11: CFP, AP, SP+ (Bonus graphs edition)

I had lots of things I’ve been wanting to look at this week, so I added a few more graphs. It may be a bit too much but I’m just going to throw it all in there. 

COMPARING CFP, AP, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)

Hey CFP Committee: rank James Madison, you cowards! The NCAA is screwing these kids based on some stupid rule. Force them to make the right decision.

Here’s the SP+ profile of the CFP top 25.

For those that want to keep track, here is the number CFP top-25 teams by conference:

• SEC: 6
• Pac 12: 5
• Big 12: 5
• B1G: 4
• ACC: 3
• Independent: 1
• AAC: 1

SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)

Focusing on the SP+ …

It took some time, but USC has finally done it. They've achieved the inverse Iowa.

If anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:

• #2 Georgia @ #16 Tennessee
• #9 Washington @ #14 Oregon State
• #22 Utah @ #32 Arizona
• #18 North Carolina @ #20 Clemson
• #23 UCLA @ #24 USC
• #17 USC @ #4 Oregon

Meanwhile, in the B1G…

I’m just gonna channel my inner Biff Poggi here and say ‘Quit whining and get better teams!’

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 9

Connelly noted that #1 Michigan is about the same distance from #5 Penn State (8.7 points) as #5 PSU is from #19 Ole Miss.

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

• Top-right: Good at offense and defense
• Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
• Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
• Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.38 standard deviations above the the average SP+ offense, and 2.41 standard deviations below (this is good) the average SP+ defense.   

Only 3 B1G offenses are above the P5 average. The four worst SP+ offenses in the P5 are all in the B1G. 

I also thought it would be interesting to compare this current graph to previous years’ playoff teams, semifinalists, and CFP champions. The graphs below are the same as above, with year-based standardized coefficients. So, for example, Alabama’s 2017 offense was 1 standard deviation above the average 2017 offense, and their defense was 2.5 standard deviations below (in the good direction) the average 2017 defense. 

 

 

Since these z-scores are year specific, it isn’t possible to make direct comparisons between the teams across years (the average offense and defense scores as the baseline comparison change every year). But if we did make comparisons, which we definitely shouldn’t, Michigan’s current offense and defense would compare favorably. It would be to the right and just a bit below Georgia’s 2021 team. 

But we are not making comparisons. Unless we are. Which we are not. 😊

Oregon, Georgia, and Ohio State also match the profile of previous CFP champions.

SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference. 

And since people like to see it, here’s the graph after conference realignment. It looks like USC and UCLA 

And just for the hell of it, let’s see how these shit bottom of the barrel B1G teams compare to non-P5 schools.

The bottom five teams in the B1G—Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, MSU, and Indiana—are bad. I mean, bad as in none of them would be higher than:

• 4th place in the CUSA or MAC
• 5th place in the AAC or MWC
• 6th place in the Sun Belt

Bad as in Northwestern, Purdue, MSU, and Indiana are the same as the average Sun Belt team. We could also say the same thing about the ACC and PAC (to a lesser extent), but I’m talking about the B1G now.

Hell, James Madison (let them play a bowl you cowards), SMU, or Liberty (barf!) would be the 4th best SP+ teams in the B1G.

Quit whining and get better teams!

 

Thanks for reading.

Go Blue!