Projected strength of 2014 CFB season from Football Outsiders
The guys at Football Outsiders have projected strength of schedule based on projected FEI rankings for the 2014 season. You can read about it here and here, and they have a fancy visualization of it here, but for those who don't want to read through the articles, here's the most relevant info:
| Rank | Team | SOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Utah | .063 |
| 2 | Auburn | .063 |
| 3 | Florida | .068 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | .073 |
| 5 | Tennessee | .073 |
| 6 | Stanford | .074 |
| 7 | Arkansas | .081 |
| 8 | California | .089 |
| 9 | Washington State | .090 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | .096 |
| 31 | Indiana | .178 |
| 33 | Rutgers | .196 |
| 35 | Illinois | .213 |
| 36 | Michigan State | .213 |
| 38 | Michigan | .214 |
| 48 | Maryland | .240 |
| 50 | Minnesota | .259 |
| 51 | Nebraska | .269 |
| 62 | Penn State | .319 |
| 63 | Northwestern | .329 |
| 65 | Purdue | .343 |
| 67 | Ohio State | .360 |
| 72 | Wisconsin | .370 |
| 98 | Iowa | .560 |
SOS = "the likelihood than an elite team (two standard deviations better than average) would go undefeated against the given team's entire schedule. Stronger schedules have smaller SOS ratings."
Additionally, they have some other interesting statistics. Against Michigan's schedule,
- 60.7% is the likelihood that an elite team would lose one game or fewer.
- 88.3% is the likelihood that an elite team would lose two games or fewer.
- 0.2% is the likelihood that a good team (one st. deviation better than average) would go undefeated
- 4.9% is the likelihood that a good team would lose one game or fewer.
- 20.6% is the likelihood that a good team would lose two games or fewer.
- 50% is the likelihood that a good team would lose three games or fewer.
- 75% is the likelihood that a good team would lose four games or fewer.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
It looks like OSU is primed again to take advantage of a weaker schedule. If I recall correctly, their schedule strengths for the last two seasons were in the bottom half rankings as well.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:29 PM ^
I think with the major losses at the OL and a suspect back 7, OSU would be a 3 loss team with a normal schedule. But I look at their schedule and I find it so easy, it is difficult to find losses but I think they still could be upset by a team or two.
If I had a firm belief our OL would improve substantially from game 1 to game 12, I think based on what they return and what we return, I think this is the year we could go down there and beat them. They have 2 elite units - DL and QB. I am sure they have some very high ranked RBs but they lost a horse, and their WRs have not impressed for a few years. But right now our OL doesn't allow me to have this belief yet.
Potential OSU losses:
- @MSU
- UM
- @Minn
- @PSU (revenge game for last year's beatdown)
- maybe @Maryland if Maryland breaks out uniforms confusing enough
That's about all I can say with a serious face. Virginia Tech seems very mediocre right now so I don't see them going into the horseshoe and making hay.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^
I agree about Va. Tech. On paper it's a bigger name match up but they're not exactly a powerhouse at the moment. I'm not sure what to think about their MSU match up. I'm predicting that MSU's defense will come to earth a little bit this season but they will perhaps have an improved offense. I think OSU takes that one. As far as UM, it's going to be riding 100% on how the O line comes together, like you mention. If it clicks I think we have enough on the team as a whole to win that one.
August 13th, 2014 at 4:55 PM ^
Michael Vick days and on. Their time as an elite team has passed. They'll have good defenses, but they aren't going to be BCS regulars like they were in the 2000s anymore
August 13th, 2014 at 3:43 PM ^
Navy and Virginia Tech will give them a hard time, especially Navy in the first game. They did get lucky with the B1G schedule by not having to play: Wisconsin, Nebraska or Iowa.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:45 PM ^
August 13th, 2014 at 4:12 PM ^
Guess I was looking at last years schedule, thought we played Iowa.
Basically we have the same schedule except for The Game being played in Columbus. It's about time we win there. Seriosuly, the last time that happened, I was still in high school and Drew Hansen was our starter. :(
August 13th, 2014 at 4:44 PM ^
It was so long ago we've forgotten how to spell Drew Henson ;)
August 14th, 2014 at 2:50 AM ^
I was at that game. Haven't been back. Maybe I should go.
August 13th, 2014 at 4:29 PM ^
August 14th, 2014 at 12:37 AM ^
August 13th, 2014 at 5:36 PM ^
August 13th, 2014 at 3:04 PM ^
For those that are reluctant to link through, the visualization of this is pretty neat. You can limit it to one conference and then click on individual teams to see the interconnections between conferences (OOC schedules basically) which comprise the whole of the SOS ranking essentially. If you're not so much into the numbers per se, this might be a great way to look at it.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:22 PM ^
August 13th, 2014 at 3:34 PM ^
Made with real panther bits so you know it works.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^
Surprised at the ND rating but didnt realize they had FSU on their schedule this year as they get all "ACC'd". They also play Arizona State which was a quality Pac 12 team last year, along with Louisville - although not sure how good Louisville will be without Bridgewater and Charlie Strong. They do have their normal USC and Stanford along with Northwestern. Pretty tough overall, esp if USC shows any life. So that is 2 long trips to the west coast where Midwest teams usually don't thrive plus a trip down to Tallahassee.
August 13th, 2014 at 3:49 PM ^
August 13th, 2014 at 4:09 PM ^
Hadn't looked at ND's schedule before now:
vs. Rice  |
Notre Dame, Ind. | 3:30 p.m. ET | |
| 09/06/14 |
vs. Michigan |
Notre Dame, Ind. | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| Shamrock Series | |||
| 09/13/14 |
vs. Purdue |
Indianapolis, Ind. (Lucas Oil Stadium) |
7:30 p.m. ET |
 |
|||
| 09/27/14 |
at Syracuse |
East Rutherford, N.J. (MetLife Stadium) |
TBA |
| 10/04/14 |
vs. Stanford |
Notre Dame, Ind. | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| 10/11/14 |
vs. North Carolina |
Notre Dame, Ind. | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| 10/18/14 |
at Florida State |
Tallahassee, Fla. | TBA |
| 11/01/14 |
vs. Navy |
Landover, Md. (FedEx Field) |
8:00 p.m. ET |
| 11/08/14 |
at Arizona State |
Tempe, Ariz. | TBA |
| 11/15/14 |
vs. Northwestern |
Notre Dame, Ind. | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| 11/22/14 |
vs. Louisville |
Notre Dame, Ind. | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| 11/29/14 |
at USC |
Los Angeles, Calif. |
TBA |
...legit brutal. Could lose 6.
August 13th, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
Yes I just looked at the "name" schools on first glance of ND schedule but in theory any game outside of Purdue could be a loss on that schedule. Teams like Navy, Syracuse, or North Carolina are not great but could be tricky. And they don't have a let up week in that schedule between Stanford and USC... I mean going to Navy in Maryland is the one "letup" game. It might be a case of just wearing down. They do have a bye week in between FSU and Navy but that's about the only break they get.
August 13th, 2014 at 10:03 PM ^
A trip to Oregon is the only game they MAY not be favored to win.