Preseason SP+ Projections - Michigan #9
Bill Connelly is now at ESPN, and with that he has taken his projections with him. Although now rebranded to SP+ because of copywrite reasons.
Here's the B1G:
Ohio State (7)
Michigan (9)
Wisconsin (14)
Penn State (16)
Michigan State (23)
Iowa (25)
Minnesota (30)
Nebraska (39)
Purdue (48)
Indiana (51)
Northwestern (63)
Maryland (68)
Illinois (92)
Rutgers (111)
August 28th, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
Poor Rutgers.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:16 AM ^
More like Buttgers amirite?
August 28th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^
I think they got kicked in the Nutgers.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:40 AM ^
Rutger gets to be in a conference they are universally unqualified for - more like Poor Big Ten. We have to trade playing real B10 teams and rivalry games for a pile of flaming garbage in New Jersey every year. Thanks Delany, you fuck.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:45 AM ^
Look on the bright side. Michigan gets a D2 level team, usually, late in the season just like the SEC teams.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^
Truly an upside to Rutgers that I've never ever thought of before. Excellent point!
August 28th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
Hey at least they're not last lol
August 28th, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
Nine is an ok place to start. We will finish higher.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
Paul Finebaum disagrees. He just said Michigan is the 4th best team behind Clemson, Alabama and Georgia. LOL.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
I wouldn't call that disagreeing.
August 28th, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
I'm confused. I thought ol' Pete compared us to "the loudmouth who sits at the end of the bar." Maybe that was last year's comment.
August 28th, 2019 at 1:13 PM ^
Forgive me piggybacking, but for people who really want to know what the SP+ IS, here's Connelly's description:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/10/13/16457830/college-f…
August 28th, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^
Thanks for posting...although it's too bad Connelly doesn't go into details as to how he gets the numbers. Although I get it as it's a proprietary formula. But I do admit it's disappointing it only wins at a 51-54% percent clip against the spread. After reading that it doesn't make me care that much about the rankings...especially preseason rankings.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:18 PM ^
That is a phenomenal record against the spread.
August 29th, 2019 at 9:03 AM ^
I'm sure if you went to Vegas and put up those numbers against the spread all year you'd be so mad, wouldn't you?
August 28th, 2019 at 9:15 AM ^
Florida #6. Good reminder of the limitations of all rankings. They looked terrible.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:20 AM ^
Either Iowa is going to be worse than I expected or MSU is going to be better. We'll see if there's a Sparty renaissance but I would take Iowa to exceed that win total and Sparty to fall just short.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
Assuming Mork can keep his voodoo over James Franklin going, their schedule looks like 9-3 or 8-4 to me. Yes, the offense will not be great but the last two times (12 and 16) MSU was inferior they had good bounce back seasons. If anything I would bet the over on 7.6 if I read the chart correctly. Their defense coupled with the skill position players on offense remaining healthy should be enough to beat Tulsa, WMU, ASU, IU, Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland. That means you only need to find one win against NW, OSU, Wisconsin, PSU and Michigan. I can easily see them beating Franklin at home since Mork seems to own him. That’s 8.
9 might be a tough ask, but I don’t think it’s impossible.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:50 AM ^
Yeah it just feels like a roll of the dice season still unless they've found some weapons on O and the O-lIne isn't terrible.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:20 AM ^
Sparty could very well lose to ASU, IU and Maryland...heavy lean on losing to Maryland.
August 28th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
I highly doubt MSU suffers the same level of attrition as they did last year. They were absolutely destroyed by injuries. Also, they aren't playing at ASU this year.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:22 AM ^
Sigh, once again most difficult schedule in relation to the rest of the division contenders and rivals. And man, Minnesota misses UM, OSU and MSU this year. They're sitting pretty in that division title race.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
The two game stretch of @ PSU and then hosting ND after they are coming off of a bye week adds to the challenge of the schedule. The big games are primarily at home this year but those two weeks stand out.
August 28th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
Notre Dame 12
Army 85
MTSU 101
August 28th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
Interesting about Army, especially since they have been getting Preseason Polling Votes and ranked around 30.
August 29th, 2019 at 3:04 AM ^
In a different article it sounds like Connelly is saying his rankings for them may not be accurate. Their 3rd down conversion rate drags them down, but they go for it and are successful on 4th all the time. He doesn't go into detail though.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
Based on these projections, Michigan would be favored in every game. Albeit, the margin would be very slim (one point or less) against Wisconsin, Penn State, and Ohio State.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Too high for Wisconsin - one certain RB gets dinged and they won't beat anyone.
August 28th, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^
They probably have another one somewhere. Just plug in.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
8 of the top 13 are SEC teams. ESPN owns the SEC network. Sounds legit.
August 28th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
Basically beat OSU, win conference.
Same as it was, same as it will be.
August 28th, 2019 at 12:17 PM ^
Has anyone been able to find the more detailed data he used to have in Google Sheets? Offense, Defense, etc.
August 28th, 2019 at 1:09 PM ^
Everyone likes to put Rutgers down but I think it's hugely helpful to have some easier games in the Big Ten. If the goal is to make the national championship then adding another good team to us already playing the 7,14, 16, 23, 25 ranked teams in addition to Notre Dame is likely not a good idea. Clemson and Alabama have much easier schedules on average.
August 28th, 2019 at 5:08 PM ^
At the end of the year, Michigan fans are going to be asking who was the goddamn idiot who thought scheduling ND late in the season was a good idea.
August 29th, 2019 at 2:43 AM ^
Watching our highlights vs Michigan State our offense was fucking atrocious even with as good as States defense was.
We were running zone read out of he flex formation after taking up the entire play clock at the line of scrimmage allowing the defense to key on everything. Play action bootleg on 3rd and 3 on the 20. Msanwhile you got Nico Collins and DPJ getting the ball thrown to them twice a game.
Harbaugh called plays like I call plays when I play Madden because i suck at it and dont wanna turn the ball over.
If our offense is in anyway competent against good defenses i believe this is a top 10 team.