Predicting remaining Michigan games
So, after the win last night, Michigan is 3 - 1 in the Big 10 and 13 - 4 overall. I'm curious how you think the balance of the season will go. Here are my initial predictions for the remaining games.
- I see UofM losing to Iowa & Maryland on the road.
- Don't know what we'll do vs. IU, MSU, & Purdue.
- I see us winning our other 9 remaining games.
That would give Michigan a record of 12 - 3 in the Big 10, with some combination of 3 more wins or losses. 15 - 3 as the best possible record, 12 - 6 as the worst possible record. Of course, an awful lot depends on both the continued health of the team, and the healing of our best player, LeVert. Am I drinking the koolaid and looking through Maize colored glasses? How do you see the season going from here?
With the huge improvement of Donnal, and the fact that Mo and Doyle are slowly learning, the team is rounding into form. With LeVert, Walton, Irvin, Robinson, Rahkman, and a bit of Dawkins, I think Michigan can compete with most anyone in the Big 10.
EDIT: I assume Kenpom continuously readjusts game predictions as the season goes on?
January 13th, 2016 at 12:42 PM ^
natty or bust*, mate
*OK, perhaps I went too far.
January 13th, 2016 at 1:29 PM ^
Are your predictions irrespective of when/if Caris returns? The Kool-Aid you're drinking changes with that answer. What was your base assumption?
January 13th, 2016 at 2:33 PM ^
Assuming Caris returns. Looking at the schedule, LeVert could miss Iowa, and then not be needed the next 4 games after that (Minnesota, Nebraska, Rutgers, Penn State). I had Iowa as a loss, and the other 4 as wins. If he is able to come back sometime around Nebraska or Rutgers, even PSU, that gives LeVert another 2 to 2 1/2 weeks to recover fully. And then he would be well rested and healthy for the upcoming tough games.
January 13th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^
At this point, I really see the absolute floor at 10-8 in conference, with the potential to go 11-7 and maybe 12-6.
I think that 10-8 is safe enough for a tourney birth, so anything more than that would be great.
January 13th, 2016 at 12:48 PM ^
How does one birth a tourney?
January 13th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
Takes about 5 months.
January 13th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^
I usually hate playing this game, but it's hard not to after a signature win like last night. With a healthy Levert back in the lineup, I see a 12-13 win B1G record as realistic. In the preseason, I predicted a B1G title with this lineup (assumed Dawkins would elevate, not regress, and our bigs would be a plus w/ Wagner's early season potential flashing). I think we can still be a top 4 B1G team, but the road will be tough.
I think Wisconsin and Northwestern games are not guarantees, and OSU did bring down Kentucky. Still a lot of tough matchups to go.
January 13th, 2016 at 12:49 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 1:04 PM ^
I don't think I want you on the team if you find it hard to get motivated to play defense. You have less minutes to play so you should be going balls out during the minutes you get trying to earn more.
That talk has no place at the University of Harbaugh. GTFO.
January 13th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 3:33 PM ^
"Very few people like to play defense," but smart players know defense is their ticket for more playing time.
January 13th, 2016 at 12:51 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^
Indiana at home I think we win. MSU I still lean towards loss, same with Purdue at home. Iowa and Maryland on the road are probably losses. @OSU is a tossup. The rest should be wins.
January 13th, 2016 at 12:56 PM ^
That's the only prediction I have.
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January 13th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^
I'm a little more cautious than you are.
The sure thing wins I see are:
- Both Minnesota games
- Rutgers at home
- Penn State in NYC
The games I see as "We'll probably win, but there are still reasons to be nervous about this":
- at Ohio State
- at Nebraska
- Northwestern (they're actually good this year, guys)
Pure Tossups:
- Indiana at home
- at Wisconsin (I know they're down, but our team is definitely not good enough that going into Madison will be easy for us)
- Iowa at home
The games I see as "If we're being honest, we're more likely than not going to lose, but we definitely still have a decent chance of pulling the upset":
- Michigan State at home
- at Maryland
The games I see as highly likely losses:
- Purdue at home (just a horrible matchup for us, really, really unfortunate that we have to play them twice)
- at Iowa
I see 11-7 as the most likely scenario, with 13-5 being a huge accomplishment in my book/what I view as the realistic ceiling. As long as we get to 10-8, I think we'll be in the tournament. If we're 9-9 I think it's 50-50/depends on the margins of our wins/losses/what we do in the BIG tourney. If we finish 8-10 or worse we're out unless we get to the tourney finale.
So I'm more pessimistic than the OP except that I don't think @Maryland is a sure thing loss.
Honestly, we may have gotten one of the hardest Big Ten Schedules. The Big Ten's top tier is Iowa, MSU, Maryland and Purdue. We have to play three of those teams twice. I'd say that Michigan and Indiana are alone in the second tier.
For MSU, out of the top 5 teams (besides themselves) they only play one more than once (Iowa), aka only have to play Purdue, Michigan, Maryland and Indiana once each. Lucky Spartans also get Rutgers twice (as well as Penn State, which we also have).
January 13th, 2016 at 1:14 PM ^
I think this is pretty spot on, except I would swap the Purdue and Maryland games. Purdue shot really well from 3 against us at Mackey, and we shot really well from 3 yesterday. Bring both of those numbers back to Earth a bit and Michigan almost certainly loses at Maryland, but keeps the Purdue game a lot closer. Plus a hopefully healthy LaVert should help against Purdue
January 13th, 2016 at 4:26 PM ^
Against Maryland we actually shot slightly worse from three (41.3%) than our season average (42.6%). I don't know if we'll get off 29 attempts again, but if we do I would expect us to shoot about the same.
Purdue shooting 50% from downtown against us, OTOH, was unusual.
January 13th, 2016 at 8:24 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 1:03 PM ^
January 13th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^
This season is already off to a choatic start, so it will be hard to predict. Purdue stomps us and then gets beat by lowly Illinois. Maryland keeps playing close games. MSU looks pretty bad when Valentine is out. Heck, last night alone there were three major upsets.
With that being said, I think your prediction is about right, something around 13-5. That's a comfortable night on selection Sunday and a chance to make it to the second weekend.
January 13th, 2016 at 1:07 PM ^
I was wondering if you were free to come to my next staff meeting to lift the morale of my team.
January 13th, 2016 at 1:29 PM ^
As you said, a lot depends on Caris. I'm pessimistic on his quick return. I surmising that he is out until February. He is saying he can walk pain free but can't run/jump pain free. Well, shit, that just sounds bad.
We need to split games until he is back and then do a little better than that. So, hopefully 11-7 in the BIG - 8 seed in the tourney.
January 13th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^
Out until February? That's ok. Look at the schedule. We have:
- Jan. 17 - Iowa
- Jan. 20 - Minnesota
- Jan. 23 - Nebraska
- Jan. 27 - Rutgers
- Jan. 30 - Penn State
I predicted we would lose to Iowa, and win the other four. I think a 4 - 1 record through the rest of January is definitely achievable. If he comes back against Penn State, to get his legs under him, we're good for the rest of the season.
January 13th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^
Basically, we are seeing next year's team, without Levert and Spike playing. If any of the freshmen contribute next year, it will be a bonus.
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January 13th, 2016 at 1:46 PM ^
Purdue, MSU, Indiana and Wisconsin are tossups in my mind. I think we CAN beat these teams but if we do, I see them being nerve wrecking close games like last night. I love that the Badgers are losing this season but we've learned over the years that every flukey miracle shot against Michigan is going in. I have this nagging feeling that they're waiting until playing us to have their A-game.
OSU in Columbus; My gut tells me we won't get the Buckeye team that lost to UT-Arlington, Lousiana Tech and got destroyed by UConn and Indiana. We're going to get the team that beat Kentucky. The shots will fall and then the inbred fans will chant, "Just like football." I hope not.
At Maryland and at Iowa are losses. I think we can get past Iowa at home.
January 13th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^
has made me like most way more optimistic about our tourney chances..The game at Iowa is now really huge....If we can somehow someway get a win oin the road at Iowa we have a shot at the Big Title..just another HUGE game...our road record hasnt been good and Iowa is good..
January 13th, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^
There's something we all know . . . Michigan lives by the three, and dies by the three. If Irvin is shooting like last night, along with Robinson, and contributions from Walton, Rahkman, and Dawkins, we can play with almost anyone. Continuing to make a high percentage of three balls allows Michigan to play with almost anyone.
January 13th, 2016 at 4:07 PM ^
Here's my best guess at the remaining games:
@ Iowa - L (road games are tough and we've lost in Iowa when we've had better teams)
vs Minnesota - W (routine home win)
@ Nebraska - W (they'll slip up on the road, but it shouldn't be here)
vs Rutgers - W (come on)
vs Penn State in NYC - W (already took care of business against the Nittany Lions and should do so again)
vs Indiana - W (Indiana has gotten better on D and if it was in Assembly Hall, I'd like the Hoosiers, but I think Michigan pulls out a close one)
vs State - W (I'll take the leap and say that Michigan pulls off the upset against Sparty)
@ Minnesota - L (let down after the State game)
vs Purdue - L (terrible matchup)
@ Ohio State - W (I can see the concern for this game, but I don't think the Buckeyes can score with Michigan)
@ Maryland - L (revenge game)
vs Northwestern - W (the Wildcats are good this year, but again it's really tough to win on the road in conference play)
@ Wisconsin - L (the Kohl strikes again)
vs Iowa - W (they close out the regular season with a W)
That would put us at 22-9 (12-6). A run to the BTT Semifinals would put us at a 5-6 seed I think.
January 13th, 2016 at 4:25 PM ^
They are awful. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games, with the lone win against Chicago State (like Northern Kentucky, but worse). The closest two teams in RPI to Minnesota that we have played are Charlotte and Bryant, who we beat by an average of 98-54. I don't think home court or a hypothetical letdown makes up the 44 point differential there.
January 13th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^