OT: Red Wings Forward Jakub Vrana Scores Four Goals Tonight vs Dallas
April 22nd, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^
I’m really hoping the Wings keep him, or another team tenders him and we get a great haul in return.
Kid is a natural scorer on a team that lacks scoring ability.
I can’t see anyone giving him an offer sheet. At 3.35 AAV, he’s going to want a raise which might put him with 1st Rounder as compensation, plus offer sheets are so rare in the NHL. The Wings have 32.5M in projected cap space next year so he would be a good piece for them to sign for the next few years depending on the term and possible NMC/NTC he may want.
They’ll either sign him or give him a QO and trade his RFA rights.
April 23rd, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
He’s 25 years old and has multiple seasons as a 20+ goal scorer. Would have been on pace to score 30 last year in a full season and would again be on pace for 30 goals in a full 82 game season this year.
That holds a lot of value in this league, certainly worth more than his current 3.35 AAV.
April 23rd, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
100% agree. His closest comp may be Vincent Trocheck from Florida who is towards the back end of a 6 year 4.75AAV deal. Even with a flat cap, Vrana is going to want and deserves more, putting him comfortably in an offer sheet compensation of a 1st and a 3rd, possibly the low end of a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. That's a lot for someone to give up for him which, combined that offer sheets are so rare, I don't see someone giving him one.
Again, depending on a potential NMC/NTC, the Wings have 32.5M with only 8 of 23 roster spots but most of the more expensive expiring contracts they have are for older players who will probably not be back. I think signing him is the smart move, again, dependent on any movement clauses and if Stevie Y thinks he is part of the future, which I think he should be.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
But I see a 25 year old who has a pair of seasons with goals in the mid 20s and if these past two seasons were a full 82, he’d have been on pace for 30+.
If you’re a team that can add a guy in his mid 20’s that is entering his prime and is already a 25-30 goal scorer, that’s worth a first and a third, AT LEAST. It’s worth putting an offer sheet out there and forcing the Wings to at least match it. Odds are, whoever you draft in that first, second or third round isn’t going to be scoring at this pace.
Obviously I want the Wings to keep him around. But I think you’re underselling his value to the rest of the league. Locking up a guy entering his prime with THAT goal scoring ability for multiple seasons is worth a first and a third at the very least. It’s a rare commodity. Pure goal scorers are a dying breed. Depending on the situation, I could see interest in a first, second and third as well.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:32 AM ^
I think he has value, lots of it but again offer sheets are so rare. Only 9 RFA's have signed offer sheets in the 16 years of the cap era. I think if anyone wants him from the Wings, they can have him for less than a 1st and 3rd and potentially a 2nd, as well. That coupled with a flat cap, even with Seattle entering the league and another 81.5M being added to players salaries, I still just don't see it happening.
He will be an asset for the Wings or someone the Wings trade him to but I just don't see an offer sheet.
With all that said, wanna start a weekly hockey post? Haha!
If I’m the Wings I’m not trading him for less than a first and a third. I mean his value currently is diluted simply due to his contract situation (Washington wasn’t going to be able to pay him and protect him) But there’s a HUGE price tag on a guy in his mid 20’s thats already been a 25-30 goal scorer for four seasons now.
Offer sheets are a rare occurrence in the league right now, but so are guys at this age with this type of scoring ability. If you’re simply talking about a guy who is a good 50-60 point player, then yeah you probably pass on that due to the compensation. You can find 50-60 point guys relatively cheap on the trade market or free agency. But you’re simply not going to find 30 goal scorers that are just entering their prime. I’d be absolutely all over that for a first and a third if I’m an opposing GM. If not more depending on the team and the situation. Make the Wings match the offer at the very least.
Any team not in a rebuild would absolutely love to lock down a 25 year old 30 goal scorer for 4-5 years and only give up a first and a third to grab him. That’s a steal
April 22nd, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
I am totally cool with the Wings winning some games at the end; I have come to accept that the NHL draft is an absolute guessing game.
The Pistons, on the other hand, need to keep losing. It looks like they have some company (Orlando) fighting them for the "3rd spot." Pistons are playing Orlando in a week or so- that'll be can't miss TV.
April 22nd, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
Stevie Y will get Wings back in contention for the Cup.
April 22nd, 2021 at 10:46 PM ^
Yzerman knows a thing or two about hockey. . ..
April 22nd, 2021 at 11:37 PM ^
Wow! Larkin, Bertuzzi, Fabbri, and Ryan are all out, and the Wings are moving down the draft board and probably helping to secure Blashilll's job another year. Still, the Mantha trade is looking good, and I have much more confidence in the current scouting staff than the previous one.
April 23rd, 2021 at 12:08 AM ^
Its not a bad thing to keep winning at this point. The draft this year is very week at the top, and there are no clear elite, franchise altering players like a Hughes, Lafreniere, Matthews, ect. Might as well win some games and get some of the younger guys used to playing winning hockey.
My hope is that Yzerman is sticking with Blashill for now because he needs someone to ride out the losses while he improves talent. Once there's experienced talent enough such that the Wings can start competing, a new coach will have a clean slate to work with. Won't have to fight off the inertia of several losing seasons.
At least that's my hope...
April 23rd, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
If Blashill is not the guy, why would you have him stick around for another season?
He's not a Gardenhire-like caretaker; he was brought here because it was assumed he would be a great coach to take the youth forward.
I fully realize that he has not had much to work with; my problem with Blashill is that none of the guys have improved whatsoever. Mantha? Gone. Larkin? Meh. Bertuzzi? He's OK. I have a really difficult time talking about Blashill and saying "yes, the team may suck but look at this player! He keeps getting better!"
He's going on his 6th year I believe. It didn't work. Time for someone else.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:18 AM ^
Not disagreeing with you at all, and certainly not advocating for it, just trying to rationalize why he might be sticking around.
April 23rd, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
Yeah, you are probably right.
Personally, and this is 100 percent speculative, but I think Stevie knows who he wants to bring in but the timing is all wrong.
I just think the Blashill experiment failed. And as bad as they are, I find it hard to accept that he couldn't sneak into the playoffs since he's been here. Making the NHL playoffs is not a difficult task whatsoever- you basically just need to be average.
Sneaking into the playoffs is exactly what was wrong with this team for so many years. They’d sneak in a 7/8 seed and get bounced quickly and end up in a bad spot drafting. They needed to be drafting in the top 5 years ago.
players aren’t getting better because they’re just not that good. The talent is meh and the team is bad. It’s not like you have an elite game changer on the roster and you need a coach that’s going to develop him and ride it out. The team is in purgatory now and the farm system and prior draft picks aren’t great. Too small, too slow, and not physical enough with no elite talent. Blashill is fine. He knows he’s not an NHL caliber coach and he’s content to ride it out until the Wings don’t want him anymore. Wings need to get a game changer in the draft and build from there.
I am not arguing about whether or not it was good to sneak into the playoffs; I agree with you, I think it was holding the franchise back.
My point is that it is super easy to make the NHL playoffs, and the fact that Blashill hasn't done that yet in like six years shows that he's just not ready for the big leagues.
But again, I want someone who can develop the youth. This guy isn't the right guy. I fundamentally disagree with the idea that you just keep him around until you find your coach. Get him out now so the new guy can build his system ASAP, even if the team stinks for a year or two more.
I guess I'm just confused at what you're looking for out of him. Why is the measure of "success" something we all agree is not good for the team long-term? For the most part, the youth of this team aren't the youth of the future. Holland did a piss-poor job of drafting in his later years. And, like I said, the talent level on this team is really bad and outside of Raymond and Seider, the prospects don't seem that great and I might be overrating them because they don't have the Holland stench to them. Laine was putting up 30 goals a year as an NHL rookie at 18. Same for Mathews. Wings don't have anyone that can do that. If you look at almost all of the top level teams - of recent memory, they were basement dwellers who hit on top 10 - usually top 1-5 picks and built around them. That's how you build in a salary cap era. Wings were innovators when it came to finding diamonds in the rough in Europe, but most teams have caught up.
Basically, this team is a long, long, long ways away from competing for anything. They need a lot of new (and different) bodies. Blashill is just fine as a warm breathing body and someone who's not going to rock the boat or cause problems. I guess where we disagree is that there's no system that can get this team, with this farm system to a contender status. They simply don't have the talent to compete. Maybe someone could get them into the playoffs as the 7/8 seed, but that doesn't really serve anyone.
April 23rd, 2021 at 10:39 PM ^
The NHL is nothing like the other sports in terms of winning a cup. You don't need to have an elite team to get it done. It is one of the flukiest sports; once you get into the playoffs, you have a chance. It was a very freak circumstance that the Wings could not advance that far in the playoffs year over year during their playoff run.
You just need to get in to have a chance. The NHL does not take years upon years to rebuild; it is NOTHING like the MLB with fixing a farm system. It takes years for a baseball team to bring players up and get things moving in the right direction. Hockey teams can flip on a dime.
I am struggling to think of the last team besides the 06 Oilers who were lower ranked and made a run, much less came close to winning. Yeah you have the Wings that year or the Lightening from a few years ago. I’m sure there were more, but it’s pretty rare. The good teams win and they have elite players. I’m not sure what point you’re arguing - no one is saying Blashill is a good coach. This team is going no where fast. I frankly wouldn’t care if he won less than 10 games a year, much less winning a meaningless playoff series.
This team is not sneaking into the playoffs due to the talent, not coaching. Scotty Bowman would not get this team into the playoffs.
Blashill may not be the man long term, but he is far from their problem. And as stated earlier, a top flight coach would not be interested in this roster. At least not for a few more years.
So if you git rid of Blashill now, you still need a bridge coach - who may not be any better than what we currently have.
Plus, trust Stevie Y!
I have complete trust in Yzerman. Just going to sit back and enjoy watching him build, what I hope becomes a juggernaut. Whatever he does with Blashill, whoever he drafts, fuck it, all in on Yzerman.
Agree. That recent winning streak has not made me a happy camper, however.