OT: Hurricane Dorian
Know we just got through game one, but think this is a worthy OT. For those who have managed to avoid the news for the last week, Hurricane Dorian is hitting The Bahamas currently as a Category 5. Recent track developments have shifted the storm off the Florida coast, but with a ton of uncertainty in the models, there's still a good chance that the East coast of FL gets hurricane conditions or even a landfall before it turns up and heads to the Carolinas.
If you have family in The Bahamas, thoughts are with you over the next few days. If you live anywhere on the east coast from Florida to North Carolina, keep your eyes on things and have your storm prep done by early this week. Gas up the car, get bottles water, nonperishable food and batteries for flashlights.
The National Hurricane Center provides advisory updates at 2, 5, 8 and 11 (am and pm), those updates can be found at nhc.noaa.gov. When you see the cone on the news, keep in mind that if you're in the cone, you're at risk of receiving hurricane conditions.
Here in Jacksonville people have been prepping all week. Again, thoughts with you if you or a loved one are in Dorian's path.
September 1st, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
didn’t the experts say Dorian was supposed to land on Friday?
September 1st, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
No, it was always supposed to be Tuesday morning. Charleston will get walloped.
September 1st, 2019 at 10:17 AM ^
I live in Jacksonville, too (about five miles from the beach). I had been thinking about getting out of town.....but it looks like it will miss us. Thoughts are with Bahamas and Carolinas though.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
Ponte vedra here. I think we’ll miss a direct hit, but certainly plenty of weather.
I heard this week that since like 1918 Duval county has not had a direct hit, so I think there’s something beneficial about the locale.
September 1st, 2019 at 12:29 PM ^
Wouldn't be too confident in a miss just yet. Official track has the eye 20 miles offshore and the average error this far out is about 70 miles.
September 1st, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
I do enjoy watching the weather channels doing the walking against the wind pantomime during these things. I live in Michigan and don’t understand why people don’t get the hell out of town when a hurricane threatens
September 1st, 2019 at 10:45 AM ^
Because half the time the hurricane shifts its track and you evacuated for nothing. We have family in Ft. Meyers and they almost never bail, even though they live less than a mile from the water. Which almost fucked them back in 04 I think with hurricane Charlie.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
I live in Michigan too, but I would imagine - and someone correct me if I am wrong here - you have a fair number of people who live in hurricane-prone areas who play the numbers in a way and develop a way to make the "go / stay" decision based on available information. Then again, it is all in what you know, like when snow brings the South to a dead stop and here in metro Detroit, some of us just drive a bit slower. Some of us.
September 1st, 2019 at 5:49 PM ^
I have stood and watched a category 2/3 hurricane go right over my head, some of it spent outside in the wind. Not as bad as you might think, as long as you don't live on the coast. Think of sticking your hand out the car window as you drive 80 mph on the interstate, except a little worse.
The media is interesting though. I was in the UK during a hurricane a few years ago, and it barely got a mention in the media. It was about a category 1, and it was just a regular weather report. Granted most of their buildings are build of stone/concrete so it's not as big a deal. Many of their buildings are built so well, they need multiple wifi access points because otherwise you would not get wifi from one side of the house to another. So for the UK it's more like what you said - it's bad traffic. Ok, just avoid it, take precautions, and you're good.
But in the States, a hurricane comes and it's EVERYBODY PANIC LEAVE LEAVE LEAVE in the media. But this kind of thing didn't even happen 40 years ago here. We used to joke that it was the TV hurricane report brought to you by Home Depot. Granted our homes are built with the cheapest material possible to still meet code - so they could fall down a lot easier. But Florida building code is a bit better than the rest of the country.
As long as you aren't on the coast, 9/10 times it's better to stay in your home. Unless you suspect flooding, maybe. Flooding is always the worst. In Tampa Bay sometimes the bay will drop over 20 feet, and you can run around on the bay floor several hours before it hits. Then after the hurricane hits it goes up 20 feet and there is massive flooding. From one side of the eye to the other can be a massive water level difference.
Even if there is a Category 5 with "sustained winds of 180mph", that's only on the coast. As it goes inland the wind is cut down 40-50% because there are house/trees/buildings around you that slow it down. That can still be pretty windy, of course.
I evacuated in 1 hurricane after experiencing many and regret that I did. The "go / stay" decision is usually made by locals and families who know a hell of a lot more about what to do than what you hear on the news.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
I'd say it happens too frequently for that. I live in VA now, and even here I've seen a few hurricanes threatening in a fairly short period of time. If I bailed every time, I'd be taking a lot of expensive unplanned mini trips to crappy destinations and usually for nothing. I imagine it'd be even worse in Florida and the Carolinas.
Imagine having evacuated in FL for Dorian on Friday, you'd be sitting in a crappy but overpriced hotel somewhere near Atlanta or something and any potential landfall - which now isn't even very likely at all - would still be days away. If you do that once, you're probably not doing it again.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
I'm also in VA, and won't evacuate. I'm not really near the coast, but can still get slammed on occasion. But to bail out means leaving a bunch of animals behind - both house pets and the wife's beloved poultry. Not a real good option... It's rarely feasible for most people to evacuate.
Yeah, if you live on the beach, you need to be able to really consider it, but that's not most people.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^
This near exact circumstance happened to me during Irma. I wanted to stay but then GF now wife was convinced we had to evacuate. After driving thru the night in terrible traffic the storm shifted course, heading towards Atlanta more or less as a tropical storm.
September 1st, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
Exactly. I live in JAX and have a co-worker who is originally from Switzerland. She's been in the US for a few years but only in Florida for a few months. This is all new to her. She was very close to packing up and going to Atlanta on Friday. She doesn't know anybody there and would have been stuck alone in a hotel for a few days. She's staying (for now) but lives 8 blocks from the beach so needs to be aware of the latest track.
The issue with Florida is that it's such a long state.....and there are only a few ways out. If the coasts evacuates starting from the South (Miami), traffic is a mess by the time you get to the North (Jacksonville).
September 1st, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
Did we just become best friends
September 1st, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
It's the storm surge and flooding that you need to evacuate for. Unless you live in a mobile home, you hunker down in your home for the winds.
The other thing is that if everyone evacuates at once (and it is just human nature to wait until the last minute), the highways are like parking lots and that is not a good thing. So, the general rule is that if you live in a flood zone or a mobile home, best to evacuate if you are projected to be severely impacted.
I remember many years ago when Charlie hit (I think it was Charlie). Many people in my area (Gulf coast) fled town and went inland to Orlando. Well wouldn't you know it, the storm changed path at the very last minute, missed us, and violently blew right thru Orlando.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
People died in their cars trying to evacuate during Rita
September 1st, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
Because very often it shifts in a different direction last minute and if it’s not a cat 4 or 5 it shouldnt do too much damage
September 1st, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
A small note: here in Columbia (about 100 miles inland) we will typically end up closing our schools because they are used for shelters for coastal evacuees. That just to say that resources are used from more than just the directly hit areas. We also usually send our power crews in after to help restore power asap.
September 1st, 2019 at 8:55 PM ^
I live nearby, in Lexington. My wife is a teacher and expects to be out of school all week.
For those questioning why people don't leave... various reasons but basically most will fall under just a few. 1) Its storm surge that you need to leave for, if you're inland no need to leave just hunker down not unlike a blizzard; 2) finances, not everyone can afford to up and go on "vacation" for up to a week, 3) some really do just gamble that the storm won't hit them directly or cause as much damage.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
It always amazes me to see news clips of empty shelves and "emergency" supplies being all sold out as the storm approaches. I dont live in a hurricane prone area such as the florida coast and we still have enough food, water, and batteries stored away in case the power goes out.
September 1st, 2019 at 11:49 AM ^
I'm retired and have lived in Fort Myers for 13 years now...stayed during Irma, but missed Charlie...The only thing to get me out of here is predictions of 10 foot storm surges..I live near the Caloosahatchee River...I live in a large gated community with newer homes and condos...With the building code on new construction in Florida I never worry about wind, only storm surge and flooding
September 1st, 2019 at 12:08 PM ^
Guessing Kelly Green, based on username. That's where our people are.
September 1st, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
Central Ga here..while we are not in a direct path or anything I remember Ivan came thru central Ga and I never want to experience a Hurricane AGAIN!!..unlike a tornado a Hurricane lasts and lasts and lasts...good luck everyone
September 1st, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
Given the game posts last night, came to this thread expecting comments about Dorian being too slow or indecisive. The reasoned posts here are reassuring. Thank you.
September 1st, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
My in laws are in the middle of building a house in St. Simons as we speak. I really hope that what’s currently there is still standing when this is all over.
September 1st, 2019 at 2:39 PM ^
I had to deal with Irma back in 2017. Hurricanes are total dicks, man.
