OT: Counting Cars for Covid
I stumbled upon the linked article last night, and I found it fascinating. A team at the Michigan of the east found that the number of cars parked at several Wuhan hospitals early last fall was up to 90% higher than than number of cars at the same hospitals, around the same time a year earlier. They used commercially available satellite photos to count the cars.
The article also notes that internet search queries for COVID symptoms spiked around the same time.
So it seems that this thing was spreading like wildfire, at least in Wuhan, way before it was identified and/or publicly acknowledged. The author also claims, as has been reported elsewhere, that our IC knew about this in November and reported it to the Pentagon.
The article is a little long, but absolutely worth the read.
Maybe. I'm sure its hard to reach a conclusion when a new disease is just starting
Plus its certainly looking like this is a seasonal virus given the plummeting death rate in the US despite record cases. It's not that crazy that it took until January to explode and be diagnosed
There’s no maybe about it. Sure, there’s a seasonal correlation for “cough,” as a search term, but look at that exploding “diarrhea” around Nov. 2019.
So because people were googling diarrhea in November china should have immediately Said: “aha! Covid!”
First cases in mid september to a pathogen found 4 months later seems like a reasonable timeframe
Consider not only how quickly the search term spiked, but also how quickly it dropped back down to near normal. If anyone ever doubted China strictly controls and censors their internet, the proof is right there in that graph. At the very least, the authorities had one giant clue spraying everywhere in November.
They didn't censor the word 'diarrhea'. The searches drop trou with the case load. If you look at countries who have done well with the virus there are steep spikes and steep drops. They look just like that. Of course China covered things up in the beginning and is probably lying about the true number of cases, but the whole country was essentially locked in their homes immediately for like a month. That's going to stop an infectious disease in its tracks.
Maybe Taco Bell or Hot n Now opened a few new restaurants in Wuhan in November?
" Plus its certainly looking like this is a seasonal virus given the plummeting death rate in the US despite record cases."
This is an odd conclusion to reach. You're saying that the death rate is seasonal, as opposed to case onset? I don't think I have ever heard of that with a disease before...
Personally, I think a FAR more likely conclusion to draw from the plummeting death rate is what so many have said all along: this thing is FAR less deadly than first presumed (because at the beginning we were only mainly testing the really bad cases). Now that there is more testing, we are seeing positives in less severe cases, which necessarily drives down the hospitalization and death rates. I also don't think we can deny that we were successful at "flatten the curve" and that, coupled with just plain getting better at dealing with this thing in our health care system, has made the outcome rate far better than it was.
I think you're right that we'll see seasonal onset spikes, but I highly doubt we'll see seasonal death rate spikes.
There aren't record cases right now; in April we had multiple days of over 30,000 new reported cases (peaking at 39,072, per Worldometers), while lately we've been around 20K per day (yesterday it was 18,905).
But I agree that our sample of COVID cases now is probably less sick than that of March/April, since it's a lot easier to obtain a test now.
Or is it equally possible they weren't there for treatment from a sense of 'I feel ill' and instead were there to receive treatment to feel ill, board a plane, and start their journeys across the continents?
I couldn't care less who you believe would support or create something like this, I wouldn't even put it past the Chinese communist system trying to cripple the world. I'm not stating it to start a flame war, it's something that is not beyond possible. When I took firefighting science and behavior, we were taught a few pieces that have stuck with me ever since on how vulnerable civilization is to bioterrorism. Fire hydrants are great for firefighting too.
What the hell?
Thanks for trying. A narrow mind is a difficult thing to overcome
Batshit crazy conspiracies are even more difficult to overcome.
You certainly seem to a "narrow mind" expert.
Anyone who considers a question of origin as a threat to society...I don't think the question is your biggest challenge in life.
If this thing is a bioweapon, it's not a very good one.
And why release it to their own people? They could easily get it anywhere on earth.
I'm not saying it is or it isn't a bioweapon, or at least deliberately allowed to become widespread by the Chinese Communists, but look at the results.
Hong Kong resistance is done for, we all have better things to worry about. Bigger better surveillance state. Fragmented world economy. Saber rattling with India. Orange man is probably done for.
They are in a much better spot because of this virus, and all it cost is some old people.
Anything that weakens the west benefits China, and to a lesser extent Russia.
But if that was the goal, why not release it in Tokyo? Or Taipei?
Here's my thoughts though unwelcomed by many...I'm over it. USA under Trump cutting many ties with China, and as an economic power that drives world markets and democracy though that is on the ropes as we speak.
If you think China cannot possibly inflict some self harm in an effort to take down the US you don't understand the Chinese culture of discipline and sacrifice. You can't see it from our perspective. We are nothing like China. Believe the possibility or don't.
hatter, we are china's only rival in the world. technically we are ahead in many critical areas but because we are eating our young right now we are falling behind while they sprint forward with no fear of our intervention, with our attention turned, with riots and turmoil they would put down in a nanosecond with tanks. one other area they are racing ahead in right now: 5G. and yes, i think it is safe to say they will be using it to gather all the information they can. there are no moral or legal barriers that the CCP will actually worry about or honor in their imperialistic goals. the silk road is the proud announcement that they are taking over.
so to blue's point about an intentional release, not my first thought but given the fall-out that has greatly benefited china in the succeeding months, crazier things have happened.
And being clear...it's a THOUGHT. 2/3 of their land is useless desert. With over a billion people we probably look like a tasty bread basket. How many Chinese nationals were here on education visas and directly tied to CCP?
Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't put it past China to do something like this intentionally. That government is horribly repressive and is absolutely looking to supplant American (and European) world leadership.
My thing is that they would have done a better job of it.
i won't do the checking, but i've at least read that their major cities weren't hit by this. if true, how would that be possible? they are communists at least in name (meet the new boss, same as the old boss, but worse) and as both stalin and mao killed tens of millions of their fellow citizens, maybe sacrificing a few hundred thousand in wuhan province is chump change to them to give them plausible deniability?
again, not my first thought that it was intentional, but not beyond the realm of possibility.
My money is on an accidental release from the lab. Some poorly paid janitor took some research animals and sold them at the wet market for a little extra cash.
Either intentional, accidental, or entirely natural, I doubt we'll ever know for sure. Unless the 50 million young men without wives in China figure out why that is and decide to do something about it.
one wild idea i heard was that a poorly paid lab tech of some sort took a lab monkey and sold it at the market down the street. would make a good start to a mission impossible episode. and they do eat monkeys. and bats. and this stuff..
MGrowOld was positing that theory a couple months ago. I think it's plausible. Maybe not the most likely way it started, but it's not out of the question either.
My wife is from Taiwan. You should see some of the stuff she considers, "food."
This seems frankly much less wild then the “intentionally release on your own citizens to cover up for the intentionally sending your citizens to other countries plan”. If I were going to go with wild theories, I’d probably go with: it started accidentally (maybe escaped from lab, maybe natural), China thought they could keep it under control. At that point they were keeping it secret because they didn’t want the world to know they had any problems. When they realized they couldn’t, at that point they switched to a, “lets start sending infected folks around the world strategy.” That is why they continued to stonewall on sharing information.
Which ultimately is where/how I think it happened also.0
Hatter I appreciate your argument on the topic. Maybe this shines a little more favor on the just possible.
A Harvard University professor was indicted by a federal grand jury Tuesday on charges that he lied to U.S. officials about his ties to a Chinese-run program aimed at furthering the communist superpower’s scientific and technological development.
This has been ongoing since January. I agree if this is ÇCPs attempt, it's pretty weak the bat food is a pretty common conclusion. But you also mentioned a spike in searches for corona virus...if it's still not understood even today...how did they know what to google back in the fall if they had no idea what was happening?
I've read a few places the virus in the Far East is not as communicable as what hit Europe/Eastern US. That would also explain how some of those countries have been able to contain their outbreaks entirely, and also explain the lack of explosive spread in California.
I think people forget the millions who've already been sacrificed for the Chinese Communist Party's dream of restoring China to greatness. A few hundred thousand to this virus is chump change (no I don't believe the official death toll).
Why release it on their own people? This is a quote I remember from an old Viet Vet/covert ops guy back in the day.
"You know how you can tell who is buying the weapons for guerrillas? If they are American made it's the Russians, and if they are AKs, it's the Americans."
You are an unhinged lunatic.
Lol irony
please
I'll pass...when you refer to someone as a lunatic over a difference in opinion...you might be a lunatic...nice username btw. Irony.
I don't think you're a lunatic, but you probably watch a lot of OANN.
Nope...I simply don't accept the obvious without questions. Never once did I say this IS the answer, nor the truth. It's unfortunate when narrow minded individuals cannot see past their own narratives and values. We seem to have a powder keg of that destroying the US right now. I'd upvote your comment but alas. +1
‘Or is it equally possible they weren't there for treatment from a sense of 'I feel ill' and instead were there to receive treatment to feel ill, board a plane, and start their journeys across the continents?‘
Considering both those equally likely scenarios is a little more than questioning whether the obvious answer is the right one. While questioning the obvious can be a strength that has and will lead to great discoveries, it is best tempered by then reasonably evaluating the likelihood of the less obvious answer you propose. In my mind your fail was in this important second step.
don't pretend it's about a simple difference in opinion. You lose on that point alone b/c it's not a "which color to you like better, honey, the eggshell or the navaho?" - type difference of opinion.
Opinions are not to be respected or accepted by fiat. Your statements in this thread are on the border of 'plausible but unknowable' and 'batshit.' Unless you have more than conjecture and circumstance (motive is obvious as is the motive of Russia), you're getting called onto the carpet for your extraordinary claims b/c they require extraordinary evidence to be taken seriously.
Until you have that, I have no reason to do anything other than ridicule the bullshit you are flinging at the wall to see if it sticks.
I honestly don't pretend to give a flying bat fuck what YOU think...if we don't agree I feel far better about it. There is a danger in people like yourself.
We are in real danger by batshit crazy people like you spreading unfounded conspiracies like this. This helps no one and just spreads FUD. You are the real danger to the society.
Modeling says 2.2 million will die = FACT
Asymptomatic carriers are super spreaders= FACT
advice from CDC/WHO experts changes like underwear... daily=FACT
suggestions that CCP POSSIBLY spread this intentionally...btw even plausible to resident cdc/virology expert = DANGER TO SOCIETY..
BAHHHH...please stick to super mario bros on the gameboy.
Responding to his comment is actually the opposite of honestly not pretending to give a flying bat fuck.
Responding to his arrogance and playing on the same fifth grade level not the same as caring about his opinion.
Whatever you say Colonel Jessup. I have just one more question for you. If you ordered your men not to touch Private Santiago, and your orders are always followed, then why the transfer order?
you may have won a case but you have weakened a nation!
Great film. You are not Jack Nicholson...
WOOSH.
Equally possible? No, a remote possibility? Maybe, but there seem like much better ways. How about infect a small number of Chinese in Maryland. A few to spread it near Fort Detrick in Frederick Maryland so that you can blame it as an escaped US bioweapon, then some people in DC, who you have them spend the next week traveling all over. Take the DC metro, Amtrak to NYC, the NYC subway, planes to Chicago, London, Tokyo etc.
End up with virus spread all over the world, US is blamed, China doesn’t get hit as hard. Seems like a much better plan.
/Rips up half-written novel on that topic