NCAA tourney – streak or slump to Selection Sunday
NCAA tourney looks at recent trends when selecting seeds. Finish strong and it gets you higher while a year end slump gets a lower seed and may send you to first round games far from home. I got to thinking about some of the teams that have not fared well and how that affects Michigan’s chances to stay close to home with the #2 seed in the Midwest.
Here is the AP Top 25 during Week 16 (Feb 16), each school’s record since, and their AP rank in week 18 (earlier this week). This gives a little end-of-season trending snapshot.
|
Week 16 Rank |
School
|
Record |
Record since; Week 18 rank |
|
1 |
Syracuse(64) |
25-0 |
1 – 4; #7 |
|
2 |
Florida(1) |
23-2 |
5 – 0, #1 |
|
3 |
Wichita State |
27-0 |
5 – 0, #2 |
|
4 |
Arizona |
23-2 |
5 – 0, #3 |
|
5 |
Duke |
20-5 |
3 – 2, #4 |
|
6 |
San Diego State |
22-2 |
4 – 1, #10 |
|
7 |
Cincinnati |
23-3 |
2 – 2, #15 |
|
8 |
Kansas |
19-6 |
4 – 1, #8 |
|
9 |
Villanova |
22-3 |
5 – 0, #6 |
|
10 |
Saint Louis |
23-2 |
2 – 3, #17 |
|
11 |
Louisville |
21-4 |
4 – 1, #11 |
|
12 |
Creighton |
21-4 |
2 – 2, #13 |
|
13 |
Michigan State |
21-5 |
2 – 2, #22 |
|
14 |
Virginia |
21-5 |
4 – 0, #5 |
|
15 |
Iowa |
19-6 |
1 – 5, #24 |
|
16 |
Wisconsin |
21-5 |
5 – 0, #9 |
|
17 |
Iowa State |
19-5 |
3 – 2, #16 |
|
18 |
Kentucky |
19-6 |
3 – 2, #25 |
|
19 |
Texas |
20-5 |
Dropped out |
|
20 |
18-7 |
4 – 0, #12 |
|
|
21 |
Connecticut |
20-5 |
Dropped out |
|
22 |
Memphis |
19-6 |
3 – 2, #20 |
|
23 |
UCLA |
20-5 |
Dropped out |
|
24 |
Ohio State |
20-6 |
Lulz; out |
|
25 |
Gonzaga |
23-4 |
Dropped out |
In the “Others receiving votes” in Week 16, we find one on the rise: North Carolina went 5 – 0, is #14 in the current rankings, riding a 12 game winning streak, and playing at Cameron Indoor tonight. The ACC winner – if it’s Virginia, Dook, or North Carolina, will probably get a #1 seed. The other #1’s are currently Florida, Wichita State, and Arizona (per conventional wisdom).
Syracuse, Dook, Iowa State, and St Louis all lost since the rankings were released earlier this week. This makes them all weaker as a #2 seed, especially with Michigan 6 – 1 in their last seven.
In the Midwest, Cincinnati is 3 – 3 in their last six games. St. Louis is 0 – 3 in their last three. Creighton has lost their last 2 on the road to unranked teams. Kentucky and Iowa should drop out of the rankings next week. Wisconsin, however, is on an 8 game winning streak. They are Michigan’s biggest challenge to a #2 seed in the Midwest bracket. Go Nebraska.
My hunch is the winner of the BTT – if it’s Michigan or Wisconsin – gets the #2 Seed in the Midwest and the loser gets #2 elsewhere. What say you?
As I was getting info for this, I found a video clip with some locker room shots taken before the Illinois game – duct tape is used for motivation:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=espn:10553134
before the day started. Word on ESPN is the Kansas is a #2 seed. I saw were they were in the Midwest and Wisconsin was #2 in another region.
If that means we are #3 in Midwest, so be it. Almost the same as a 2.
Getting the two seed in the Midwest with Wichita as the one seed in that region is the best case scenario. Not that I don't think Wichita is good, I think they would definitely be a tough out, but I just don't think they're as good as Florida or Arizona.
I agree that it's a possibility. They have a lot of talent, some definite future pros, but they haven't played a single good team in months. That can't be easy to come out with a W against a team better than anyone you've played in a long time. Meanwhile, your opponent from a power conference is playing good teams nearly every time out. Not to mention that Wichita has barely any experience in close games this year.
They did the same thing last year (played a "weak schedule") and made the Final Four. I mean, its your opinion and you may end up being right, of course, but I personally don't get the overrated-label that Witchita St. gets. They have the same roster that made a Final Four a year ago. They be good!
They lost by 4 to Louisville in the Final Four.
They beat Pitt, LaSalle, Ohio St. and the "overrated" Gonzage team. I get that the Zag's bowed out early and everyone "knew they would" but they were still a damn good team the Shockers beat.
Anywho, I don't mean to be argumentative, I guess I just don't see why people continue to doubt them. (I sound like an alum or a fanboy probably, but that I am not!)
Again, I think that they're good. Maybe really good. Just don't think that they're as good as Arizona or Florida. Also, their schedule last season was harder than it was this year.
I would also agree that this seems possible. They are the only bid likely to come from the Missouri Valley conference - Indiana State went 22-9 and will likely not sniff a bid. The competition is terrible, it seems, in the MVC. Actually, TeamRankings does projections to advance by round (purely preliminary at this point, but still interesting to look at), and they would actually place our chances of advancing deeper as better than Wichita State's - this is true of most of the projected Big Ten bids actually. By the algorithm anyway, their RPI really hurts them, and I think it might on the court too.
I agree that this is our best-case scenario, and I think the biggest obstacle right now is Wisconsin. They're probably ahead of us in line for that spot, and I don't think the committee would put Wisconsin as a #2 and Michigan as a #3 in the same region. I'll be cheering hard for Nebraska to beat Wisconsin tomorrow and for Michigan to beat/outlast Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament.
MGoGrendel:
I just wanted to acknowledge how much I like your posts and the work you put into them. They are informative and thought-provoking and I just wanted you to know how much I appreciate the time you put into your the threads you create. It's noticed.
Great job!
i had to upvote you. What you said could of possibly lead to a downvote is beyond me. Obviously you have made an enemy or two. Maybe its the Cleveland thing. I happen to find you funny, despite the Cleveland thing.
and i also agree that Mgogrendel does a very nice job.
Louisville has finally, fully come into their own. Wow.
"Deja vu all over again" must be one complicated series of events.