More Realignment Rumblings
Per report, Big Ten looking at seven schools (don't know how many they'd actually take):
Don't know anything about "the Action Network", so take it with a grain of salt...
While Florida is valuable, I don’t see any of the Florida schools as good fits.. I guess FSU would be the first choice. At this point we might as well go to 24 and basically operate as two divisions in football that meet in the championship.
How about something like this
Michigan USC
Ohio State Notre Dame
Penn State Florida State
Wisconsin Washington
Iowa Nebraska
Michigan State UCLA
Minnesota Stanford
Purdue Virginia
Northwestern Georgia Tech
Illinois North Carolina
Indiana Maryland
Rutgers Duke?
We’d be back to basically the original big ten They could also a pod system for scheduling if they want… Imagine that basketball league. That would be simple, just play everyone once and altrenate home and away each year. You could swap out some of these for Oregon or Colorado? I put the schools roughly in order of power and it seems pretty balanced.
Michigan winning numerous Big Ten titles in Olympic sports every year is about to get extremely difficult to continue in a lot of them. Even just with USC and UCLA. I can’t think of one of our Olympic sports that is traditionally dominant that just these schools won’t have something to say about. Wrestling, field hockey, and Hockey are the only ones that come to mind. UCLA-Michigan softball will be a hot ticket.
I feel like this has probably been discussed ad nauseum, but doesn't every ACC member, including ND, have some grant of rights that extends out to 2035? In other words, isn't it almost financially impossible to pull an ACC team out of the conference right now?
On another note, just my guess, but I've got to assume that they will be trying to pull in at least two more west coast schools to help keep the scheduling / traveling nightmares for USC/UCLA as little as possible. I don't know that, but that's my assumption. But they'll bend over backwards to accommodate for ND no matter what.
Final question on my random tangent of thoughts: for the SEC and Big Ten, with all of this expansion, what's the end game here? Yes, more money, I get that, but there has to be more to it than this. Two 18-20 team super conferences with no geographical identity spread across the country, you'll have teams part of the same conference that, at least in football, won't play each other for years at a time. Is the ultimate goal that both the SEC / Big Ten commissioners are working behind the scenes to break away from the NCAA and do their own thing together?
Just trying to figure out, what's the goal in all of this? Where does it end?
The grant of rights deal is the only thing keeping them together. I do wonder if the B1G could put those schools media money in an escrow account and loan them a similar amount to cover their losses. When 2035 hits, the money comes out of escrow and the schools give the money back to the B1G. Just thinking out loud.
I do believe that the SEC/B1G will get so large that they will have a traditional division of original members and a contemporary division of newer members.
Notre Dame's grant of rights may be different since it's not a football member of the ACC, (it might not be, I've seen mention of a clause that says if they do join a conference it has to be the ACC), but the first point is right on.
The common reading of the grant of rights contract all the ACC schools signed after Maryland left seems to be that the schools would have to pay a $120 million exit fee, lose ACC media money and lose the right to have home games in any sport on TV until 2036. I'm sure the office of legal counsel for every school that might contemplate leaving is looking at how it could break the contract, but they'd have to be pretty damn sure they were right, b/c it would seem to be north of $1 billion, and would certainly trigger extensive litigation. (not to mention the "no TV" component would obviously make any consideration of adding ACC schools a non-starter).
This thread is a good explainer. https://twitter.com/aadelsonESPN/status/1545437217849475073
You're correct about the ACC grant of rights agreement being an obstacle to teams defecting from that conference, that's why I mentioned in my earlier post that if the B1G invites the three ACC teams I mentioned (UNC, FSU, Ga Tech) they'd have to make it financially worthwhile. In other words, not only enough to make their yearly share more lucrative than their current ACC setup, but also enough to offset any liability owed to the ACC and ESPN for leaving prior to 2035. Besides that, they'll have to be enough of a net plus to satisfy the current B1G membership. Gaining a firm foothold in Florida, the Atlanta region, and much of the Carolinas brings in a lot of the southeast both for TV viewership and recruiting.
Correct too, IMO, about wanting more balance geographically by adding at least two if not three more Pacific time zone teams. Stanford, Oregon, and Washington make the most sense.
As for ND, their athletic teams (except for football and hockey) are also ACC members and I would assume there's some GOR liability for them, too, but no doubt it would be a smaller penalty than that of those universities with full ACC membership. It's already clear that B1G membership would be far more lucrative than what ND is currently getting from NBC for football combined with their share of the ACC pie; for ND, it's deciding whether it's at the point that the additional $$$ plus academic resources outweigh football independence.
Rumor has it, too, that ESPN sees the writing on the wall and already wants to renegotiate for a lower payout.
The end goal for the B1G? We're keeping our high academic standards AND becoming a true national conference (all the boxes would be checked: the Midwest, the Eastern Seaboard, the SE, California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Plains) while outflanking the more regional SEC.
While I'm sure Washington and Oregon would love to join the B1G, I'm not sure those two schools will be that high on the B1G's pecking order.
With all of the B1G realignment, there is one thing that is certain and one thing that is probable - first, it's certain, basically public, that Notre Dame is the most lucrative and desirable remaining "free agent" target in terms of joining the conference, and second, it's probable that when USC and UCLA agreed to join the B1G, there was significant discussion about adding at least 2 more West Coast / Western schools in the future, to reduce travel, preserve some history and rivalries, etc.
Combine those 2 factors together and IMO, that means Stanford and Cal seem more likely that Oregon and Washington to join the B1G. Stanford is another traditional rival with ND - meaning another carrot for ND to join the conference - and the two schools would bring the No.Cal TV market as well as immense academic and Olympic sport prestige. If there's just one school coming to keep an even number of teams, Stanford joins and Cal stays home.
The other factor is that neither the B1G nor the SEC have a foothold in Virginia or NC. Population is exploding in NC, and I think UNC and UVA are going to be extremely desirable commodities to both the B1G and the SEC (the SEC also does not have a foothold in either state). Both schools are very strong academically, in basketball and various other Olympic and non-Olympic sports. The population is also exploding in the State of NC.
That's a potential 21 team league - the existing 14, USC, UCLA, ND, Stanford, Cal, UNC, and UVA. Likely add one more team to create two 11 team pods if you will - maybe one of Oreg/Wash/Utah/Kansas/Duke/GT/Miami.
Every current BIG school except Nebraska is a member of the AAU (Association of American Universities), and Nebraska was a member when the conference initially extended the invitation. This includes USC and UCLA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Universities
If somebody can point to any evidence that the BIG would consider inviting any non-AAU program other than ND, let's see it. Otherwise, any discussion of inviting non-AAU members like Miami or FSU is a waste of time.
I believe FSU is AAU. Not sure though about Miami, but either way I don't consider them to be nearly as attractive to the B1G.
(Edit @4:56pm:
I'm wrong about FSU, the only school in Florida with AAU membership is the Florida Gators, and no way UF leaves the SEC. And no to both FSU and Miami being invited.)
Sadly I clicked on that link and remembered what a horrible shell of itself SI has become. I’m pretty sure the downfall began right around the time Mr. Stretchgate slithered over there.