Michigan v. OSU - comparing outcomes
Comparing how each school's opponents fared against them and against the rest of their schedule:
OSU 77, Oregon State 31. (1pt) Worst outcome of the year for the Beavers.
OSU 52, Rutger 3. (1pt) Worst outcome of the year for Rutger, but lolRutger. They also lost by 41 to Kansas, by 29 to Buffalo, by 21 to Illinois and by 27 to Maryland.
OSU 40, TCU 28. (3pts) Lost to Texas by 15 and Oklahoma by 25. Also lost to Kansas.
OSU 49, Tulane 6. (1pt) Worst outcome of the year for Tulane.
(but after B1G play began...)
OSU 27, PSU 26. (3pts) We know what to think of this now. Paved by M, also lost to MSU by 4.
OSU 49, Indiana 26. (2pts) Indiana lost by 26 to Iowa the next week.
OSU 30, Minnesota 14. (5pts) Minnesota lost by 25 to Nebraska, by 29 to Maryland, by 17 to Iowa and by 24 to Illinois.
OSU 20, Purdue 49. (8pts) Purdue's only game better than this was beating Illinois 46-7.
OSU 36, Nebraska 31. (4pts) Prior to this game Nebraska was 2-6, with one of those wins coming against Bethune-Cookman. Nebraska only has three finishes better than this, as they also lost by exactly 5 to Troy and Colorado.
Score (lowest is best): 28 points. tOSU is between their opponents' 3rd and 4th toughest game of the year based on outcomes, and worse in the B1G. The only B1G team who had their worst performance (pending this coming Saturday) against tOSU is Rutger.
Compare to Michigan:
17-24 loss to ND. (3pts) ND only beat Vandy by 5 and Pitt by 5.
49-3 over WMU. (1pt) Before losing their QB for the season they were 6-2 with their other loss by 13 against Syracuse. Their next worst loss is still 59-14 this past week.
42-20 over SMU. (3pts)
56-10 over NEB. (1pt) Their next worst game was losing 41-24 to WIS.
20-17 over NW. (4pt) Very similar to what ND did to them without the tack-on TD.
42-21 over MD. (2pt) Maryland lost 23-0 to Iowa and by 21 in each other loss, wierdly enough - but has 5 wins.
38-13 over WIS. (1pt) Their next worst game was losing 31-17 to NW.
21-7 over MSU. (1pt) Their next worst game was losing 29-19 to NW.
42-7 over PSU. (1pt) Their next worst game was losing 21-17 to MSU.
Score (lowest is best): 17 points. M is between their opponents' 1st and 2nd toughest game of the year based on outcomes, and better in the B1G. Five opponents, 4 in the B1G, had their worst outing of the year against M.
COMMON OPPONENTS (psu, nebraska) tOSU WON 63-57, M WON 98-17.
In sum: this is the year, see you in Indy, Hold this L, #RevengeTour, Go Blue!
November 6th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
It seems to me that OSU is a half-trick pony that's been scouted and figured out by its opponents. They aren't getting worse as the season progresses, they're just getting figured out.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
Yup.
(Sorry, would normally just upvote, but I've been stuck on 399 points since the mid-60s.)
November 6th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
Hahaha and you thought posting would change that?
November 6th, 2018 at 3:57 PM ^
Dont worry, I negged him for that. Let's take him down to 299 to teach a lesson.
November 6th, 2018 at 9:24 PM ^
Avatar checks out.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^
One thing Ohio State fans hate to admit is just how much they miss JT. His mobility added another layer of depth to the offense in that he would actually extend plays and serve as a helpful component to their run game (I.e. keeping a defense honest on a zone read).
Haskins is a great pocket passing QB, but that’s about it. If Michigan’s secondary does what it has all year, shut down the opposing team’s passing attack, I have a really hard time seeing Ohio State sustaining multiple scoring drives. Add in the relentless pressure he will face all day from our front 7... Yeah, it’s gonna be a problem for them.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:27 PM ^
I see alot of Martell coming if our D does its thing in the first few drives...
November 6th, 2018 at 5:12 PM ^
This. We have to be careful. Held the lead last year, and JT went down. Haskins flipped the script and ran things a different way and had some success.
OSU struggles early, don't be surprised to see them go a different way and bring the QB run back in play.
November 6th, 2018 at 8:35 PM ^
I do suspect they've been holding back a Martell package for Michigan.
November 8th, 2018 at 12:49 AM ^
It's called the second half . . .
November 7th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
You pretty much just summed up why you should miss JT......
November 6th, 2018 at 7:39 PM ^
I have no doubt they'll have another trick up their sleeve (or two or three) by/on 11/24. Much as we hate them, their coaches are not stupid, either game planning, or adjustments.
They still have better athletes than any team Michigan has faced this year. Webber and Dobbins are still pretty good backs. I expect they are going to work their asses off over the next couple of games to establish the running game, and play-action passes. Haskins can be deadly if the pass rush can be slowed down just a little bit. Michigan will have a gigantic fight on its hands. This will not be easy.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^
So we dont have to play the game then?
So.......not sure if you've noticed OP but our record playing down here against the Buckeyes has been something less than awesome over the past.....oh i dunno.... TWO FUCKING DECADES so I'm not quite ready just yet to put that one in the win column.
We should and I really, really hope we do. Hell, I hope we slaughter those assholes but listing scores of past games doesnt mean shit. Sorry but the transitive property means diddly-poo in football and it means especially diddly-poo when playing OSU.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^
^^^this
Everybody knows we're playing better football than Ohio.
Gotta do it in The Game.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:53 PM ^
I found Brady Hoke's MGoBlog handle.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
Well, by your same logic Donald, I guess we literally shouldn't discuss The Game at all until after it's over.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
Not at all. There's a post up right now on the board regarding the game where the OP looks at the OSU strengths and weaknesses and makes a case for us winning (which i totally agree with BTW). We can, and did, discuss his arguement quite a bit.
My point is listing scores of previous games means nothing. Absolutely nothing. Might as well list the players recruiting star scores.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
The scores are data points. I agree the information isn't all that compelling but it's something.
November 7th, 2018 at 6:28 AM ^
Might want to check the meaning of the word "absolutely" before misusing it again.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
So many words for a summary dismissal. The OP took time to lay out scores against common opponents without making grand claims about their meanings, and we can take from them what we will. Limited value of the transitive property notwithstanding, these scores offer considerable assurance that Michigan will be able to play OSU very tough, and possibly beat them.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
All good things come to an end. It's inevitable that OSU will lose a game to Michigan in Columbus. There is not guarantee that this is the year when we finally get over that hump, but all signs certainly seem favorable for that to happen, but it's still incumbent on the coaching staff and the team to make that happen.
We're the better team this season, let's go into Columbus and play like it.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:58 PM ^
mGrowOld - relax, just getting pumped. Also note that we haven't been favored going into Columbus since 2004, which I consider the start of this horrible period (as we won the 100th Game the year before 35-21).
In the 14 games played in that stretch we've played 7 in Columbus and 7 in Ann Arbor. We were favored in 2004 and lost, then haven't been favored (meaning the Vegas favorite is 6-1 in Columbus in that stretch). We've been favored twice in Ann Arbor and won one of those, meaning the Vegas favorite is 6-1 in Ann Arbor in that stretch and 12-2 overall since 2004.
We opened this week in Vegas...as a 3.5pt favorite in Columbus. If this isn't a fun conversation for you then I don't know why you spend time on message boards!
November 6th, 2018 at 8:04 PM ^
"Listing scores of past games doesn't mean shit".
After literally talking about how games from 20 years ago means something.
Literally nothing that happened prior to last year means shit because the players were all different and coaches changed just a few years ago.
Last year is only relevant because of the not zero amount of comparison that can be done with returning/departing players.
Games this year, however, can be compared because it gives an idea of how teams are preparing.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:31 PM ^
Where everything is made up and the points don't matter.meme
November 6th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^
Thank goodness we get to play OSU to actually figure out who is better.
November 6th, 2018 at 9:56 PM ^
It’s unfortunate the game has to be played. Watching these posters go back and forth is riveting
November 6th, 2018 at 3:49 PM ^
I wouldn't compare what we did to NW to ND. We were down 14-0 and trailed until late in the 4th quarter. ND never trailed and was up by at least a TD for most of the second half. Its two different performances.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^
We were down 17-0 actually.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^
Normally I'm not a big fan of guessing the better team by common opponents (match ups make a big difference). Looking at how each team has performed over the entire course of the season thus far, however, I would say that UM has looked stronger overall (and that's reflected in S&P+, polls, etc.). In this case, looking at match-ups as well, their strength is passing and ours is defending the pass. Our offensive strength is running the ball, and their defensive strength is...tbd.
Taken together, these factors give me as much confidence going into The Game as I've had in quite a while. Still, though--tough place to play, and history is not on our side.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:51 PM ^
I cannot stand the small T in front of OSU. Only OSU fans do that.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
Plus it's aOSU right now. If they beat The Michigan State this weekend then they can be back to tOSU. (LINK)
November 6th, 2018 at 4:36 PM ^
And the $
November 6th, 2018 at 6:27 PM ^
But only if they have spent $ on dildos and ball lifters.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
I was going to make a parody account of you and just post one-liners about all of the things I hate, but you beat me to it.
November 6th, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^
from where would your parody account be from? um fan from.....?
November 6th, 2018 at 6:29 PM ^
I vote from, Cindy.
November 6th, 2018 at 7:11 PM ^
November 6th, 2018 at 5:40 PM ^
According to buckeyes, the "the" is not merely a definite article, but an actual part of the school's name. Therefore, it is most correct to refer to their school as the the ohio state university.
Also, I miss The The.
November 6th, 2018 at 6:30 PM ^
Terrific!
November 6th, 2018 at 7:11 PM ^
November 6th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
I mean clearly that last statement is not true as you are commenting on a counter example. I see a lot of people do it mockingly as it would be stupid to do it seriously.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
... none of this means anything.
November 6th, 2018 at 3:58 PM ^
Here’s a nice stat.
OSU gave up 942 yards to PSU and Nebraska.
Michigan gave up 318.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
My guess is Tate Martell will start getting a lot more playing time in the red zone over the next few weeks
November 6th, 2018 at 4:13 PM ^
I keep hoping Meyer is too dumb to do this.
But whether or not we see it before the game, we damn sure better be ready for it.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:26 PM ^
Yeah I guarantee we see it in the osu vs Michigan game
November 6th, 2018 at 4:43 PM ^
I just hope we can gameplan for him as if he will he in the game, because whether they’re in CFP contention by then or not, Meyer will pull out all the stops to win that game. Our gameplan for Barrett last year was great, but when he went down we had absolutely no answer for Haskins because we’d gameplanned all week for a mobile QB who couldn’t throw very well. Then Haskins stepped on the field and he was the exact opposite of that.
November 6th, 2018 at 8:08 PM ^
I seem to recall Haskins with a run or two that also hurt us. They've been trying to avoid having him do that, and he's no Barrett, but between Haskins and Martell we surely will see some in The Game.
November 8th, 2018 at 1:00 AM ^
Michigan has struggled with OSU QB changes that we were not ready for.
In 2014 Cardale came in late and we were not prepared for what a truck he was running the ball. Last year Haskins came in and we were not prepared for what a good pure passer he was on those crossing routes.
If Martel comes in, we will need to be ready for the change-of-pace QB that he is versus Haskins.
November 6th, 2018 at 4:34 PM ^
Why are we so obsessed with OSU??? Don't we have TWO games until them?