Right now we are a 5 seed. If we win tomorrow we could move up to #4. Nothing is guaranteed. This is March Madness remember?
We were the lowest 5 seed, so we may just move up within the 5s. Kentucky was the highest 5 and lost at Florida.
Only thing UM is guaranteed of as I type this is a #5 seed in the NCAA tourney. Why? Because UM already defeated Sparty at East Lansing, so defeating Sparty at a neutral site doesnt add much to UM's resume.
If UM wins the B1G tourney tomorrow, especially by defeating Purdue, a team thaty defeated UM twice this season, then UM would deserve better than a #4 seed and would likely get a NCAA #3 seed.
Amirite?
Sparty might still get it, but it will be total bullshit if they do.
It sucks that everyone besides us (and OSU) was incredibly un-clutch against Sparty this year. Looking in your direction, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa, Rutgers...
You have to look beyond head-to-head. MSU is quite likely to be seeded ahead of Michigan; they have similar résumés at the top end, but then MSU has wins where Michigan has losses (e.g., @Northwestern). Also, @Nebraska and vs. LSU are both hurting Michigan's chances.
Sparty's schedule was a frigging joke. They beat one tournament team in this calendar year.
But as I said, everyone besides UM and OSU was unbelievably, comically un-clutch against them, and they scraped out the most unimpressive 29-win record in history, which will probably impress the dumb old men on the committee.
Funny I haven't heard anyone talk about how soft their schedule was down the stretch.
That's true. But, Michigan only has 3 wins over tournament teams this calendar year themselves, and MSU only has two losses, both to UM, while Michigan has 4, two of which are to bad or mediocre teams.
I mean, I'm not all that impressed by winning at Northwestern either... but I sure wish Michigan had done so. :(
We're not really disagreeing. I expect MSU to get the nod over us.
I just don't think they are anywhere near as good as their record, which is what's annoying. They played a crap schedule and didn't even look good against it, but managed to win over and over by the skin of their teeth.
Take the Northwestern game. NW played them without McIntosh and still led by 27, only to gag it away. Of course they were at full strength against us and McIntosh had his best game of the year...
Detroit is the closest site to Xavier and Purdue. If they are ranked higher than MSU, as seems likely, I think their pods will be there.
At least that's how I understand it. The #1 and #2 overall seeds get to play closest to home. Then #3 gets the closest that's still available and so on through the 4 seeds, with two pods of four teams at each 1st/2nd round site.
As a 4 or 5 seed, we'll get whatever site is left. With the current projections, either Boise or San Diego would be my guess.
Xavier is nearly equal in distance to Detroit, Pittsburgh and Nashville so Xavier can be placed in any three of the pods. I'm not sure why Detroit is the closest pod when you look at the total driving distance.
I think Michigan is playing fanastic basketball right now, but this is still not the résumé of a 2 seed. Too many losses, too much RPI poison, not enough good wins.
And Detroit still looks unrealistic to me. If they lose to Purdue tomorrow, I think they're locked out of Detroit -- and I'd say it's not really likely even with a win. One game just doesn't move the needle that much.
BTW: #9 on Torvik.
By the eye test we are a two seed no doubt. Thats not what the committee looks at though.
How does the RPI and SoS get formulated to begin a season when everyone is 0-0? Ive watched quite a bit of SEC and Big 12 basketball and neither of those leagues are any better than the B1G yet similar teams from those leagues seem to be ranked quite a bit higher. I guess what Im asking is if there is a bias of perception to begin the season? I look at a team like Nebraska or Penn State and wonder why they arent even bubble teams while other leagues are getting 8 teams in.
The RPI is based entirely on the current season. If you look at it in November, it's complete garbage. (I mean, it's still mostly garbage in March, but it's completely nuts in November). For example, Michigan's RPI prior to Maui was #140. Nobody really thought that they were the 140th-best team in the country; there just wasn't enough data to go on yet.
Any SOS numbers that you see are also based upon the current season. They're also pretty much garbage early in the season.
The biggest component to SOS calculations -- as well as perception -- is interconference play, and that's not a strength for the Big Ten this year. Take a look: https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference/con…
6-14 vs the ACC. 3-2 vs the American. 1-5 vs. the Big 12. 8-7 vs the Big East. 4-1 vs. the Pac 12. 2-4 vs the SEC. In aggregate, that's 24-33 against the top 6 non-Big Ten conferences, or a 0.421 winning percentage.
By contrast, the Big 12 is 6-1 vs. the ACC, 5-3 vs the American, 2-2 vs. the Big East, 5-1 vs the Big Ten, 4-3 vs the Pac 12, and 8-10 vs the SEC, or 30-20 -- a .600 percentage. The ACC is 5-2 vs the American, 1-6 vs the Big 12, 2-3 vs the Big East, 14-6 vs the Big Ten, 3-1 vs the Pac-12, and 9-6 vs the SEC -- 34-24 (0.586).
The second-biggest contribution to perception -- but not the computer rankings -- is whether or not teams that were expected to do well did so. The Big Ten lost a lot of cachet because Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Maryland all played far below expectations. To overcome that, the middle-tier teams like PSU or Nebraska needed to have flawless résumés. Losing to Illinois (Nebraska) or Rider (PSU) was catastrophic due to the lack of strength elsewhere in the conference.
It will be interesting to see who the committee puts in Detroit.
They also had two cracks at Villanova and lost badly each time. They didn't look very impressive against DePaul today either. Then again, offensively-minded teams seem to do rather well in the tournament. Who knows?
Can absolutely be MSU. Michigan's résumé is obviously getting better by the day; it was really nice of Penn State to get into the top 75, and I think they'll probably hang there. But the two bad losses -- particularly at Northwestern -- are absolute boat anchors compared to MSU. They might use head-to-head as a tiebreaker, but I don't think those résumés are tied.
FWIW, Xavier actually appears to be approximately equidistant bewteen Detroit and Nashville, though. I will grant that there is an outside possibility that if Michigan climbs high enough on the S-Curve, they could share Detroit with MSU and Xavier could get sent to Nashville.
However, I still expect UM to be passed by one or more teams that get hot during their conference tournaments, and I don't think Detroit is a particularly realistic destination. I'd sure take it, though. :)
huh?
I'm guessing OP wants to be on the opposite side of the 1 seed in the bracket.
But (a) you're probably going to have to beat a 1 seed eventually, and (b) it doesn't matter what side of the bracket you're on if you're upset before you get there. I'd rather play a 13 in the first round than an 11.
The projected twos are terrifying: MSU (ok, not so much them), Purdue, UNC, Duke. Would much rather play Xavier, who is behind us in Kenpom even though they're a projected 1.
Nah. The committee still goes by RPI even if they say they don't -- we'll get a clown seed. But if we can do this to Sparty when shots aren't falling for one half, if shots do fall, why can't we make a final four run from the five spot if we have to?
Michigan is up to 17th in RPI. Last year's 7 seed was a "clown seed," but I don't think a 5 is unreasonable. If the Big Ten had its usual 7 or 8 tournament teams, and Michigan had the same record agains them, this would be a 3-seed résumé, but the league fell apart this year.
Wow. I didn't realize that. My mind was posioned by those times we we're like 35th a month or two ago while we were ranked.
Up to 9 in Kenpom but 23 in RPI.
That's yesterday's RPI. Theyr'e currently at #17; #16 based on in-game probabilities, as I type this: http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html
That's a good mentality for the team to have. But our chances of making the final four are directly proportional to seeding
According to Torvik's model.
Kentucky, West Virginia (to Texas), and Clemson all went down today as teams directly above Michigan on the matrix. Michigan should pass all three and be right on the 4/5 line. A 3 or 4 seed is likely with a BTT championship, but almost certainly a 5-seed with a loss to Purdue (with an outside chance at a 4-seed).
Four seed for sure I'd say. Three seed if the good guys beat Purdue or play them down to the wire. Purdue looks like a bunch of puds at this very moment. Very beatable team and not in their home arena.
is sadly very far off. We're a 5 seed with an outside shot of getting a 4 seed.
Not sure it's outside, honestly. Figure we're a 5 if we lose tomorrow and a 4 if we beat Purdue. If we beat PSU, it'll depend on other results.