Michigan #1 in SP+...with a huge caveat

This. SP+ is usually brought up toward the end of the season after Michigan loses a few games because I think it matters to some people? 

There is something really wrong with Clemson's offense.  I guess good O lines and all star QB's and RB's make a difference.

Nope, #6. Top ten is:

1. Alabama (3-0)

2. Oklahoma (3-0)

3. Georgia (3-0)

4. Ohio St. (2-1)

5. Clemson (2-1)

6. Michigan (3-0)

7. Penn St. (3-0)

8. Florida (2-1)

9. Texas A&M (3-0)

10. Wisconsin (1-1)

I know you are being sarcastic but it sounds like some fans want in here. 

First, lets enjoy that Michigan has played excellent football for three weeks and is way ahead of any expectations.

But, you do have a point.  We really do not know anything until we see how this offense will deal with a team that (1) does stack the box (Washington never did) and (2) has the personnel to make a stacked box matter (NIU did not).  

IOW, will the play calling and personnel be able to handle stacked boxes against Wisconsin and MSU?  Will JH have a passing game able to make them pay when we can't just run at will?  Or will JH just run on 1st and 2nd down, and then face a lot of 3rd and 8 with a solid by unspectacular QB, an unproven receiver corps, and uncreative route trees?  

All the goodwill from the first three games goes out the window if for the whole Wisconsin game the offense stands there for 15 seconds and then runs the wrong play (as defined by just about everyone on this board).

The team is playing well because the coaches seem to executing well during the game.

Note: MSU played a bad Miami team but their play calling was good and the team executed.  Their coaches didn't screw it up. (Sorry, brother and son-in-law were at the MSU game and that forced me to watch MSU.)

Let us sacrifice a Koala to the Gods

Wow, you are just being a barrel of fun this morning......

I believe everyone knows this is early, but the hyperbola of "We have been there thousands time before (900000 is one comment in particular)" is just overboard BPONE that wont go away.

I do believe that everyone is correct in stating that we need to see it on the road against a good team.  That is where Wisconsin comes up.  Win that game and the pendulum swings the other way drastically.....

All things come to an end, including curses. 

-16 my guess

That’s why preseason projections are still part of the actual data. Early season data based strictly on the season so far is going to be unreliable and inconsistent. 

I don’t think that’s the right way to think about it

Or...Florida actually played better than Alabama on a play-by-play basis but the randomness of a one-off game meant that a couple of plays here or there just happened to turn the game to Alabama.  If Florida is/played better than Alabama, then it was a 53/47% probability anyway...and the 47% team wins that...47% of the time....

I didn't watch Bama vs Florida, but looking at the box score it looks like a pretty even game. 2 point margin, both teams even on yards per pass, and Florida was ahead on yards per rush. Looks like the first quarter interception was basically the difference. And everyone should know that interceptions and fumbles are not very predictable and more or less random, therefore deemphasized in predictive and efficiency based metrics.