Men's BB: thoughts on hope?
I'm taking my son to Champaign on Friday night for his birthday, and sense that a depressing experience is in the works. The 2000 football game was the last time I ventured downstate, and also the last time I was in a physical confrontation of any sort (the result of racial epitaphs directed toward another Michigan fan in our section). So first and foremost, I hope that at least my non-violence streak remains intact. Maybe their fans have mellowed some in the past 21+ years. After what happened with the BTT last year and Hunter's comments during media day it feels dicey. But we shall see!
I literally can't remember the last time I felt this hopeless about the possibility of a W going into a men's BB game. The Aneurysm Of Leadership in 2011 with UM riding a six game losing streak into Breslin immediately springs to mind. But actually, I was far from hopeless heading into that night. There were legit reasons to believe UM had more than just the proverbial "punchers chance" at an upset. That was far from a vintage Izzo squad (about to fall out of the top 25 after losing the previous two themselves). UM's six game slide into that game included a 7pt loss to #3 Kansas, then nearly toppling #2 OSU and #15 Minnesota. And at that point in Beilein's tenure, we had already seen many a rabbit pulled from the hat.
If it were just me, the current state of basketball affairs wouldn't be much more worrisome than a cloudy day. We were due for a down year that all heavyweight programs experience eventually, and the long term future still looks extremely bright, if not quite as assured as it seemed in October. Plus football just took our wildest expectations for basketball and exceeded them. Who among us wouldn't have made that trade?
The problem is its not just me. I'm facing a 5 hour round trip drive with a 13 year old rabid UM fan who's known nothing but optimism surrounding hoops this his entire life. Yes, its a great opportunity to talk about gratitude/perspective. And we will. On the way home. A quality heart-to-heart about the life lesson of managing expectations isn't exactly a great return on birthday gift investment. I'd like to at least get back the excitement and anticipation leading up to an important game. For that, I'm going to need a heaping spoonful of hopium.
Anyone out there see a way for this team to put out the flames on this season and finish top 5 in the Big Ten/make the Tourney? Feel free to squint as hard as you need.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
The Aneurysm game is a good example. This team isn't as bad as it seems, it's just young individually, and as a team they need to grow as well. I'm seeing them play more cohesively, well the last time they played. Of course, now they haven't played in a stretch so they will be rusty. I guess what I'm saying is, don't give up hope. These young men are Wolverines, and I think that means they aren't going to quit, they have pride, and they will make us proud one day.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
My advice as a fellow fan: Can't judge a whole fanbase on the actions of one fan. There are shitbags in every fanbase, including our own. I saw some really despicable behavior from UM fans in Indy and also at the Orange Bowl. I'm sure this trip will be fine.
My advice as a fellow father: If you're going to the game with your son, there's no way you can have a bad time. They're probably going to lose based on the evidence of what we've seen this season, but you can still make memories.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
I have never been to an away game without someone yelling something after losing my way. Typically they're far enough away to not care.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
I'm not even confident they will play. Seems like Michigan still has a lot of players out as of this morning.
January 14th, 2022 at 8:18 AM ^
All of Juwan's quotes plus the official MBB social media posts indicate they will be playing tonight.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:30 PM ^
This is not a good basketball team right now. I do remember UM scuffling along and then catch fire during Walton’s senior year.
This team has plenty of talent but they are young and haven’t put it all together. Johns has been a huge disappointment. Him making the leap was a crucial piece toward this team being good. I have no idea how Houstan was a high 5 star recruit. He looks like Jerrod Ward 2.0. Talk of him being a one and done look ridiculous. Jones is no Mike Smith.
can this team grow and develop? Sure. Are they likely to make a deep run if they grow? Probably not.
January 13th, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
Plus 1 for the Jerod Ward comparison. I’ve gotten the same vibes.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
What part of BPONE do people on this board not understand? No! There is no hope. Drink away the MBB season. It is nine months until football starts, and then something terrible and unexpected is going to happen there, too. Optimism = Idiocy
January 13th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
Players out due to covid aside, I personally just don't see a big turnaround this year. Going to be grinding, taking some lumps, and hopefully gradually seeing improvements from guys. We have zero wings / wings who can shoot the rock, just an imbalanced team this year, which is unfortunate but still got crap tons of very young high talented guys that I'm very pumped to see in future years.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:38 PM ^
Here is my thought on hope...
January 14th, 2022 at 8:43 AM ^
this is the correct answer. there was no hope going into the football season (from us fans, at least) and it made it all the sweeter. leave hope for the children.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:38 PM ^
I have a plan but it hinges on your son being extremely good at basketball and you being extremely good at lying.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
Well one of those things is already true
January 13th, 2022 at 5:40 PM ^
I do not like the way juwan builds a team. He loves non shooting, short point guards and non shooting junkyard dog wings. I don't see how that is ever a good team unless theyre allen iverson/zion williamson level athletes. Hope I'm wrong, hope we have good teams going forward even if not this year. I just don't see it.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
I might agree if you were only looking down the road. But Houstan was the top shooting recruit in his class, Bufkin/Tschetter had shooting at the top of their recruiting profiles, and Barnes may have as well if not for his athleticism.
Personally I don't think he undervalues shooting (or things like size at the PG), its more a matter of what recruits we have a realistic shot at in a given cycle., and taking the best available. Judging by the next 2 classes, where you may have a point is that it seems Howard is more likely to take the best "talent" available and try to coach up their deficits, rather then lower rated players with traits that round out the roster. But I guess we'll see.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:18 PM ^
Who are you talking about? Collins? Too Early to say he’s a non-shooter, and not particularly undersized. Houstan? Bufkin? Both shooters coming out of HS. Definitely not junkyard dog types. Seems like you’re jumping to conclusions.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:24 PM ^
collins and dug, short non shooting points in back to back classes.
williams and glenn, non shooting, not very athletic, tough wings not quite in back to back classes.
Houstan is a 4, bufkin is a 2. Williams is too short for a 4. I've got no issue with his recruiting at the 2/4/5 just the 1/3.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:45 PM ^
I’m not sure why anyone thinks Houstan is a 4. He’s would be giving up 20 pounds minimum to every 4 on the schedule
January 13th, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
Well they say you are what you can guard and he cant guard 3's at all. He's tall and not that athletic so a better fit is the 4 even if he'd get pushed around until he physically matures.
January 14th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
Having him guard guys 20 pounds heavier than him is a great way for him to not only have trouble guarding someone, but also get into foul trouble. On offense he would also be asked to do traditional 4 things like pick and pop and offensive rebound, which he is not big enough to do. Just because someone is 6’8 doesn’t make them a good 4. Unless you think Chet Holmgren should be playing center because he is over 7 feet tall
January 14th, 2022 at 8:05 AM ^
...and every 3 runs around him like he has bricks for shoes.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:26 PM ^
I have to admit I’m a little curious about the roster composition he has and is putting together. Let’s say for the sake of argument that Diabate stays but Johns and Dickinson are gone, your only bigs next year are Diabate and a freshman Reed. That would get really dicey if Diabate left too. We have far too many 3-4’s.
Every point guard he has recruited so far is smaller and has shooting issues. Mike Smith had a good year for Michigan but even he was a career 34% three point shooter. The rest of them are Frankie, Jones and McDaniel. I don’t even know what’s going on with Zeb this year, he barely plays.
Hopefully later this season and the off-season Caleb can find his stroke. I’d like to see what he and Jett can do together. I want to see what Tschetter and Barnes can bring next year as far as shooting and athleticism, respectively.
I’ve asked Matt about Juwan’s recruiting philosophy and he pretty much says athleticism and speed and to overwhelm other teams. I don’t see a roster being built that way by Juwan so far even if that was/is his intent.
I will be interested to see how this season plays out but more importantly how the back half sets up for next season. We have no more roster spots, barring attrition to add anyone else.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
What are you talking about? Mike Smith was a great shooter. Caleb Wilson was supposed to be a great shooter (so was Nik Stauskas when he entered the NBA but sometimes people just get a level where their nerves can't handle it).
And Zavier Simpson was a short non-shooting PG and was a Beilein recruit. So what?
This teams bigger problem is defense anyway (offense is 24th in kenpom down from 9th last year, but the defense is 46th, down from 4th).
And the problem with his "construction" of this defense is that he has a center that is slow, can't switch and can't protect the rim AND two freshmen starters that can't keep guys out of the paint and don't really know their assignments yet AND two short guards. We got away with two of those three last year because we had ELITE wing defenders in Wagner, Livers and Brown. But all three has been too much to overcome this year.
They're replacing four really good players so it's a bit of a down year so far. The freshmen might start to know what they're doing. They might start making shots. But probably not.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:55 PM ^
I don’t know if this is directed at my post or not, hard to tell. Mike Smith was a great shooter for one season, luckily it was for us. The other three he’s recruited aren’t known for shooting. Small stature and not known for shooting. Time will tell on Frankie and Dug.
Caleb Houstan, not Wilson.
Defense is a big issue but the short guards and the overstocked 3-4’s play in there just as much as Dickinson does. Youth does play a factor as well, which is why I’m curious about the back half of the season and next year.
I’m not throwing in the towel or condemning Juwans coaching ability yet, just curious about his roster construction and what the future holds and whether he will make any changes to it in 2023 and beyond. It may all sort itself out by the end of the year.
January 13th, 2022 at 8:15 PM ^
Yeah I don't know if that was directed at you or at me but i agree with all you said. Would just add that all season long everyone's been saying Houstan is a 4 not a 3 and i agree.
January 13th, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
I kinda hope we cancel, just to see Illinois fans lose their freakin minds.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:03 PM ^
I've been watching alot of college baskets lately. We look like one of the worst 10 or so Power Conference teams in terms of shooting and athleticism.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:10 PM ^
On the athleticism part it’s because our better athletes aren’t the ones playing right now. You look at Diabate, Collins, Barnes, Zeb and Kobe and those are our athletes. Only Diabate gets good pt out of that group. Shooting, I can agree with you there!
January 13th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
It's always good to remain hopeful/optimistic. It's also good to be realistic. Unfortunately, I've had to significantly adjust my expectations for this season. If they make the tournament I'll be thrilled, and it's always nice to be thrilled.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
Bet the Illini, simple
January 14th, 2022 at 5:09 AM ^
*Beat
You forgot an "a".
January 13th, 2022 at 6:25 PM ^
Hope springs eternal.
January 13th, 2022 at 6:49 PM ^
I live in Florida and had iterations to stay in Orlando for the MBB game against UCF then head to Lauderdale to watch the CFP. Glad I thought better of it and saved the dough. MBB team looks lost right now.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:01 PM ^
I don't know, but I'm sure the expectation was that Jones and Houstan would be pretty much plug-and-play at a high level, and that just hasn't happened. I can see what we could have, but right now it looks very disjointed due to subpar PG play and a lack of shooting ability. Sadly, the defense has been lacking as well.
Not a recipe for hope, but there are clearly COVID issues at play, along with health issues for other players. I wouldn't be surprised if they haven't been able to practice together much....
January 13th, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
We currently have 7 guys available to play tomorrow. Team hasn't gone 5 v 5 in practice for a week and a half. Not ideal for a road trip to Illinois.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:21 PM ^
I live in Urbana, I have tickets for the game, and the prospect of a 20 minute walk seems daunting. But I was also a senior at Michigan with season tickets for the 81-82 season. I've seen worse. So I'll take that walk. Blue unto death
January 13th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
Nope. It ain't happening this year. Hopefully a few guys we took for granted wouldn't be here next year are still here and they can build into something.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^
If we get curb stomped you can make it up to him by bringing him to Ann Arbor for a home game, spending the night in town to show him around a bit. He might like some of the museums (maybe not if you're from Chicago) or walking around campus, through the Law quad and into their lower level... especially if he was a harry potter fan. The grad library is pretty cool too or, in another direction maybe Vault of Midnight down on main street. Plenty of decent food options or the unique experience of Blimpy Burger.
January 13th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
epithet (i hope) ... still despicable but at least it's not carved in stone
January 13th, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
Hope the offense grows is one thing. The thing that doesn't seem to be coming along is the defense and with players having been out and potentially out of shape to an extent, that won't be getting better anytime soon. It's been crummy. Illinois will blast us to Saturn.
January 13th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
i got nothing on hoops. we aren't good this year and we won't be. growing season all the way around. it'll get better, but not saturday in urbana.
i got a lot (allot) on 13 year olds. we've had 7 of them. the journey with you really is 'the game' that counts. the preparation for the road trip in terms of food, drink, michigan gear, etc.; route planning for the way down, talks, music during the ride, memories about you at school, last year's season, the walk around the illini campus, sharing some jokes, a meal at some wacky illini version of pizza bobs, getting down to the michigan bench before the game with your boy's michigan gear on and getting a high-five and an autograph, reading the program, meeting some nice illinois fans - all of which is father-son time, and that is 'the game'. the score is almost inconsequential.
January 14th, 2022 at 10:32 AM ^
We live near Evanston, its annoying that we don't play there every season. We've gone every year starting with the double OT loss in '15, which inexplicably tipped off at 8pm central time (school was skipped the next day). Pre-rennovation, Welsh-Ryan was one of the coolest game experiences that I could imagine. You could walk right down to the floor during pre-game shoot around and nobody would say boo. Players and coaches were relaxed and didn't mind some respectful interaction. Before half time we would run down to where the "tunnel" was to the visitors locker rooms, which was actually just a hallway that lead past a concession stand, and you could line up and high five the players on their way in and out. Then again after the game, the ushers had not problem letting us hang out courtside until the players eventually came out to see their families and do interviews. Players had no problem taking pictures and signing autographs, and there was rarely anyone else around. So cool.
January 13th, 2022 at 9:19 PM ^
The best hope is that one of the freshmen steps up in a big way very quickly. The talent is supposedly there. Perhaps Juwan shakes up the lineup a bit more. Ideally someone like Bufkin or Collins will provide a contribution of 10+ point per game.
January 13th, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^
I hear that Hope is now single after Georgia won, but she probably doesn't waste her time with basketball.
January 14th, 2022 at 6:19 AM ^
this team is stunningly bad
January 16th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
agree