Maybe not OT: COVID-19 discussion
I hope this doesn't get deleted, because panic seems to be rising, and it seems that REASONABLE discussion is better here than everybody running around and screaming. So please don't ruin it and make it political (a global pandemic turning political? What could possibly go wrong?).
I'm curious to hear some real opinions from folks in the medical community. Dr Brutus just had to alert her staff that they need to write their names on surgical masks and reuse them as long as possible because masks are now on indefinite backorder. Personally, I'm more afraid of the hysteria and mass panic than the virus itself. Hopefully a vaccine will be developed soon so that we can calm down.
I think this is how the zombie apocalypse starts.
I think you're getting downvoted for your name. Just the sight of it drives some people crazy around here.
I hope this goes well. I think it's a relevant topic that can be discussed reasonably but, you know, blogs and such.
Fresh one I hope.
It's about as effective as the people wearing masks in the streets presently.
That is funny thank you. ???
All I need is to stock stock up on alcohol and I’m good.
booze kills all germs
When the vodka shelves empty at my neighborhood liquor mart, then I will panic.
Tito's vodka released a statement saying their vodka should not be used as hand sanitizer
A minor bummer, but at least that leaves more for COVID liver sanitation.
i posted about this around a month ago and some mgodocs/epidemiologist types didn't seem too concerned about it. it sounds callous, but we lose tens of thousands to the 'regular' flu every year. i personally think this one is worse, but still not the black death that the media wants it to be so you watch. remember bird flu, SARS, etc.
that said, we are ready for the zombie apocalypse at the XM farm, water, food, power, and special zombie repellant (note: it works against spartys and buckeyes, too).
Personally I think the official data are off by a lot right now. The figures that China released show around 2% death rate, mostly among elderly, but the mortality doesn't really come into play unless the person develops pneumonia. That region of China apparently has a high rate of smokers and poor access to healthcare. You wonder what the numbers would be in a place like the US.
I took my kids to the doctor for an upper respiratory infection last week and they didn't even consider testing for it. It makes me wonder how many people have it and either stayed home or their doctors simply didn't even think of it?
The WHO released an official death rate of 3.4%. Which is statistically significantly higher than the flu. However, most of those deaths are the elderly and already sick. I do think this is more severe than previous panics that didn't meet the media hype because this one is rather easily spreadable and has already gone global. As far as total fatalities, I think people are going to get a big lesson in cumulative odds. Cause 3.4% doesn't sound bad, until say, 10 million people get it and 340,000 die.
You cannot get an accurate rate until long after the initial outbreak. Only cases reporting are those tested. The tested ones are those who report to the hospital or were known to be exposed to someone who tested positive. Early rates are always skewed high due to the most severe cases being reported in greater numbers. There have already been shown to have asymptomatic carriers so if we factor in a potential for more infected without symptoms, the rate would drop dramatically. Likely a significant number of population of the Wuhan area have been exposed without dying.
There is actually a theory that early rates are skewing low for this because they weren't taking into account late fatalities. The Case Fatality Rate was increasing as people were dying 4 weeks into their illness, where previously they had only been counted as being ill.
There's a reason that Italy and South Korea have shut down schools, Switzerland has banned gatherings of over 1000, and soccer matches are being played in empty stadiums, and that's because the people with the most information are realizing that this is both more deadly and more contagious than the flu. And there isn't a hospital system in the world that has the spare capacity to handle a second, more dangerous flu.
The potential damage to the health care system is the biggest threat if you are a healthy adult. Where you going to go in the event of a car crash when all the ICU beds are full of people on respirators?
Also, my parents are both over 65, and I'd really rather not have them die any time soon, so the argument (not yours) of "it only impacts the elderly" is pretty distasteful to me.
I think the point is that most people don't have a whole lot to worry about and we should direct a lot more of our attention toward the elderly instead of creating worry and panic among everyone. The media isn't doing a good job of emphasizing that for people under 50 the mortality rate is far lower than for people over 50. And its much higher for people in their 70s and 80s. This creates a sense that we are all at risk at roughly the same rate, which of course isn't true.
The Case Fatality Rate was increasing as people were dying 4 weeks into their illness, where previously they had only been counted as being ill.
They aren't only counted as ill. Cases are differentiated between "mild" and "serious, critical" categories.
You can see the data by country here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
thanks for this link
Reading up on this, there was a good article on MSN (sorry dont have the link, but if you squint enough you can pick it up in the address line. TL;DR summary -
> Early rates are hard to predict because there is no previous evidence to base this on.
> Some areas are less equip to handle such matters, yes they specifically say that Wuhan area is not able to maintain this
> It does impact all ages, but has been more prevalent in adults 30 - 70 (See graph, if I can load it correctly)
> Mortality rate is shifted to the much elderly, as stating that most elderly have some other previous condition and this virus only exasperates it
> All these data points are some early and constantly fluid as this is literally a hour by hour flux, final statistics will not be known for some time.
> Stress that basic hygiene practices will help (Wash your hands, cover your mouth when you cough - not with your hand)
cover your mouth when you cough - not with your hand
Dabbing was so 2015
Surprised no one has mentioned Korea, where the morality rate is the lowest at 0.4%. Not coincidentally, they've also tested way more people than any other country.
There was an interesting op-ed published by a Harvard Dr. outlining how the only data we can rely on is the Diamond Princess because it's almost a perfectly controlled environment. Long story, short....the true infectious rate and mortality rate seem to be much lower based on 3,000+ passengers with only 700 infected and 6 deaths, all above 70 years old.
So, not ideal, but not the plague.
Having said that, we stocked up at our place for a 30 day quarantine as China is going on 40+ days in some places and it just seemed better to be prepared than not. All food we will eat eventually anyway if this blows over.
I believe the death rate in china is plunging (I read another article that claimed it was between .2 and .4%).
I also read a pretty compelling case made by a doctor saying the cruise ship with a number of infections made for a real-world study on the mortality rate, which ended up being .85% and all the passengers who died were over 70 years old. For healthy people under 60, it doesn't appear to be all that serious.
Media panic and social media fear-mongering are the bigger issues. Everyone is convinced we have this super deadly disease being spread before we actually have any real data...and that falls on the people getting the information out to the public.
Perfect example: When 6 people died abruptly in Washington, there were no details about the people who died in most headlines. You usually had to read halfway down the article to find that the deaths had occurred in a nursing home, which of course would be a vulnerable place. But the headline is there to incite max fear in the audience by making it seem people are just dropping dead anywhere and everywhere.
Reality is, there are probably way more people who have it than we know and the mortality rate is probably even lower than we think. Still, because our society is always being manipulated toward panic, its better to be prepared than not.
Fair points, but my understanding is that there are still 34 people from the cruise ship that are currently in either critical or serious condition.
Keep in mind that a virus is a living thing and can (usually does) mutate. In fact there seem to be at least two separate strains (one apparently more aggressive than the other) in China alone. So the mortality rate in country is not certain to be replicated elsewhere. Whatever strain of the virus that reaches Michigan may or may not behave identically. We could have a strain that infects more people but is less lethal, for example. And there are other factors like smoking rates which appear to influence the mortality rate, since it is a respiratory illness.
This already is a mutation. The Coronavirus family has been known about since the 1960s.
Viruses can mutate but they are not living organisms.
I side with the "they are alive" crowd.
I'm skeptical of any statistics coming from China.
We can’t know the death rate until we have the right denominator, and no one knows the true number. There are two possibilities:
1. Lots of people have it and don’t even realize it, due to mild symptoms: Death rate is lower than currently reported.
2. The disease takes several days to kill you, maybe even weeks. Pneumonia doesn’t kill overnight generally. Then today’s deaths need to be compared against cases reported from several days ago. Death rate is higher than currently reported.
We won’t really know what the death rate is until millions of people have gotten sick.
zombies and sparties and buckeyes.... OH MY
In this state there really is not much to fear from either lions or tigers.
or wings or pistons....
(we are so cursed in our pro sports, epic.)
So it's covid19 fears causing the empty stadiums?
no. the wings/pistons/tigers/lions being their respective worst in the world at their sport that is keeping the fans away in droves.
I believe more people will die from over preparing for Coronavirus than from the actual virus. Extra panicked trips to the store will cause traffic accidents, stress related illnesses will increase, deaths due to being crushed by stacks of extra supplies, suffocation due to makeshift masks and being overwhelmed by bleach fumes are just a few.
I think this will have a dramatic effect on our economy through the summer...think 9/11 event where everyone stays home and stops spending.
Great time to buy equities on dips but for many organizations this will be a rough ride. Airlines are bleeding money right now as are other travel related industries. Manufacturing and healthcare will follow suit shortly with other sectors as the virus spreads into the North American interior.
The Chinese stats are showing a 3 pct fatality rate but it's uncertain if their way of life contributes to or if that is what we should expect.
I think this will have a dramatic effect on our economy through the summer
I'm not a huge finance guy, but I will say the end of 2019 and start of 2020 were great months for my portfolio, the last 3 weeks have been the worst since I started investing in the stock market.
Yes, but it’s a great opportunity to get in at a lower price right now.
Sit tight....it's going lower.
The hard part is deciding when to buy and sell. I guess I'll just save money for now, then buy when it starts to turn around.
Please let me know once the turn around happens lmao
avatar checks out
I'm buying every time the S&P 500 drops another 100 points. Eventually it will bounce back and I'll make some money.
Stocks didn't get back to their all-time high right before the Great Depression (1929) until 1954.
Japan's stock market high was set in 1989 (both Nikkei and the TOPIX) and neither are remotely close to getting back to those levels.
I'm not saying this is the "big one" but "eventually" can turn out to be forever.
I guess you weren't investing in 2008. Or 2001. :)
I just did a presentation on CoVID-19 yesterday.
There is no vaccine. There will not be for about a year.
It's serious, but not a world-ender. About 3.4% fatality rate so far. (The flu is about 1%.) It's basically a super-cold.
Basically wash your hands & be more mindful about contact with others. You're not getting it from egg rolls.