Maizenbrew's inside the numbers: halftime adjustments
OOF:
Date | Michigan | U-M 3Q Points | Opponent | Opp. 3Q Points |
Nov. 16, 2013 | Michigan | 0 | Northwestern | 3 |
Nov. 23, 2013 | Michigan | 0 | Iowa | 7 |
Nov. 30, 2013 | Michigan | 0 | Ohio State | 14 |
Dec. 28, 2013 | Michigan | 0 | Kansas State | 0 |
Sept. 6, 2014 | Michigan | 0 | Notre Dame | 7 |
Sept. 20, 2014 | Michigan | 0 | Utah | 7 |
Sept. 27, 2014 | Michigan | 0 | Minnesota | 17 |
Oct. 4, 2014 | Michigan | 0 | Rutgers | 0 |
Total | Michigan | 0 | Opponent | 55 |
and
Team | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q/OT | Total |
Michigan | 33 | 52 | 0 | 66 | 151 |
Opponent | 54 | 64 | 55 | 56 | 229 |
Margin | -21 | -12 | -55 | +10 | -78 |
October 9th, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^
October 9th, 2014 at 4:46 PM ^
October 9th, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^
I do think it's a bit selective to limit the data set to the last 8 Power 5 teams instead of taking Hoke's entire tenure into account (even if still removing tomato cans).
I'd be interested in seeing the full tenure's results and knowing why Drew opted to only do the past 8 games.
October 9th, 2014 at 4:53 PM ^
the game before charted was Nebraska when Michigan did get a TD in the 3rd. ff
The game before that was MSU when we put up a 3rd quarter goose-egg but only had 6 for the whole miserable game. Before that were almost competent games against IU, PSU and Minnesota.
I would wager he saw that Northwestern game as the one where things completely fell apart.
October 9th, 2014 at 4:47 PM ^
it said 8 games right? That works out nicely to being an average of 11 points back after three quarters. #Victors
We were on average within 4 points going into the half and then bombed every third quarter. This has to be really indicative of just how bad our coaching as been, especially at making in game adjustments.
October 9th, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
Still, seeing the numbers is very jarring. 0 points in 8 games. Wow.
October 9th, 2014 at 4:48 PM ^
This is.... Not Surprising
I can't wait to drink all day Saturday.
October 9th, 2014 at 4:50 PM ^
Psh, when you put teams away at half time like Michigan does, who cares about the third quarter?
October 9th, 2014 at 4:56 PM ^
...to pass out Pudding Pops to everyone.
October 9th, 2014 at 5:11 PM ^
October 9th, 2014 at 5:06 PM ^
October 9th, 2014 at 4:58 PM ^
That graphic pretty much speaks for itself. Everyone gets Orange Sherbet at Halftime apparently.
The 4th Q scoring advantage is skewed, because when Michigan is always down they score garbage time points late when opposing defenses are in Prevent D.
October 9th, 2014 at 5:00 PM ^
in the last eight games. Wonder what they DO do at halftime? [EDIT scatological speculation.]
October 9th, 2014 at 5:07 PM ^
That our coaches arent good at halftime adjustments? I didnt see a conclusion?
/s
October 9th, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^
but we're gonna make that score look prettier in the 4th quarter
October 9th, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^
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October 9th, 2014 at 7:00 PM ^
October 9th, 2014 at 5:26 PM ^
Opp | Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th/OT | Diff | 3rd Q D vs Avg |
ND | 2011 | -14 | 4 | -7 | 21 | 4 | 0.75 |
Minn | 2011 | 14 | 24 | 10 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
NU | 2011 | -7 | -3 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 6 |
MSU | 2011 | 0 | 0 | -10 | 0 | -10 | -7 |
Purdue | 2011 | 0 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 22 | 3.5 |
Iowa | 2011 | -1 | -10 | 3 | 0 | -8 | 6 |
Illinois | 2011 | 7 | 7 | -4 | 7 | 17 | -3.5 |
Neb | 2011 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 28 | -2.75 |
OSU | 2011 | 9 | -10 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 8.5 |
VT | 2012 | -3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | 3 | -6 |
2011 Season | 8 | 38 | 23 | 69 | 138 | 5.5 | |
Alabama | 2012 | -21 | -3 | 4 | -7 | -27 | 7.25 |
ND | 2012 | 0 | -10 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3.25 |
Purdue | 2012 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 31 | 3.25 |
Illinois | 2012 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
MSU | 2012 | 0 | 6 | -7 | 3 | 2 | -4.5 |
Neb | 2012 | 0 | -1 | -6 | -7 | -14 | -3.25 |
Minn | 2012 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 3.25 |
NU | 2012 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 10 | 7 | -2.25 |
Iowa | 2012 | 0 | 18 | 14 | -7 | 25 | 4.25 |
OSU | 2012 | -3 | 4 | -3 | -3 | -5 | 3.5 |
S. Car | 2013 | -11 | 3 | 9 | -6 | -5 | 8.25 |
2012 Season | -18 | 42 | 39 | 11 | 74 | 23 | |
ND | 2013 | 3 | 11 | 0 | -3 | 11 | 0.5 |
Minn | 2013 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 29 | 0.25 |
PSU | 2013 | 3 | -14 | 14 | -3 | 0 | 7.75 |
Indiana | 2013 | 7 | 4 | -9 | 14 | 16 | -11.25 |
MSU | 2013 | 0 | -7 | -3 | -13 | -23 | 4.25 |
Neb | 2013 | -10 | 3 | 7 | -4 | -4 | 4.25 |
NU | 2013 | 0 | -3 | -3 | 14 | 8 | 1.75 |
Iowa | 2013 | 0 | 14 | -7 | -10 | -3 | -1 |
OSU | 2013 | 0 | 0 | -14 | 13 | -1 | -3.5 |
KSU | 2013 | -11 | -4 | 0 | -2 | -17 | 7.75 |
2013 Season | -8 | 11 | -4 | 17 | 16 | 10.75 | |
ND | 2014 | -7 | -14 | -7 | -3 | -31 | 0.75 |
Utah | 2014 | 0 | -3 | -7 | -6 | -16 | -0.5 |
Minn | 2014 | 0 | -3 | -17 | 4 | -16 | -9.5 |
Rutgers | 2014 | -3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 6.5 |
2014 To Date | -10 | -19 | -31 | -5 | -65 | -2.75 | |
-28 | 72 | 27 | 92 | 163 | 36.5 |
October 9th, 2014 at 5:37 PM ^
First, the discussion here isn't in-game adjustments, it's half-time adjustments. While that is where most of the in-game adjustments happen, it isn't where all of them happen. You can't simply throw out the 2nd quarter data or the 4th quarter data.
Second, over the course of Hoke's tenure, the 3rd quarter hasn't been as strong as the 2nd or 4th quarter. But it's the 1st quarter (initial game plan) that suffers the worst. A lot of this, honestly, is a big ole -21 against Bama.
Third, in 2011 thru the first half of 2013, Michigan was very strong with third quarter adjustments. It wasn't until their weaknesses were exposed that they struggled to "adjust". What this indicates to me isn't that this staff isn't capable of half-time adjustments, but more that the team simply wasn't that good, particularly on offense. You saw a similar trend during portions of the Rich Rod era, where he would have success with his knew wrinkle, the opponent would adjust, and then the 3rd quarter numbers would be bad (remember Minor Rage). A team that isn't very good will have fewer things to adjust to and won't be as good at those adjustments.
Fourth, you cannot deny Michigan's ability to finish games. This year is a bit of an anomoly because teams have been mostly coasting to a victory, but before this year Michigan was +87 in the 4th quarter. They were +91 in the 2nd quarter. That means they are likely making the appropriate changes once they see what the opponent is doing. The issue likely stems from anticipating what the opponent is going to try to do, but in-game they can make changes.
Lastly, the defense has clearly made half-time adjustments. Most of the "no half-time changes" comes in the 2nd half of 2013 and 2014, when the offense was really bad. A lot of this is the OL. When your OL isn't very good you can't make the small adjustments to get better, because hell, your just trying to do the first things decently.
So, in conclusion, what I believe this shows isn't that the coaches can't make in-game adjustments or changes. Rather, it shows that the team in the 2nd half of 2013 and now in 2014 simply isn't that good. Obviously that still falls on the coaches, but it's a different look at it.
October 9th, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^
Seems like it takes awhile for these teams to get into te flow, both at kickoff and after the half. Does that mean they're just lousy and getting up for the game? Maybe our "adjustments" are actually making the players overthink and play tight? Something else?
October 9th, 2014 at 6:14 PM ^
That's delta scoring. So it means the opponent scored the same amount as Michigan in those instances.
It's much lower than the other quarters, so some of it is initial gameplan. Some of it may be the players not knowing how to adjust on the fly and needing coaching to make the correct adjustments (thus you see the 1st the 2nd quarter difference). Or it could be guys not fired up to play.
October 9th, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^
The average differentials from 2013 MSU onwards in this table are interesting, because it seems like it is showing where the slide in performance seemed to accelerate a bit and then carry into this year. Actually, in that time frame - quarter-by-quarter - you would get -3.1, -1.6, -5.1 and -0.7 in order by quarter. I do agree though, this seems like it is more a problem attributable to the struggles of the offense.
October 10th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^
As is often quipped - "There lies, damn lies, and statistics."
October 9th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
Avert thine eyes.