Loyola and Michigan Winning Streak Analysis

Submitted by Indonacious on

SInce 02/01, Loyola has a 14 game winning streak. Their barttorvik t-rank during this time places them at #20 nationally. 

During the same timeframe, other remaining tourney teams are as follows: https://tinyurl.com/since0201rankings

#1 Vilanova 14-3 record
#2 Michigan 14-1 (only loss to NW)
#10 Kansas 13-3

One interesting feature I discovered is where the ranking system gives a "game score" for each performance.

In our winning streak,  our worst performance was technically our Iowa OT win with a score of 86. Our next worse was 92 against houston. We have many near perfect scores at 98-99 range.

Conversely, Loyola has had multiple games in the 70s-80s, with their best performance during this streak being the kansas state game with a score of 98. 

Overall, not sure how to interpret this other than, loyola has been playing well during this streak (a top 20 team), but their game scores may suggest that their performances haven't been that dominating during this streak.

Other Links:
http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Loyola+Chicago
http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Michigan
 

MGoBoard
Basketball

SerbianHitMan

March 26th, 2018 at 2:01 PM ^

Look where Loyola and Michigan rank nationally.  5th and 8th repsectively.  Duke is 32nd, Villanova further down than that, and Kansas even further down than that.  Now, does that mean one conference is more competitive than the other?  Possibly.  The ACC this season has about 4 teams, including North Carolina who play no defense at all.  Hence why A & M rightfully handed them their asses.  Kansas is more offensive oriented as is Duke this seaon, which is kind of suprising since both coaches are very defensive oriented.  Villanova I think plays as good a defense as anyone in the country, and probably equal to Michigan.  Gonna be a great Final Four.  Go Blue!! 

Check the link below:

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/defensive-stats

Joined: 03/11/2018

MGoPoints: 76

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 26th, 2018 at 9:25 AM ^

Eye test confirms this.  Didn't they win their first 3 tourney games on buzzer beaters in each game?  Then dropped the hammer on a short handed and already outmanned KSU team.  I hope that streak does not continue.  They gotta be due for a clunker/unlucky game soon, right?

Joined: 12/29/2010

MGoPoints: 40902

MH20

March 26th, 2018 at 9:59 AM ^

They beat Miami on a true buzzer-beater, beat Tennessee on a shot with six seconds left (UT had one last ditch attempt) and beat Nevada by one (Nevada got a three with :01 left). K-State wins that game, IMO, if Dean Wade is able to play. I know that seems silly to say considering they lost by 16 but he was that big of a difference maker for the Wildcats this season.

If Michigan plays its game (defend like crazy, control the defensive glass, make threes, and force LC to defend Moe up top), they should win.

Joined: 10/30/2008

MGoPoints: 40718

Pickle Rick

March 26th, 2018 at 9:38 AM ^

Michigan has essentially made it to the Final Four while having dreadful shooting performances in 3/4 tournament games. That's the most impressive fact to me about this tourny run.

Joined: 06/28/2013

MGoPoints: 1451

Maize and Luke

March 26th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^

It keeps coming back to defense. Zero transition points for FSU. Clearly Loyola is much smaller than our last 2 opponents. This means UM can put less focus on the paint and more focus on their shooters. And offensively Loyola isn't a big threat to block shots which has to excite MAAR and Z. their guards are pesky defensively which should limit drives but overall this is a good matchup for UM.

Joined: 01/19/2014

MGoPoints: 9079

MichiganG

March 26th, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^

Not disputing it, but the ranking also puts Duke ahead of Kansas, and Virginia over virtually everyone (and especially UMBC.)  When the n=1 anything can happen.

Joined: 05/20/2012

MGoPoints: 960

Mich fan in AZ

March 26th, 2018 at 10:15 PM ^

I looked at all of the Final Four and a few things jumped to me. Loyola has, not surprisingly, played by far the weakest strength of schedule. They've performed a bit better in the tournament though, so it will be a tough one for sure. I remain unconvinced though that they've faced a defense like ours. If we beat Loyola, we will get one of two teams who take and make a lot of threes. However, we also give up the fewest number of attempts of the teams left. Interesting potential matchup either way. Kansas not only has the weakest defense left, but their offensive rebounding percentage is about 2 percent lower than their opponents' same rate. I'm thinking that can't be good for them, no matter how much we struggle to collect offensive rebounds. Villanova defensively has several categories ranked worse than 100. This seems to corroborate the thinking that they need a shootout to win. A matchup with them would remind me of our game with Louisville in 2013 a bit. Didn't we have the top offense and they had the top defense? It won't be easy but I really do think we have a fair shot at beating these guys if we advance and they do too for this reason. Finally, #1 in the last 10 games is us! I know that doesn't mean a great deal, but I just really like our chances if we play our best. Still, this is all theoretical. One game at a time! GO BLUE!!! EDIT: Totally misread one of the stats!

Joined: 03/19/2018

MGoPoints: 376