Looking (a little too far) Ahead... March Madness Finals

Submitted by MGrether on February 25th, 2021 at 2:22 PM

I am a Michigan enthusiast, but I don't keep a very good pulse on the rest of Basketball. 

Anyone watch Gonzaga or Baylor this season? How do we match up? It seemed like Lindell from OSU gave us some issues with his Stretch 5, but we were able to work through schemes and rotations to mitigate their advantage of pulling Dickerson away from the rim. Are there any obvious matchup issues that Baylor/Gonzaga pose for us? Or do we have a strong hand to take us all the way through if we play it right?

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UMFanatic96

February 25th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^

I'm by no means an expert. Gonzaga has just a great team all around highlighted by freshman guard Jalen Suggs and stud wing Corey Kispert. They run great offense and Mark Few always has his teams playing good, balanced basketball. 

For Baylor, they're one of the deepest teams in college basketball. They rely on great defense and turning you over (3rd in the country in forcing TOs). They also shoot the crap out of the ball. They're currently 1st in the country in 3 point % 

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mi93

February 25th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^

Baylor's athleticism opens up the 3 because of their ability to drive.  If you've seen Bama, you've seen a less talented Baylor play - very similar.

A disciplined team, with a balanced O, can definitely beat Baylor.  I think Gonzaga and M are both better than Baylor overall, but Baylor is dangerous and able to whomp anyone.

I think Gonzaga and M are really similar, but Gonzaga feels more seasoned (right or wrong).  M will enter March far more battle tested.

And it's way too early.  Every game in March makes me nervous.  Survive and advance.

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mbrummer

February 25th, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^

I honestly think if we're a 1 seed.  Gonzaga will get bounced before the the final 4.  Not that they aren't good.  They just haven't played a game in 3.5 months.

Baylor is more athletic version of OSU.. Better defense, better shooting, better lead guard.

They do have a 6'8 forward and 6'10 forward .. But that's it.

They have the one thing that seems to be our achilles heel a 6'4 guard who is a primary ball handler who can score at 3 levels over our guards.  Butler

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MgoHillbilly

February 25th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^

Until the other day, I would have said I'd rather face Gonzaga than Baylor, but woof, Baylor almost dropped one to a terrible team. So now I dunno. They are both beatable any given day.

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1VaBlue1

February 25th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^

I watched a fair amount of Baylor's demolition of Kansas.  Despite the relatively close score difference (~10 points), Baylor was in control of that game every step of the way.  Sort of similar to our last game against Rutger - the score was fairly close at the end, but we had control of it throughout the game.  The ease at which Baylor maintained that control over a team as good as Kansas was a little worrisome...

But I do see Michigan at the same level as Gonzaga and Baylor, which is a full step (or two) above the other really good teams (Kansas, Illinois, etc).  I can envision a closer game than was the OSU matchup against either team.  An evenly officiated 3 point difference...

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San Diego Mick

February 25th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^

Kansas is not that good, they're ok, I've watched them quite a bit and they make a lot of boneheaded plays. Jalen Wilson should have stayed with his Michigan commitment, imagine if Kansas didn't have him.

Gonzaga is really good but they haven't faced anyone really good since December and the uptick in competition will affect them eventually, they might make it to the final four but Michigan and Gonzaga are equally better than last year and we smoked that team by double digits.

The Big 12 is good but not nearly as deep as the B1G is or as top heavy. Baylor is a great team though, I think they're better than Gonzaga. 

But if Michigan plays at the level they have been, I like our chances against anyone. 

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ak47

February 25th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^

Gonzaga and Baylor are both better teams on paper and by advanced stats. Its by no means a reason Michigan can't compete, but we would be a deserved underdog to both. I think Baylor's defensive guards would cause us more trouble than Gonzaga as a specific matchup.

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Sambojangles

February 25th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^

Baylor has played one game in the last month and it was a come-from-behind home win against a bad (winless in the B12) Iowa State team. That was probably COVID legs, as they got better as the game went on. But it wasn't a very impressive outing, way less than our first win at Wisconsin. We'll have to wait to see if they can get back to their pre-break form in time for the tournament. 

According to Kenpom and Torvik rankings, there was a clear gap between Gonzaga/Baylor and Michigan/the rest of the country before last week. The win over OSU and Baylor's mediocre showing have brought them back - Michigan is now closer to Baylor than Baylor is to Gonzaga.

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Kilgore Trout

February 25th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^

Another question I have been thinking about lately is if there is any lane that Michigan could get the #1 overall seed? The big advantage in that would be in a chalk world Baylor and Gonzaga would then play in a semi-final with Michigan on the other side. 

Obviously Baylor and Gonzaga losing would help, but what about if all three win out? Michigan would add wins against the current 4, 6,34, and 62(x2) teams in the regular season and could theoretically beat #s 24, 4, and 6 in a chalk BTT. Is that good enough? Probably not, but considering Gonzaga and Baylor are likely to end the season with only one top 10 win each, it's worth at least thinking about. Would be nice if they each picked up a loss. Most likely situation is UM will lose one or two down the stretch here. 

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cbutter

February 25th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^

I really don't even understand this discussion? We are talking about a national championship game and haven't even finished conference play. Make a run that deep in the tournament is really hard, no matter how good your team is. Takes one bad night against a quality opponent and that's it. How about they just take care of business against Iowa tonight first before we raise the 2021 final four banner?

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LSAClassOf2000

February 25th, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^

First, you're right, it is far too early to discuss this with any precision.

Second, I would be nervous about Baylor - they are deep, athletic and it would be a really tough draw even for us. I can see a scenario where we can beat them, but it would be a really tough game regardless. I think Gonzaga and Michigan are rather similar actually.

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Michigan Zag

February 25th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^

Gonzaga is where I did my undergrad, so I have watched every single game they have played this year. As always people will have their doubts no matter what because it is a locked into a weaker conference due to location and luthier non-existent football team.

That said, it is easily their best team they have ever had. They are on a whole different level than I ever seen from them. For context, team is built differently than the 2013 squad that competed in the national championship game, but everyone in the Gonzaga community agrees this team would blow that team out of the gym. 

There are a few things that stand out to me. The first is that this is the offense is a machine, with elite ball movement that is the closest resemblance to the 2013-2104 Spurs I have ever seen at the college level. The ball never sticks and they seem to get open shots at will against any team, and any play style. They shoot well, but they are so proficient at getting open looks anywhere on the floor they want that it almost becomes scoring at will. Even if you stop 1 or 2 of their All-Americans, they have a 3rd ready and two more NBA level players in the starting 5. (Say what you want about competition but they dropped 98 on UVA without even breaking a sweat and putting branch warmers in midway through the 2nd half)

The other big difference this year is Jalen Suggs. Obviously the Michigan community loves Hunter Dickinson and what he has brought as a freshman. Suggs has been that and more at times for GU. He has played himself into an easily top 5 draft pick, and depending on the rest of the season maybe more. When I watch him I am reminded of a Jason Kidd/Chauncey Billups hybrid. The only thing that could slow him is foul trouble, so that is something Michigan should look to take advantage of. He is so big and strong that he can get called for charges at a decent clip. If I was Juwan I would look to try to take advantage of that, but easier said than done. 

Their biggest weakness is the lack of elite rim protection, which they try to cover for with their general length on the perimeter, forcing turnovers, and their knowledge that they will just out score you if push comes to shove. I think GU is the best team in the country, but of course Michigan can beat them in the tourney, it is college basketball. That is what makes March Madness so great, anything can happen. 

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