?[LOCKED] OT: Woah, what's going on with COVID in Michigan?

Submitted by JamesBondHerpesMeds on April 6th, 2021 at 5:38 PM

This is neither intended to be a political post nor a flame war, just seeking information. Famous last words, I know.

Michigan's COVID case count was higher than California, Florida, or Texas yesterday. I'm not paying close attention to what's going on there -- is there something happening that's causing this outbreak (lower restrictions, new variant, something else)?

Meanwhile, hope everyone stays safe in the Mitten. <3

[Locking because....NM, just read thru it yourselves and you'll see the usual misbehaving few] -rob f,  10:30 pm

Wendyk5

April 6th, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^

Sorry to hear this. How serious is it? We have a friend who got vaccinated a week ago, and then five days later, his wife developed symptoms so he and his wife and son got tested. They all tested positive, but his symptoms were minor compared to the other two, and he is overweight so has a co-morbidity. Wondering if even one dose lessened the symptoms. 

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ColoradoBlue

April 6th, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^

I'm hoping that by mid-summer these conversations will come to an abrupt end since the stats will only pertain to the people who refused the vaccine.  One can hope.

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blue in dc

April 6th, 2021 at 9:18 PM ^

You might want to quote the article you cite correctly:

“Looking at studies on natural immunity from the coronavirus, experts hypothesize that protective immunity from the vaccines will last at least six to eight months. And if immunity from SARS-CoV-2 ends up being similar to other seasonal coronaviruses, such as “common colds,” it is even possible the vaccines could provide protection for up to a year or two before requiring a booster, the experts said.”

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Leaders And Best

April 6th, 2021 at 6:35 PM ^

Probably multiple factors working together but hard to know for certain right now:

1. Reopening schools, youth sports, and restaurants: Michigan's restrictions to slow spread over the winter worked, and  Michigan had less community spread compared to other states. This was shown in some studies like American Red Cross which is screening blood donors for COVID-19 antibodies. Michigan had one of the lower rates in the country, especially in the Midwest where it was surrounded by states with more COVID. This also made the state more vulnerable to outbreaks with more susceptible population.

https://www.redcrossblood.org/local-homepage/news/article/american-red-cross-releases-a-set-of-interactive-maps-depicting-.html

2. Variants: The B.1.1.7 variant has been shown to be more transmissible than original strain in children which has blown up some of the early understanding of the virus where the original strain was not as infectious in children. This has led to more outbreaks linked to schools and youth sports.

3. Pandemic fatigue: People are tired after restrictions and winter. More nonessential travel, less mask adherence, decrease in social distancing.

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Ronswanson13

April 6th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^

Unfortunately for other states to come, Michigan’s current situation isn’t likely going to be very unique other than being one of the first places where the UK variant spread. Like someone said above, similar to how we were among the first states to be impacted on the very onset of the pandemic.

That University of Minnesota doctor has been predicting this for a while ever since they understood how contagious this variant is.

The good news is that many of our most vulnerable have been vaccinated, which should limit the deaths. But the next month will be very interesting to see how the 30-60 yr old group handles it in terms of hospitalizations and death.

On the bright side, this could mean that Michigan ends up being one of the first states to reach something close to herd immunity with the current outbreak and vaccinations moving fairly well.

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chunkums

April 6th, 2021 at 6:42 PM ^

Yup, a number of epidemiologists have been shouting from the hilltops that a B.1.1.7 wave was coming. People just didn't want to hear about it because they were sick of COVID. Fingers crossed that the vaccine eliminates most of the deaths.

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goblue2121

April 6th, 2021 at 7:18 PM ^

Bats are to blame. Their PR team has done an incredible job burying the lead. They outsmarted us. Which didn't appear to be all that difficult.

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Qmatic

April 6th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^

Finished my 10 day quarantine and had a negative test so I’m in the clear. 

Glad to be on the other side. And so thankful I made a conscious decision to focus on my health 3 years ago...I know it could have been so much worse.

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UMProud

April 6th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^

Northern cold climate states plus Florida...I'll take Spring Break Super Spreaders for 1000 Alex

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1M1Ucla

April 6th, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^

Basically, policy isn’t behavior.  Michigan happens to have a copious amount of FU behavior.  No masks, big gatherings (snowmobile bars — see Otsego County numbers — basically rebellion parties — see Macomb county numbers), new more contagious variants, legislature and courts undermine policy, then the governor relents, and boom.  And the new strains seem to affect younger people more than the original version.  Virus gotta virus.
 

 

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NittanyFan

April 6th, 2021 at 8:30 PM ^

In 4 words: "Convergence toward each other."

------------------

I do NOT think it's a coincidence that's Michigan to-date aggregate per capita case count was one of the lower ones up until now.

The 10 states with the highest Rts right now (per CovidActNow), and where they rank in aggregate per capita cases (per WorldOMeters):

Michigan (42), Nebraska (10), Vermont (50), Illinois (21), Hawaii (51), Alaska (38), Washington (47), Maine (49), Pennsylvania (39), Oregon (48).

(DC is considered a "state" in my listings above - thus Hawaii at 51st)

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It's been a trend for months now, but all the states are converging toward each other over time.

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Sllepy81

April 6th, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^

Well regardless of stats, percentages and all that, my wife reads xrays out of state for Chicago hospitals and cases are increasing for the admitted chest xrays showing covid this week. Vaccines are out so everyone not vaccinated also went relaxed about rules with vaccinated people, they're sharing it. 

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