Line vs Rutgers could be historic
November 5th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
Like others have said, this has to be wrong. I wonder if what they said / meant to say was that the biggest spread in favor of a road team for a B1G conference game is 38.5.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
That has to be false. Nebraska had some epic spreads in the 90's
November 5th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
I want to know how Rutgers gave Northwestern a scare. I didn't see the game, but it was certainly weird to check that score periodically and see the Scarlet Knights hanging around.
November 5th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^
ESPN's match-up predictor currently gives Michigan a 98.3% win probability, and Rutgers 1.7% win probability.
Three sort of serious questions:
1. Give that they adjust win probabilities in real time during games, if Rutgers fails to run back the opening kick for a TD, does will Michigan's win probability immediately go to 99.9%?
2. What goes into that 1.7% win probability for Rutgers? Earth opens up on the visitor's sideline and swallows entire Michigan team?
3. What is the highest ever pre-kick win probability in the ESPN predictor model between power 5 conference opponents? Ever higher than than 98.3%? If so, which game? Best guess: if it ever happened it had to involve Kansas against a Big 12 opponent. Pretty sure some of the very worst Kansas teams were worse than 2018 version of Rutgers.
Bonus random thought: Even if the game is fully decided before the half or early in the 3rd, beating the spread will depend almost entirely on how much playing time JH wants to get 2nd and 3rd string and/or whether JH thinks blowout style points will be important for getting a playoff spot. Winning 63-3 (or thereabouts) could in some small way blunt the 'But Oklahoma's offense!...' argument within the playoff committee for the 4th playoff spot.
November 5th, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
39.5 first half maybe
November 5th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
I don't think we cover a 39.5 point spread.
1, Rutgers has looked better in recent weeks with only a 3 point loss to Northwestern and 14 point loss to Wisconsin.
2, We want to be healthy, especially with McCaffery getting injured. Any sizeable lead and Patterson and Higdon both come off. Gary probably plays sparingly, etc..
3, Harbaugh will likely be content to bleed the clock and shorten the game.
4, I don't see Harbaugh letting Patterson run as much.
November 5th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^
Excellent post. You said it all better than I ever could.
November 5th, 2018 at 3:35 PM ^
What if Rutgers Fences The Garden again?
November 5th, 2018 at 3:55 PM ^
you misspelled hysteric.
November 5th, 2018 at 4:09 PM ^
I think that is fake... jsut did a quick Google and there have been several upsets with lines over 40
http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20604504/gambling-10-biggest-colle…
November 6th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
The OP said road spread, meaning the home team was a massive underdog. None of the games in your link had the road team being the dog.
November 5th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
Those Scarlet Knights are pretty stingy on the kick off coverage..... so there's that.
November 5th, 2018 at 4:51 PM ^
I heard -36.5 on the radio, but then it fluctuates so rapidly sometimes. That said, I don't know how much people would honestly pour onto Rutgers given the line right now though. This seems like it will lead to a Catastrophic Rutger.