Klatt and Cowherd debate the playoff standings value of the MSU game
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hAzDvVTZEY
2:40 to about 6:00.
I agree more with Klatt. Don't think you should rank team A ahead of team B, when team B won head to head and they have the same record.
I watched the MSU game twice. Fantastic college game. And I agree with everything that's been said and written about how Michigan stacked up against them. Including what Cowherd mentions. Plus what the conference admitted about the officiating.
But still.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^
Nice try, Mel! Pretty soft of you to drop this here
November 17th, 2021 at 5:28 PM ^
Candidly, the pearl-clutching about UM over MSU is exhausting.
Each team controls their own destiny, which makes the ranking arbitrary. If you win out, you'll be in the playoff.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
MSU controls their destiny, Michigan needs an MSU loss. If both teams win out that means MSU goes to the Big Ten championship game, and if they win there they're in the playoffs, no question. If Ohio State beats MSU, Michigan controls their destiny.
(Except we don't because if Michigan beats Ohio State the kid whose dynasty we live in will hit reset and start over.)
The pearl-clutching over the rankings doesn't matter at all because one of these teams will either lose to Ohio State, meaning they're out, or go to the Big Ten championship. If an 11-1 MSU goes to the Big Ten CG over 11-1 Michigan and loses, 11-1 Michigan should get in over 11-2 MSU for the same reason Ohio State went in 2016 over Big Ten champion Penn State in 2016. If MSU bellyaches then, laugh.
And this all assumes wins over Ohio State. It's just talk.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
"just talk": our favorite thing here
November 17th, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
If MSU beats Ohio State and Penn State and wins the big ten championship game they deserve to go, bad ref calls and all. Odds on that have to be well below 10%.
If Michigan beats Maryland and OSU and MSU has also won out then the ref calls will have really really sucked. Odds of that are probably 1%. If we win out including the B1G championship, because MSU lost a second game, we'll go to the CFP.
Frankly I don't really care about the CFP. OSU is our superbowl. If we beat them we have met all of our goals. That is our destiny. Our fate is in our own hands*.
*(If the refs don't screw us.)
November 17th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
Enough of the...
Or I'll get the vapors...
November 17th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
if your 3rd paragraph happens the ncaa will change course and take someone else. the pollsters, ncaa and big ten seem to go out of their way to screw UM at every turn.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
I don’t get this line of thinking, the rankings matter because of what they say about the committee and how they make the decisions, which is poorly.
beyond that it matters because if both Michigan and msu lose to osu as expected it makes it more likely Michigan goes to the rose bowl over msu as a higher ranked 10-2 team.
November 17th, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^
If the Rose Bowl has to choose between a 10-2 MSU & 10-2 UM, they'll go with UM regardless of the rankings because UM is a better draw.
November 18th, 2021 at 8:27 AM ^
I thought that the Rose bowl would take the team with the higher CFB ranking?
November 18th, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
... In what is known as a “traditional” Rose Bowl Game year, like the 2021-22 college football season, the Rose Bowl Game is contractually obligated to feature the Pac-12 Conference Champion and the Big Ten Conference Champion....
Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to play in the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference.
If the Big Ten Champion is selected for the CFP. The Tournament of Roses is not contractually obligated to take the higher-ranked team. They could choose any other Big Ten team if they wanted.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^
The most chaotic of outcomes would be:
MSU and U-M win out
MSU destroys OSU @OSU
U-M squeaks by OSU @U-M in a game equally as controversial as U-M@MSU, and some combination of Olave/Garrett/Stroud get injured/COVID in the week after MSU but before U-M
MSU barely loses to Iowa (loss to Wisc would give U-M favorable comps to the win @Wisc) in the Championship game in another controversial game
November 17th, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
How about Staee wins out and wins BTCG. Mich wins out. Bama loses to Georgia. Oregon loses to Utah. Playoffs are Georgia, Staee, Cincinnati, and Michigan. ND and Oklahoma left out.
November 18th, 2021 at 8:33 AM ^
You would need to hope a two loss big twelve champion as well. I don't think a 12-1 Oklahoma or Oklahoma State gets left out for 11-1 Michigan.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:11 PM ^
I think 11-1 michigan has a really good case for the playoffs regardless of what happens to msu. We gotta get there first tho.
November 17th, 2021 at 8:50 PM ^
Most likely and the probable outcome. But I do feel if a 11-1 Michigan wins out they are in, ergo controls their own destiny even without going to the B1G CG.
This is without taking into account that Bama will meet up with Georgia in the SEC CG and MSU is no gimme to win the the B1G CG.
Who beats us out" Cincy?--Nope. Oregon?--Nope (They beat OSU, but so did we).
JMO. I've seen stranger shit happen.
November 17th, 2021 at 11:33 PM ^
if Bama beats UGA, both will be in no matter what. That leaves 2 spots for the playoff for a bunch of 1 loss teams.
November 18th, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
I'm not sure about that. I find it hard to believe they would put 2 teams in from the SEC with 3 other 1 loss conference championships.
I realize Alabama and Georgia are ranked in the top 4 now by the committee, but remember the committee only evaluates the games played, not the future games.
This also applies if Michigan and State both won out. Michigan isn't going to get an invite over Ok State or Oregon or Wake for that matter if they win their conference, nor should they.
All this is moot because State's terrible pass defense is going up against the nations best pass offense this weekend. Unless State scores 50, I don't see how OSU doesn't.
November 18th, 2021 at 7:21 AM ^
I would still characterize Michigan as controlling its own destiny-though it does depend upon how one define "destiny". If Michigan, indeed, wins out the "reward" will be significantly higher than any reasonably expected preseason prognostication. They will have beaten, at least, Wisconsin, PSU and OSU.
Even the most BPONE posters on this board have to concede that the committee holds Michigan in very high regard. Should Michigan win out, any scenario would land Michigan at no lower than #5-surely this cannot be objectively disagreed with. The only question would be Oregon-with regards to our Wolverines making it into the CFP. Any way you slice this loaf, given our last several decade history, I will celebrate this "destiny".
November 18th, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
The CFP rankings matter for the Rose Bowl. If OSU goes to the playoff and both U-M and MSU finish 10-2, the higher-ranked one goes to Pasadena.
https://tournamentofroses.com/2022-rose-bowl-game-returns-to-traditional-format/
November 18th, 2021 at 10:55 AM ^
Read that language carefully.
Should a team from the Big Ten or Pac-12 be selected to play in the College Football Playoff, the Tournament of Roses will traditionally select the next-highest CFP-ranked team from that conference
(Italics added)
"Traditionally select" leaves a lot of wiggle room. The Rose Bowl Committee has confirmed that they take other factors onto account like head-to-head match up, regular season schedule, the last time a team has played in the Rose Bowl, historical match ups
November 18th, 2021 at 12:42 PM ^
If OSU beats MSU and UM, and MSU beats PSU, that leaves both at 10-2. I assume the Rose Bowl will take the higher ranked of the two, so that's where it becomes interesting.
November 18th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
But what if MSU wins their last two, we win our last two, and MSU goes to the championship game...and loses? In that scenario, it is almost certain that UM would finish the season ranked above them, with MSU only losing because they had to play an extra, neutral-site game against the West champ. Shades of "we had to play while UM was on their couch" a la 2011.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
Michigan doesn’t control their own destiny.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
Yeah, but do they control the remote?
November 19th, 2021 at 8:24 AM ^
You and Klatt both have a point-and both of you are way over-playing it. It is a peculiar position for Michigan to be in-the committee seems to like us...will select us if given reasonable opportunity!
November 17th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
Candidly, openly, full-throatedly and without reservation, it's ridiculous.
But it serves its purpose (not that I like the purpose).... this is a message board thread, about a segment on an afternoon sports radio talk show, about a TV show, where they predict weeks in advance who will be in the college football tournament.
It's ALL intended to induce conversation. None of the current (future past) conversation is interesting once the games are played.
My stars did you hear what Joel Klatt said to Colin Cowherd about what David Pollack thinks about the tournament committee's decision about the 2nd runner up NOT in the tournament???
November 18th, 2021 at 7:24 AM ^
Such a self inflicted wound. The committee should have just kept MSU in front based on the head to head. They know it is all going to play out over the next two weeks and it will have been a controversy over nothing. Although I guess that is college football's lifeblood.
November 18th, 2021 at 8:44 AM ^
The committee, by extension, clearly made a comment on their rankings choices about the officiating in a game in East Lansing where the B1G Commissioners son was playing for the home team.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
Hypothetical:
Team A beats Team B in a close game. Team A goes to 8-0, Team B goes to 7-1.
The next week, Team A loses 42-0 to a D-IAA school, and Team B beats an FBS school. Both teams are now 8-1.
Team A is 8-1 with a terrible loss to a weak opponent. Team B has a loss in a close game to what was at the time a top and undefeated opponent.
In this scenario, how do you NOT rank Team B over Team A?
November 17th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^
And team A was the home team and got outgained by 157 yards, hypothetically.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:09 PM ^
And gifted an extra 4 points by a group of officials who said "fuck the rules" and reversed a touchdown without compelling video evidence.
Hypothetically.
November 17th, 2021 at 8:41 PM ^
This is the key point ^^.
The committee thinks that the better team didn't win the M-MSU game. I think it's probably as simple as that. IIRC, the coaches poll reflects this as well.
Ref screw job in the head to head and then MSU loses to Purdue. Done deal.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^
wasn't this ND and Fla St several years ago when FSU had charlie ward? both teams had one loss. ND beat FSU but FSU won the national title.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
ND lost to a ranked Boston College team.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:07 PM ^
the point is, the voters didn't care about head to head
November 17th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
God bless that BC team. One of the best "I am so glad that team lost" games ever.
November 18th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^
And the kick looked at first like it had no chance. Then it just, like, shifted and BC won.
November 17th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
Really stretching the definition of "several years" if you're talking about Charlie Ward
November 17th, 2021 at 7:42 PM ^
Hey i am old enough to remember bumper stickers that said (in blue and gold)
NOTRE DAME 31
NATIONAL CHAMPS 24
November 17th, 2021 at 11:35 PM ^
That game wasn't really that close, though.
November 17th, 2021 at 7:53 PM ^
Yeah, I really didn't get that one. ND had a good team and beat FSU straight-up. That one left a bad taste in my mouth. For the record, I liked the FSU and ND teams in that era.
Time does matter. If you are going to lose then lose early. (OSU this year.) However, I believe that head to head should carry a lot of weight but you do get to ask if they played again would a reasonable, unbiased evaluator expect the outcome be the same?
November 18th, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
Yeah that was the Charlie Ward is gods gift to football season. Nd should have played Nebraska in the title game. ND did put everything into that game and the loss to BC the next week Lou Holtz made a huge mistake and fired Rick Minter the DC. Still hard to believe how big a mistake that was. Lol.
That said, Fsu winning the title was a joke but it also was the lets do everything we can to let Bobby Bowden win one. If only they would have done that for Bo..
November 17th, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^
That's right. If Sparty had any collective sense (oh, well) they'd be flattered by the state of affairs. Michigan is ranked higher because their only loss is to an elite team (Sparty). Simple.
November 17th, 2021 at 9:20 PM ^
Well no, because if Sparty were elite, they'd be ahead of us.
The committee is genuinely disrespecting Sparty here - and with reason. They watched the game too.
November 18th, 2021 at 8:50 AM ^
I agree. You can say head to head is the most important, and I won't say you're wrong. You can also say one team had a far worse loss, and I also won't say you're wrong.
As with 99% of CFB rankings griping/prognosticating/stupid discussion since the start of the playoff, it will generally all work out by the time the final rankings come out. Unless they put ND in again, which at that point, come on. "Maybe THIS time they won't get blown out by Bama/Georgia/Clemson." Sure.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
If MSU and Michigan win out, MSU 100% should go to the big ten championship game. There is no argument there.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:45 PM ^
That’s what will happen. The rankings don’t decide that.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
Well, yeah. If they win out they'll be division champions by virtue of H2H record. There's nothing to argue.
November 17th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
There is no way State beats Ohio. I mean, no way. That I feel the same about our chances of beating OSU means neither of us sniffs the playoffs and all this talk simply proves the old joke...
Why is talk cheap?? Because the supply always exceeds the demand.