Is John O'Korn The Great Hope?
Next year's defense is going to be great, right? Our OL is mostly back, and there's even cautious optimism that Cole might be able to fill right in at center with Newsome moving to LT, and one of our RBs (or a future 5-star RB, hypothetically) will surely be able to have a strong season next year.
Our receivers are good but not great, but the play on the field has clearly shown that Harbaugh and Drevno know how to draw up plays that will get them open. They just need someone to get them the ball.
...It sounds to me like we're a QB away from being a serious playoff contender next season. Like, really serious, preseason top 5 type. But it doesn't look like it will be Shane, with mounting whisper evidence that he may transfer. Wilton Speight made a couple of plays but there's no evidence that he's anything other than a career backup here. And it's not clear yet what Zach Gentry will be--Angelique Chengelis (who I like) took a vague non-denial by Tim Drevno and turned it into a story suggesting that Gentry may switch positions.
That leaves us with transfer John O'Korn. I saw one or two people in isolated threads say that they heard he looks good in practice, but we hear that about hundreds of guys. He does have a year of experience starting at Houston, with promising but mixed results. But, really, we know nothing about what he will be on the field in a Michigan uniform.
There's a lot riding on this. Anyone know what to expect?
November 6th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:34 PM ^
anyone?
November 6th, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
If we have answers at S and LB next year and Lewis returns I don't want to hand the keys to a potential playoff team to a true freshman QB. UCLA was stacked pretty much everywhere but QB this year and as you said even a phenom like Josh is going to have 3-4 games he looks entirely like a freshman.
With thhe way the schedule works next year , the easy non conf, OSU losing half their D to the NFL (Lee, Bosa, Washington, et al) and their best wr and potentially rb, MSU losing Cook, Burbridge, Allen, Calhoun, most likey Conklin, PSU losing Hack, Zettel, Nassib, etc it's a year we need to make hay and we are going to be predicted (with OSU) to win the Big 10 next year in most preseason publications I believe based on what we return.
2017 we lose almost the entire 2 deep from 2015 so 2016 is a year to do damage...not rely on a true freshman. I am more for experimenting in 2017 which is probably going to be more of a 'rebuild' year.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^
If there's ever going to be a "rebuilding year" during the Harbaugh era, 2017 is it.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
Losing a alot on the back end of our defense, especially Buck through SAM. It will be hard to replace Ojemudia, RJS, Morgan, Bolden, and Ross. Basically those 5 (now 4 with injuries) are taking 90% of the snaps at those positions with Gedeon and Marshall getting some spot time.
Not to mention we are losing a very consistent safety in Wilson. I know Peppers could play safety but he is really coming on in his nickel role I'd hate to see him make that switch.
2016 could see a step back just from the schedule (away games against the rivals) and linebacker play.
November 6th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
Yep there are no guarantees - you see that in OSU offense which everyone assumed would show up and score 70 a game based on returning almost everyone from 2014. 2016 might lose a step at LB and S --- or maybe we find answers, who knows but no guarantee we get this play next year.
Our DL should be great (still lack a great natural DE) but if Lewis comes back we have 2 elite DBs - then the rest of the D has questions. And if Lewis goes pro you lose the ability to blanket half the field whichis a big plus this year.
IMO guys like Morgan and Wilson wont be appreciated until they are gone. Bolden for all the complaints is better than Gedeon according to how the coaches see it, or else Gedeon would be playing over him. And with Marshall unable to find the field despite injuries (ross played over marshall last week at BUCK), that position might be left to a total unknown like one of the two 2015 recruits who we have never seen. If Hill and Thomas dont improve maybe they are forced to put Clark back to S next year. So again no guarantees.
November 6th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
That is exactly my point. Morgan is a solid LB. Maybe not as flashy as Jake Ryan but he plays his role so solidly that last season he was siphonign some reps away from the Ryan MLB experiment. Heck this season he sees the field over Bolden a team captain when we go to the dime package. He is basically a guy who has started at LB for us since his freshman year in 2011 and will be sorely missed. But Gedeon, McCray, and Marshall haven't shown much at all this season. Could be that the 2deep is filled by seniors but I hate having that many unknowns heading into a season.
Clark at Safety will be OK so long as Stribling can handle being corner opposite Lewis. But any injuries in the secondary scare the living daylights out of me for next season.
November 6th, 2015 at 4:53 PM ^
2016 is the year. Assuming Lewis, Wormley & Butt all return (Henry worries me right now), the defensive line is going to be stacked (and with another year of Durkin coaching and Tolbert S&C). Losing our LBs and Wilson is going to hurt, but elite D-Lines gain mask those concerns to an extent. We will have an elite D-Line, a shutdown corner if JLew returns and Peppers. Given the pressure our D-Line has been getting this year, I'm not as concerned about the Buck spot (one elite D-Line recruit this year means we can potentially slot that recruit into the rotation and move Taco out to Buck, which would help). Oh, and Mone comes back.
2017 is a different story. Yes, there will be an incoming class of highly regarded recruits between now and then who could potentially step up, but playing true freshmen is not ideal. Looking ahead a majority of our current recruiting class being filled by defensive players would be helpful. We have to basically reload on all three levels of defense, especially in the secondary and on the D-Line. At this point Kinnel HAS to be good, particularly if Peppers leaves after next year. Looking ahead, we need to land 1-2 more elite DBs and 1-2 more D-lineman this cycle. Moving Wheatley to Dline and Cole to S would be "break the glass options" if need be, but the offense may have to carry the 2017 team. 2017 may be a transitional year, but after that we will be rolling ala Stanford 2010-present.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
By that definition would we say Chad Henne was a once in a generation talent? The NFL would disagree with you.
| Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | G | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *2004 | Michigan | Big Ten | FR | QB | 12 | 240 | 399 | 60.2 | 2743 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 25 | 12 | 132.6 |
EDIT** Sorry, beat to the punch. Stats for observation's sake.
November 6th, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 5:18 PM ^
I don't know why everyone is writing Malzone off. I think he has the very realistic potential to be what we hoped Rudock would be, which would be enough to put us over the edge next season. Everyone was talking about the Malzone as a low floor low cieling option this year but then has immidiately written him off once he showed he wasn't quite ready for the college game just yet.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
knows? I wouldn't completely rule out Peters. Chad Henne was good enough as a true freshman to get a mediocre Michigan team to a Rose Bowl.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
1) Chad was one of a rare breed who was ready for college ball right out of high school. He has/had a phenomenal arm.
2) Keep in mind he had a senior and Biletnikoff award winner named Braylon to throw to, among other really, really good receivers. A guy like that can make any QB look great.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
And Tate Forcier shat all over himself the second half of the 2009 season as a true freshman who early enrolled.
I can play this game too.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
and continually exhausted from all the sex he was having.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
Bravo, sir.
November 6th, 2015 at 3:42 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^
think you can use Tate Forcier as the example of a freshman who could not play effectively as a freshman. That team sucked man. That was the Michigan Fighting Brandon Grahams and nothing else. To play at the level that Forcier did for the time he did was actually rather impressive.
November 6th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^
Rich Rod during film sessions would get beside himself at Forcier continually making amateur mistakes in practice, even deep into the season.
November 6th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:24 PM ^
Yes, but I am fairly confident that Chad would have overtaken Matt at some point in the year.
November 6th, 2015 at 1:41 PM ^
Matt was a senior and eventually wound up on the Patriots' roster in their undefeated season. He was good.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Henne was the only option because Gutierrez got hurt. He also had a lot of help from Braylon.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^
clayton richard could have been a solid QB but got beat out by henne when gutierrez got hurt. richard quit the next year to focus on baseball, knowing he wouldn't play much QB at UM.
November 6th, 2015 at 1:21 PM ^
The team had plenty of All-Big Ten performers:
Hart - 1st team
Edwards - 1st team
Avant - 2nd team
Baas - 1st team/2nd team (depending on Media or coaches)
Lentz - 1st team/2nd team
Stenavich - 1st team/2nd team
Massoquoi - 1st team
Watson - 1st team/2nd team
Woodley - 2nd team
Jackson - 1st team
Shazor - 1st team
Dudley was the fullback. Breaston was another wr and returner.
November 6th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^
Henne had Mike Hart and Braylon Edwards his freshman year as a supporting cast on offense. O'Korn probably won't have two guys around him of that caliber. For another thing, I'd give O'Korn a big edge because of his prior college experience as a starter and being here for a full year learning the offense.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
You seem pessimistic on the QB situation for next year.
O'Korn had 30+ TD passes at Houston so he has some skills,
Speight has never had a chance to be more than a backup...he is a redshirt freshman with a strong arm who showed nice atlhleticism and pocket awareness once he got comfortable vs. Minn.
Gentry was highly recruited and could be a beast at QB.
Peters is coming in as one of the top pro style recruits.
Viramontes is elusive, strong and deceptively accurate. If he stays at QB he could have enormous upside (as he will at several positions).
Malzone is small and probably wont do much but at least is a game manager who is smart enough to play in a pinch.
Morris is Morris...but still can throw a ball through a brick wall.
I see plenty to work with there, especially for Harbaugh. #notworriedabouttheQB
November 6th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
but what is kind of concerning is that several of those QBs are on our current active roster and could not "out-dual" Ruddddddock for the position this year. Rudddddddock has been below average at best, and has not been seriously challenged for the job. That tells me that it is truly only O'Korn v. Peters for the job next year.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^
I don't think it's fair to call it concerning that two true freshman and one RS-freshman (who wasn't all that touted to begin with) couldn't out-duel a fifth year senior with significant Big Ten experience.
Morris not winning the job is concerning for him, and his current status probably shows that this is the end of his meaningful shot at playing time. But Malzone, Speight, and certainly Gentry should all benefit from a year in the system, and a year (or another year) in college in general. If you could magically give all those guys that year experience and go back to this past fall camp, it wouldn't be shocking to see one of them win the job.
O'Korn isn't the great hope, because I don't think he has to be. I'm confident whoever the guy is that wins the job will give us more production than we're getting this year. That still may be a year or two away at the QB position from where Harbaugh eventually wants it, but it will be better.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^
PS Grammar dick....out-duel
November 6th, 2015 at 12:28 PM ^
Outside of Shane everyone on this roster was an underclassmen competing with Jake. And if we had received 2014 Iowa Jake there would not be the complaints.
You expect a 5th year senior, 2 year starter to beat out a bunch of underclassmen. Also with his 5 INTs last year and a stout defense and special teams you want a QB who is not turnover prone if not explosive. Young guys tend to be turnover prone - as was Shane Morris.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
you would, but we got 2015 Rudock, and I don't really think it is that unreasonable for a freshman or redshirt freshman to be able to do at least what he has done. It is not common but it is not unheard of either.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^
Even if Malzone or Gentry could give the same production, getting a RS year is still the right move. I don't have a lot of faith that Speight will ever be the guy, but I'm still not going to hold him not beating out even 2015 Rudock as a RS freshman against him.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^
Rudock didn't come to Michigan to be the backup. He came to start, anyone who thought otherwise is delusional.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
For us to make a serious run at the NC. We just need to find a new Aussie punter and we're all set.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:04 PM ^
I thought 1484 was the next great hope.
/See recent thread
November 6th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
until he's out with a season ending injury. For the third time.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
Along with a slight uptick at QB, I feel this team needs a little more athleticsm at RB and LB.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
that Gentry could play QB or Tight End. Stronger, actual verbal evidence is O'Korn has looked very good on scout squad. Peters looks like a top notch prospect, and Malzone might surprise. Speight will have alot of competition. I don't see a top five preseason number, due to the questions about QB, but will certainly be top 10-15.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^
Malzone and/or Morris will probably transfer IMHO.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
Agreed. Brogan Roback needs a backup in Ypsilanti.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
Looking at MGoBlue.com's roster, O'Korn is listed at 6'4", 220 lbs, which is taller and bigger than Morris. I know collegiate measurables are usually somewhat inflated, but he's bigger/taller than I thought. For some reason I thought he was a 6', 6'1" guy.
Two more variables are Brandon Peters and the rumblings of a Taysom Hill transfer. If Hill hypothetically does end up here, we could be looking at a real battle between O'Korn, Malzone, Speight, Peters, Gentry, and Hill.
November 6th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
November 6th, 2015 at 12:07 PM ^
who knows? Maybe Speight will contend...
November 6th, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
Depends on what O'Korn we get.
He was very good for a freshman and then fell off a cliff as a SO as his lost his OC. If we get the freshman version of him plus some upside we should be happy.
I think people's assumptions about his average pass and mobility are a bit off. His yards per attempt as a freshman was only 7.0 and consider his OC went to TCU with Boykin and that offense is explosive. Then it fell to 5.5 as a SO which is "Big 10 bad". Even boring Jake has like a 6.7 ypa this year and was 7.1 at Iowa when he was better than he has been this year.
So long story short while O'Korn has more "arm talent" even in a TCU like offense at Houston his YPA in his storied freshman year was akin to Jake Iowa 2014. So he strikes me more of a "West coast offense" QB which is fine. He just needs to up his completion %.
Also there has been talk of him being very much a mobile / running QB etc. He is not generally that. He ran less than Jake did on average. Quite a bit less. Again his highlight clip will show a big run of 9-10 yds or whatnot but that is a highlight clip and not his normal MO.
I posted this about 2 weeks ago but I extrapolated his 2013 season (again he was only a freshman) and his completion % (58%) and YPA and compared it to all P5 QBs in 2014. The three guys he most mirrored in 2014 were
- Sean Mannion Oregon State
- Jacoby Brissett NC State
- Jake Rudock Iowa
And yes seriously on that last one.
Mannion was a sr so we dont have a year of growth for him, Jake regressed, and Brissett took a nice step. So if we get Jacoby Brissett 2015 people around here will be tickled.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/512191/jacoby-brissett
65% completion rate, modest 7.1 ypa, and excellent protection of ball - 13 TD, 1 INT.
In 2014 this was Brissett: 59.7%, 7.0 ypa, 23 TD, 5 INT. That was not too dissimilar from Jake in 2014 which was 61.7%, 7.1 ypa, 16 TD, 5 INT. Those 2 sort of bracket O'Korn's 2013 #s vs weaker competition in his conf then the type a P5 QB faces.
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By the way I think we cannot dismiss LB and S play next year as keys as well. Wilson is the only sure thing at S and Hill has been getting beat a lot this year when a QB is competent so we need to find as solution next year (Kinnel?) LBs also will bring questions. So the D has some questions as well.