A lot of states in the Big Ten footprint have startrd to see the number of cases reported each day on the upswing - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa. Indiana has been hit pretty hard too.
The number of cases is going up only because the number of tests is going way up. The percentage of tests coming back positive is actually going down. Look at all the numbers.
this board hates positive C-19 news. you just watch....
I don't hate positive pandemic news at all, I'm just very skeptical that the mother of all non-social distancing sports will find a way to be played if the virus is still prevalent this fall UNLESS we get a vaccine or safe and effective treatment options.
We are going to know a lot more, good or bad, in the next 30 days as the states opening back up either encounter a large second wave (would I think will happen) or new cases/deaths decline (what I hope will happen).
FWIW I think MLB is the canary in the coal mine as it relates to playing football this fall. Baseball is naturally "socially distant" as opposed to football so if they can't get started how in the hell can football?
I think this misses the point completely. It's not about positive or negative attitudes. It's that many people have differing views on the virus and the risks they are willing to take for things to "get back to normal." Our personal views don't matter in this case - but instead the views of the respective athletes and their families.
If those views reflect those of the population at large, I'd expect many scholarship athletes will choose to sit out until a vaccine is available. Then the question becomes is it worth having a season, and is it worth going through the trouble of recruiting walk-ons to fill up a roster to play a less exciting, disjointed brand of football where the main topic will remain Covid-19
my original point is that for nearly two months this board has torn into any positive C-19 news with a vigor and viciousness that was a sight to see. at a ratio of 20:1, 40:1, whatever, the positive news would be abused to the nth degree.
and i may only have a half dozen football players in my house, but if they are anything like most players, other players will want to play. maybe not 100%, but my guess is they will overwhelmingly want to play if they are given a choice.
The board is polarized...it's an internet message board after all. I don't know the ratio of positive to negative posters, but I'd assume until there is a real dent made in the spread or treatment of the virus, the negative will continue to outweigh the positive.
Regarding players wanting to play...maybe, but their parents will have a say as well. 18 -22 year olds, specifically gridiron heroes, are likely to feel invulnerable to such things. All that said, do you really think the universities take the risk of endangering the health of the student athletes? The liability they would be taking on is immeasurable.
I think the kids, most anyway, will probably want to play. But ultimately I think the insurance companies are going to make that decision.
As far as people ripping into good news, there just really hasn't been any that stands up to scientific scrutiny. Plenty of opinions, flawed studies, and wishful thinking, but not much positive data.
Bingo. The problem I have with the positive news is 99.9% of the positive news reported here and elsewhere is candidly bullshit with little or no clinical study data to support the claims. Which makes a guy like me with some (not much) clinical education extremely sceptical of it's accuracy.
At least on my Twitter feed here's how it breaks down.
Those who absolutely believe there will be football this fall:
1. Fans of football with no medical training or education
2. People who make money off of football (coaches, ADs, players, writers, etc)
Those who don't think there will be football this fall:
1. People with medical training and education
TRUST ME I WANT FOOTBALL TO PLAYED. I just don't see how it's possible without a vaccine or clinically reliable cure.
Yes - but has the negative corona news been really backed up by accurate factual information? Their models have been completely inaccurate, hospitals are doing fine, ventilators are probably not even the right treatment for this virus... it seems to be more of an inflammatory issue not a lung/O2 transfer issue.
Bottom line is none of the information we are receiving is accurate but most choose to believe the negative view. Even YouTube is pulling down any positive news or contradictory versions of what the gov't and press are feeding us.
I mainly look at the number of fatalities because of all the variables with testing. The number of daily national fatalities has been steadily oscillating between ~1500 and ~2500 for about a month. New York’s numbers have been going steadily down. The rest of the nation is seeing rising fatality numbers.
While it's true that the number of tests have increased, the number of cases reported daily is staying the same, and the number of reported deaths on a daily basis is remaining the same. When you look at other countries who were hit hard in the initial wave, their daily numbers (actual numbers not percentages) have decreased substantially.
With Spain in about a two week stretch from late March through early April, they were consistently reporting about 7500 new cases a day. With a couple exceptions over the last ten days they've have been reporting less then 2500 new cases a day. At it's peak in late March/early April, Spain was reporting around 700+ deaths a day. April 18th was the last day Spain has reported over 500 deaths in a day and over the last week they haven't had a day with more then 300 reported deaths.
In Italy at it's peak in late March, they were consistently reporting 5,000 or more new cases a day. Over the last week they haven't had a day where they've reported more then 2000 new cases. At it's peak Italy was reporting around 700 new deaths a day. April 21st was the last time Italy reported a day with more then 500 new deaths, and since then with the exception of one day, they've been reporting less then 400 new deaths a day.
In Germany at it's peak in late March/early April Germany was reporting around 6000 new cases a day. The last time Germany reported more then 2000 new cases in day was April 24th. In the last 5 days, they've only had one day where they reported more then 1000 new cases in a day. At the peak in mid April, Germany was reporting about 300 deaths a day. Since April 23, they've only had one day where they reported more then 200 deaths.
With these countries their trend line for new cases and deaths is on a steady decline. They are reporting daily numbers that are 50% or more less then what they were reporting at their peak. The US isn't reporting daily numbers that come anywhere close to being 50% less then what the US was reporting at it's peak. In fact, when you look at the daily numbers for deaths, it's hard to tell if we've even passed the peak.
Our testing is so spotty and sporadic as to be useless as a community predictor. Follow the deaths, unfortunately.
What an idiotic post. Ohio has roughly half the cases per-capita that Pennsylvania does.
Maybe OSU won't be able to play and we can finally win the Big Ten
Fine by me.
The German Bundesliga is going to give it a try, starting up in a couple of weeks. It is obviously without fans, but if they can do that in May I don't see any reason why we can't do it in September.
Comparing where Germany and South Korea currently are to where the United States is regarding testing, contact tracing, and containment of the virus is why we may not be ready by September.
Further, it's much easier to quarantine professional athletes and teams than college students - even if class is not in session.
All jokes aside, the OSU / Bama model of just football, players never see campus, online classes, and essentially setting up dorms at the athletic facilities may be the only way to pull this off....and even that's a stretch.
September may not be a problem but as we march into October and November is where the worry springs from. What would suck worse, no season or a truncated one? And with our luck with Michigan going undefeated into The Game. Since we’re all hypothesizing anyway let’s make it rosy.
There's no saying that Germany's plan is actually going to work with these games, but even so we're talking about a 15-20 teams in a geographically contained area versus a country 25x Germany's size (not even including Hawaii and Alaska) with far worse tracing capabilities.
I think college football may happen next year but my guess is it'll seem more like scrimmages and weird exhibition games than a coherent season.
If that's the case, it will be a free for all amongst players who wish to play or sit depending on how they and their respective families feel about the dangers presented by the virus.
Given all the uncertainties and unknowns about the virus, timeline to a vaccine, differing state by state/ county by county infection and hospitalization rates....this seems like a really stupid take from a football coach who should stick to football - and sad field goals.
Leaving out all my political and social views on this topic, it's absurd to be taking advice from a CFB coach on an issue that affects the health of student athletes and the greater population as a whole. It's a virus...by definition, one kid gets it and gets a false negative test, and a whole team can be exposed and potentially the conference within weeks.
Further, I'd imagine very different perspectives (as wildly different as we see in our overall population) from the parents and players about wanting to play given the risks - (which are not really defined yet). Whatever your viewpoint - ("this is a dangerous, deadly pandemic" or "come on man, we're overreacting") - there will be players and parents on both sides of the debate so long as a vaccine is not available, hence fielding a full team of scholarship players is highly unlikely, as many simply won't partake.
one kid gets it and gets a false negative test, and a whole team can be exposed and potentially the conference within weeks.
That's also true of the Flu, the common cold, and a dozen other viruses. You know what's also true of all those viruses and the China virus? They won't kill extremely healthy 18-22 year old athletes.
hence fielding a full team of scholarship players is highly unlikely, as many simply won't partake.
Everything you say just makes you sound dumber and dumber. You only really need about 30 players to play a football game. Michigan's roster including walk-ons has 140 players on it. If you really think 78% of our roster is going to opt not to play this year because they might catch a virus that has a less than 0.01% chance of killing them, you are completely detached from reality.
I think you would be better served spewing vitriol on reddit or Twitter. An entire country has been essentially shut down for 2 months. The world has been in quarantine for 2+ months. Whether or not you believe that was necessary is an opinion - this is not the purpose of the discussion.
The fact that it has occurred and there is still a genuine fear around the implications and short and long term health effects of this virus is not up for debate.
The detachment from reality is your own in that you fail to realize that your own feelings about the virus do not affect policy or outcomes. This makes you simple, narrow minded and unable to see the bigger picture - blinded by your opinion instead of assessing the situation as it stands. Again, not politics or an opinion on how to handle the virus, but an assessment of what has occurred and where things are, and how that translates to the sports world in the short term.
Football players already accept significant health risks just to play football at all. If you really think the marginal uptick in risk that the China virus poses will be enough to convince large numbers of them to stop playing, you need to get your head examined.
Logged in to down vote.
No. None of this. Moar football! Moar conference games.. regular season games.. moar conference championships (big ten should have at least two conference championship games)! And at the very least an 8 team playoff!!! Maybe 16...
The point is, it’s too early to tell. James Franklin wants to get paid, he doesn’t want to take a pay cut, he needs football. I don’t blame him but his statement is likely motivated by money and not any real science at this point.
What is the insurance rate for schools to have a football team? Given their age, I don't see a sizable increase in the insurance premium.
If congress passes a no lawsuit for COVID-19 bill then I see the games being played.
He's only saying this because over half the Big 10 won't be playing and he wants a conference ring.
Uh, James Franklin already has a conference ring. They beat Wisconsin in the 2016 championship game.
I mean, it's sort of a dumb statement but I also don't know why anyone really is looking to college football coaches to have some great insight into how to respond to a pandemic. James Franklin, a man paid millions to coach college football, is of course going to be a fan of doing so if he's reasonably covered from liability by his employer/state. None of that surprises me.
Would you expect any less from a plastic headed dufus like Franklin?
I think such a scenario would just invite chaos. If conferences are playing at different times and and not all teams are playing what will that do for polls? I don't think they would be worth .02 at all as there is no way to say who the best teams are if not everyone is playing and would the polls be more influences by conferences that start early or ones that end later?