Huge duals meet this weekend #3 Michigan vs #1 Penn State
This is a huge weekend for the wrestling team this weekend as #3 Michigan hosts #1 Penn State. Michigan does have a punchers chance in this matchup, but will need some key upsets to accomplish this. Penn State has four #1 ranked and one #2 ranked wrestlers to Michigan's one #1 and one #2. Michigan has 8 top 10 wrestlers to 7 for Penn State, but 5 of those face higher ranked opponents.
The keys to me are going to be if Stevan Micic can upset Nick Lee and if Myles Amine can defeat Aaron Brooks. Unfortunately, I think still adjusting from international wrestling is going to cost Micic in his matchup with Lee, even though I think by the Big10 tournament, Micic could be fully adjusted back to college wrestling. This match in the tournament could be completely different by then. The really huge matchup is going to be #2 Amine vs #1 Brooks. This will be a battle of Amine's aggressive attacking vs Brooks defense. Amine is great at getting to his opponents' legs and scoring, while Brooks is amazing at stopping attacks and countering them. This will be a strength vs strength match. Will Amine be error free in his shots? If not, Brooks will make him pay. The last key to this matchup in my opinion will be whether how well Parrish does against Kerkvliet. They've each beaten each other in the past, but Parrish is the better wrestler.
For Michigan to win, they will need either Micic or Amine to pull off a close match and for Parrish to find a way to get a fall since I think Penn State will have enough major victories that Michigan will still lose even with a 5-5 match record. Parrish does have a major decision against Kerkvliet in the past, but I think that would at best lead to a tie if one of Micic or Amine win. Of course, if all 3 wrestlers win, Michigan wins the match and that is possibility.
This will be a great night of wrestling with possibly the best individual match of the season between Amine and Brooks.
My call: Penn State 20 - Michigan 16 (6 matches to 4).
January 19th, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
Wrestling is nuts. The #1 guys are a heavy favorites over the... #2 ranked guys. Seems upsets just don't happen much even among the top 2-4 wrestlers.
Also, posbang TF outta the OP for an actual, informative and relevant post.
January 19th, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^
They happen often come the tournaments. However, these guys have wrestled each other their whole life, so we have a really good idea who is better.
January 21st, 2022 at 6:56 AM ^
Agreed my son is a wrestler(I never did, wish I had now) and it’s crazy how between middle school and his club team how I’m beginning to become really familiar with the same kids over and over. If nothing else it’s given my son a goal to try to beat this one kid who keeps turning him into a pretzel by the end of the season(don’t think he’s going to get there but at least he’s gone from being pinned in the first round to being pinned in the third, my sons a good wrestler but this other kid is another level). I imagine that same sense of deja by and “This guy again?” Pervades in college wrestling to an even greater extent.
January 19th, 2022 at 8:50 PM ^
Thanks for the compliment. I've been in combat sports my whole life from wrestling, to boxing, to MMA, to BJJ. My first love will always be wrestling. One of my best friends is a high school coach and we're contemplating heading up for the NCAA's this year.
January 19th, 2022 at 11:29 PM ^
It's like tennis but probably even more chalky. There's just almost no variability. If you're better, you will win with near certainty over your opponent.
January 19th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
Go Blue!
January 19th, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
I saw dual meat and thought it was another pizza thread.
January 19th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
I thought it might be porn
January 19th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
Came for the dual meat, stayed for the porn
January 19th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^
This is the quality dialogue I have come to expect on MGBLOG well done gents.
January 19th, 2022 at 8:13 PM ^
My predictions:
- 125 Suriano major dec. Hildebrandt M 4-0
- 133 RBY dec. Ragusin M 4-3
- 141 Lee dec. Micic PSU 6-4
- 149 Bartlett dec. Storr/Mattin PSU 9-4
- 157 Lewan dec. Negron/? PSU 9-7
- 165 C. Amine dec. Berge M 10-9
- 174 Starocci dec. Massa PSU 12-10
- 184 M. Amine dec. Brooks M 13-12
- 197 Dean dec. Brucki PSU 15-13
- Hwt Parris dec. Kirkvliet M 16-15
Lewan and C. Amine need to win their matches, which they should based on track record. But PSU guys are always tough so wouldn't be shocked to see either of them lose.
Critical for Ragusin to avoid a major decision loss. I know he was majored against ASU but I think he keeps it to a regular decision here.
Suriano has looked fantastic so far. Hildebrandt had to be talked back into wrestling after "retiring"; I think Suriano takes it to him.
M. Amine gets a huge win here in front of the home crowd in another OT match. I'm more worried about the result between these two if/when they meet at NCAAs. PSU guys always seem to rise to the moment in March, especially on Saturday night.
Of course, I would not be at all surprised if several wrestlers we expect to see from either team end up not wrestling. That's one of my frustrations with NCAA wrestling in the dual meet season.
Don't forget that M takes on Rutgers on Sunday afternoon at home as well. Hopefully we get to see Micic vs. Rivera and M. Amine vs. Poznanski in that dual.
Go Blue!
January 19th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
I hate that they hold wreslters back in the dual season too, but it happens in High School too. We once had a duals where our 5th ranked 189lbs was to face the 3rd ranked one, but instead put me in to face him since it wouldn't hurt my rankings much if I lost. Even though I was ranked 6th, I walked at 167 and and 189 is a huge jump. I lost, but at least it was only 8-3.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^
OP - thanks for posting and drumming up some midweek interest in this matchup!
On to Stirred's predictions - I've got M 20-13 - difference in my outlook:
- I think RBY puts a major up
- M wins 141/149
- PSU wins 165/184
- M wins 197
Would love to see an unexpected bonus point(s) from someone like Lewan
January 19th, 2022 at 9:16 PM ^
I was very close to the same score prediction.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:13 PM ^
Sometimes the opposite happens, like when Louden Swain dropped from 190 down to 168 to face Shute. Crazy considering what Shute's Dad was well known to use a live wire for
January 20th, 2022 at 6:48 AM ^
I hated duals because of this. Had a team sit their guy in my weight class and sent a freshman out there for me to pin in about 11 seconds. They didn't even bump him up to wrestle the next weight up, just sat him and ate two pinfall losses so their one decent guy didn't get beat. He wasn't even that good, had around a dozen losses by midseason.
January 21st, 2022 at 6:57 AM ^
You were 167 and they wrestled you at 189? Yikes!
January 20th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
A couple things I read. Lee is out against MSU on Sunday per PSU. He also didn't wrestle last weekend. I would assume if PSU has already said he's out Sunday, he's out for Friday. If so Micic wins there.
Also saw someone say 149 was Mattin's now. Storr got hurt in Vegas and hasn't been back out. Is he done? Team hasn't said that. Personally I like Storr a lot and he always wrestles tough guys hard, but losses by a few points. I think he can beat Bartlett if he goes and is ready, but I don't think we'll see him. If Mattin is in there, and wrestles like he did last weekend, he'll be right there against Bartlett, who is nowhere close Sasso.
Haven't heard anything about Cam. He was dressed two weeks ago when they forfeited his match at Pitt. Berge didn't look the greatest last weekend. If they go, I believe Cam wins. If not, PSU has the weight. I can't believe that Michigan hasn't got any depth at 157 or 165. It's Lewan and Amine and no one else on the roster. Huge need in recruiting.
I am hesitant to pick Starocci over Massa. They've only wrestled once and Massa tried a dumb move and got beat in OT. Massa won the Cleveland Open and has majored the duals. He will give Starocci fits. Wouldn't surprised me if he pulls the upset. He's looking great.
Totally think Myles can beat Brooks. Should be an excellent match. 1-2 points win either way.
last time Parris wrestled Kirkvliet, he got smoked in freestyle. Parris is bigger and looks stronger than Kirk. Think Parris wins but could be close like 184.
I think it will be a 6-4 win in matches. Maybe even 5-5. Some guys need to step up. If they do, UM wins by 1-2 points. If not, will be a 1-4 point loss. Will love it if it comes down to HWT.
Go Blue!
January 20th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
I like Massa but when they wrestled last year Massa had already hit his ceiling as a college wrestler and it still wasn't enough to beat a freshman Starocci. Yes, very close OT match but Starocci seemed to gain confidence from that win and went on to win a NCAA title. My guess is with an offseason of improvement Starocci is wrestling on a higher level than Massa this season. I think this match is something like 8-3 Starocci with Massa only getting escape points.
Re: Parris, the last time they wrestled in freestyle was at the Olympic trials where Parris lost on criteria in a 4-4 match. Parris won by MD over Kirkvliet at the Big 10 meet last year. I like Mason to win a comfortable decision.
January 21st, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
Yes, I thought freestyle match was a lot worse and recently saw it was 4-4. So that's my bad.
As for Massa, I'm not so sure about your logic. Starocci certainly got better but so has Massa. His freestyle season was excellent. Beating Mekhi Lewis, Hayden Hidlay, and Evan Wick. Massa has the goods to beat anyone. It's about him getting to his shots and being in very good shape. Be interesting to see how he finishing this thing out. Definitely should have been a 4x AA. Blood round loss and a loss on the backside to a guy that went on to AA are what did it. Hope he gets Top 4 again.
January 19th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
Why did Amine change weight classes?
January 19th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^
I think part of that was to make room for Cam and get the best guys on the lineup.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^
I read that Amine wrestled at 197 last year because he wanted to compete last season as close to his Olympic weight of 86kg (190lbs) as possible. He felt better about cutting down a bit to 86kg after the college season ended than going 184lbs in college and having to build back up to a full 86kg. So he likely sacrificed a chance for an NCAA title last year (competing undersized at 197) to be at full strength for an Olympic run. Seems like he made the right call.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:54 PM ^
I definitely agree it was the right call.
January 20th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
He was too small for 197 last year. Every wrestler cuts because they're bigger than the weight they wrestle. Myles never did and you could tell. Talent led the way to third, but in the NCAA semi, he got pushed around. He'll do better here.
I also think 141 is too big for Micic right now. He hasn't looked like our Micic. He's smaller than the other 141s and is having trouble finishing takedowns. Wish he had bulked up a bit more. Might hold him back some.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:02 PM ^
Seems like some of these guys have been around for 7- 8 years .
January 19th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
Well, Micic did start in the 2015 - 2016 season, but took an Olympic redshirt, then he took another one in 2019 - 2020 and took an injury redshirt last year, so he has been involved with the program for a long time. He's currently in graduate school.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
My prediction: none of the roster is eating pizza until late March.
January 20th, 2022 at 6:49 AM ^
You'd be surprised.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
I think wrestling and basketball should be switched to the winter Olympics. Sunshine has no business in the life of a competitive wrestler, for example.
Anyway, in a match like this, M will need to minimize most/all of its losses and maximize it's wins. It's possible if just a few things fall the right way. Go Blue
January 19th, 2022 at 9:30 PM ^
I was a wrestler but don’t watch a whole lot of wrestling. (Don’t have cable.) I was surprised a few years ago to find out that 2000s and 2010s PSU = 80s and 90s Iowa.
Excited that Michigan is on the upswing. I’d love it if 2020s Michigan was the new dynasty.
January 19th, 2022 at 9:39 PM ^
Having a legendary wrestler like Sanderson as your head coach will do that for you.
January 19th, 2022 at 10:02 PM ^
Top wrestlers are going to flock to him more and more.
January 20th, 2022 at 6:12 AM ^
I’m ashamed to admit that I didn’t know about Sanderson. He’s basically Dan Gable but better. (Never lost in college and Olympic Gold.). Wow.
January 19th, 2022 at 10:01 PM ^
I was given the contact information for Coach Bahr in the 90's about maybe walking on, but I did not have the academics to get accepted. Michigan will always be my team, but being a wrestler in the 90's, my favorite wrestlers of all time were the Brands brothers of Iowa. I loved hearing how they were ultra-competitive with each other their whole lives. I tried to model my style off of theirs. I watched Iowa wrestling anytime it was on ESPN back in the day.
January 20th, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
I'd recommend listening to the most recent episode of the "Wrestling Saved My Life" podcast, which features an interview with Tom Brands. Lots of good stories and gives you a great feel for Brands' intensity as a coach. Every time I listen to Brands I can't help but draw parallels between him and Harbaugh. Both are a bit quirky in their communication style and both have a great passion for their respective sports.
January 20th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
I do think the intensity is what makes them seem quirky. It's hard to turn it off and most people are in a constant state of complacency.
January 19th, 2022 at 10:07 PM ^
I am sorry but I had to down vote for the pure reason that you typed "duals meet". It is a dual meet. Sorry as a HS coach, I just can't get over the poor use of verbiage around wrestling. Now let's get to the main topic.
This match has the potential to be crazy. However, there have been a few guys out for both teams. Nick Lee has been dealing with sickness (covid related is the rumor) and Berge may or may not wrestle, since he just got back to competition training. For Michigan, Storr at 149 and Amine at 165 have been out for various injuries. I don't believe Michigan will hold anyone out. A lot of their guys are either grinders or need matches for qualification purposes for Nationals. Most of them started wrestling in the 2nd semester only. There hasn't been a probable starter line-up posted and I don't think there will until that night.
Here is my breakdown by weight class:
125 - Suriano vs. Hildebrant - Hildebrant took 4th in a watered down weight class last year. After watching Suriano against OSU last week, I think he will push hard for the major and get it. His gas tank is just incredible. The biggest issue is that Suriano is not great at turning people on top.
4-0 Mich
133 - Ragusin vs. RBY - RBY is a slicker version of McGee. However, Ragusin was pushing hard in that match and got turned to break it open. I see him being significantly more conservative to keep it close. RBY by decision.
4-3 Mich
141- Micic vs. Lee (or back-up) - This match has the chance to be unbelievable. If it is actually Lee wrestling, this will be a huge test to see where Micic is at up a weight. So far he has not looked as dominant as he has in the past. Lee is an absolute monster with a crazy high pace. If it is Lee (even though I am a huge homer) Lee will take this by decision. If it is any PSU back-up, I will go major but it could easily be a techfall.
4-6 PSU - I say Lee wrestles
149 - Storr/Mattin vs Bartlett - Bartlett was a big time blue chip recruit coming out of HS and has been good but not the instant AA or national title contender that some thought he might be. I really liked what I saw from Mattin verse Sasso. I am going out on a limb and hope Mattin steps on. If it's Mattin, I am calling the upset. If it is Storr then I say Beau wins a very close one for PSU.
7-6 Mich - Mattin wrestles
157 - Lewan vs. Negron (Berge if he can get down this quickly) - I will say it is Negron. Either way I think Lewan wins a close one because well that is all Lewan does. Lewan has tools to open up his offense and be better but has yet to consistently show that. He is hard to predict wins for in big matches because of how close they all are but I am going to do it.
10 - 6 Mich
165 - Amine/(back-up) vs. Edsall/Berge - Berge wrestled 165 for them in their last match but I think we see him down sooner than later and it could be Friday. I am not sure Amine is healthy. If he isn't, this BADDDD for Michigan. Pat Nolan is not a starter at 149 or 157 and he is up at least 1 weight class filling in here. Amine wins it if he wrestles.
13-6 Mich - with Amine
10 - 11 - w/o Amine
174 - Massa vs. Starocci - Massa is a gamer and will battle like crazy but Starocci has a little too much in the toolbox. They wrestled an extremely close match last week (going into OT). I think this will be a similar outcome this year.
13 - 9 Mich - with Amine @ 165
10 - 14 - w/o Amine
184 - Amine vs. Brooks - Sometimes I think people forget how good Amine is. He has lost to very few individuals in folkstyle over the last few years. I think people saw last year when he was up at 197 (a HUGE bump up in weight) and think he has lost some folkstyle ability because he trains mostly in freestyle. I am going a homer pick but one because Amine just is a winner. He suprises people all the time with how successful he is.
16 - 9 Mich - w/ Amine @165
13 - 14 - w/o Amine
197 - Brucki vs Dean - Immovable object vs. Indestructible force. I say Dean in an absolute slugfest but I think Brucki makes him earn every second of this match and no one wants to wrestle Brucki at nationals. He is an absolute tank and brings it for all 7 minutes. Later in tournaments, wrestlers bodies will not want that pressure for 7 minutes.
16 - 9 - w/ Amine @165
13 - 17 - w/o Amine
HWT - Parris vs. Kerkvliet - Kerkvliet is very talented especially on his feet. He still struggles underneath bigger heavy weights. Parris needs big points and gets them. BOLD PREDICTION. Fall for Parris!!
22 - 9 w/ Amine
19 - 17 - w/o Amine (more likely 16 - 17 or 17 -17 and going to criteria)
This is a very maize and blue tinted prediction. If you haven't watch a dual before. Tune in to this one!
January 19th, 2022 at 10:17 PM ^
I'm giving you an upvote anyway for great detail of matches. I've been saying duals since I was a kid, so at this point, it's here to stay, haha.
January 19th, 2022 at 10:09 PM ^
It’s absolutely crazy how much elite world class talent will be in Crisler Friday night.
January 20th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
Can't take this analysis seriously if you don't know the difference between Parris and Parrish
January 20th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
I did it a few different times. I can only say it was my spell check. I will have to edit and fix it, haha.
January 21st, 2022 at 3:04 PM ^
Then take my analysis. Either way it will be amazing. Projected line-ups came out and it looks like everyone is back for both line-ups that will be competing in March except Mattin for Michigan and Berge for PSU (well at least at 157). I am not sure if Mattin won't end up being the guy when it is all said and done but this weekend will be a big test for him both tonight and Sunday.
January 21st, 2022 at 3:04 PM ^
Then take my analysis. Either way it will be amazing. Projected line-ups came out and it looks like everyone is back for both line-ups that will be competing in March except Mattin for Michigan and Berge for PSU (well at least at 157). I am not sure if Mattin won't end up being the guy when it is all said and done but this weekend will be a big test for him both tonight and Sunday.
January 20th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
Rugters, after giving PSU a hard-fought match, comes in to AA on Sunday, as well.
January 21st, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
Which, ummmm, after this one isn't exactly encouraging.
January 22nd, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^
By "this one" I assume you mean the loss to PSU? If so, there is absolutely nothing to take from the dual loss that applies to any other college team (other than Iowa). Regardless, Michigan will likely beat Rutgers with a similar score to how we lost to PSU, i.e. UM probably wins 8 of 10 tomorrow. Remember that Michigan went to Columbus just last weekend and beat the #6 OSU team by a large margin.
PSU is just dominant and they were able to win close matches against all of our best guys (Massa, Amine, Brucki, Parris). It's not a surprise that Michigan lost any of those four matches based on rankings and past results. Biggest surprise would have been the Parris loss (mostly the 3-1 takedown disparity) but even that was to a guy who was the #1 overall recruit just a few years ago. So nothing to be down about the team after last night's performance. Still a team that should finish top 4 at NCAAs and bring home a team trophy. Good experience to wrestle the PSU guys before March and have things to work towards for potential rematches.