How realistic are Michigan's BCS chances?
So I know this is really premature, and Michigan would have to win out to even be considered. The most important thing is winning the rest of the games, beating OSU and Nebraska.
HOWEVA, lets assume we win out. How realisitc are our BCS chances? Odds are MSU wins the Leaders division, and at this point Wisky controls their own destiny, and I expect them to win out and have a rematch vs MSU in the championship game. I would bet on Wisky winning then as well. MSU would then have a 3rd loss, and I think if we win out we would jump them in the standings.
There are 4 at-large bids. 1 will go to an SEC team. None will go to a Big East team. That leaves, B1G, ACC, BIG 12, PAC-12, and non AQ.
Houston will probably get a bid, they're ranked 11th and have 6-4 SMU and 7-3 Tulsa left, both of whom they should beat.
From the PAC-12 the only teams are Oregon and Stanford. If Oregon wins, both teams will have 1 loss, and Oregon would control their own destiny. At this point, Stanford probably gets an AL bid, and there are 2 PAC-12 teams. If Stanford wins, they clinch the North and get a bid. Oregon would have 2 loses at this point and be out of the championship game. They still would have to play USC as well. If they get passed USC, they should get an AL berth. (Obviously, this is also contingent on whichever team makes the championship game winning as well.)
From the ACC, Clemson is already in their championship game, and Va Tech is the favorite to make it as well. This can be kind of tricky to predict. If Virginia makes the championship game, Michigan should hope Clemson wins so Virginia doesn't steal a spot and potentially let Clemson or Va Tech get an at large. If Va Tech wins out and the two play each other, does the loser get an at large berth? I personally think if Clemson loses, they'd have a better shot at an AL than if Va Tech lost. Best case scenario for Mich though is Clemson losing to South Carolina to end the season and then losing to Va Tech in the championship.
From the BIG 12, the only two teams with a chance are OSU and OU and it comes down to Bedlam. If OU wins, both teams probably get in. If OSU wins, they're probably in the NC game, and OU probably still gets an AL berth.
From the B1G, I briefly went over this earlier, but the championship will probably be MSU vs the winner of Wisky vs PSU. Once again, I think Wisky will win that, giving PSU their third loss. I think that would knock them out of an AL berth. Then from the leaders, Nebraska would be out with their 3rd loss (assuming we beat them), leaving us with two losses. Then I would think Wisky would beat MSU in the championship game, but even if MSU wins, I would think the loser with 3 loses would be out of consideration.
Yes, I know this is long, complicated, convaluted, and doesn't matter if we don't win out. But assuming we do. What do you think Michigan's chances are for an AL berth? After going through all of this, I still don't think we have amazing chances, but better than I originally did. Of the three non-SEC spots, I think at this point Houston, a PAC-12, and a BIG-12 teams are the front runners. But if one of those three were to stumble, I think we'd be next in line. Agree? Disagree?
November 12th, 2011 at 7:59 PM ^
There will be one team from the Big 10 and that will be the winner of the championship game. We would need to win our last two and have State lose their last two just to get into the championship game which we would need to win.
November 12th, 2011 at 9:34 PM ^
The Big Ten has had a second at large team every year since 2005, and there has been some pretty bad ones, including a 3 loss 13th ranked Illinois team in '07. Adding the 5th BCS game virtually guranteed B1G & SEC would get a 2nd team except in rare circumstances.
November 13th, 2011 at 12:04 AM ^
There was no non-auto teams at-large births in 2005. In the history of the BCS only one time has a non-auto qualified team won an at-large from outside the B1G, SEC or ND and that was in 2000-01 with a 10-1 Oregon State team. Combined (ND, SEC, B1G) non-AQ at-large births vs. other conferences its like 16-1. Plus you add the fact that in this hypothetical world we just beat Nebraska and OSU on national TV two weeks in a row plus its Michigan fergodsakes and I really like chances of getting an invite over Standford in particular.
November 12th, 2011 at 10:04 PM ^
I dunno though, TCU just freed up a spot for everybody, who else would get it? Maybe ACC, not the Big East. At which point it would be between 2 loss Michigan and a combo of Stanford, Oregon, OSU, and OU
Edit: Nevermind I totally forgot about Houston
November 12th, 2011 at 7:59 PM ^
If we win out, we would
A) be 10-2, with 3 quality wins (ND, NEB, OSU), and
B) probably be #2 in the B1G in overall record
So I would say pretty good. The B1G might not send 2 to the BSC, but if it does we would probably get the second spot. Bowls usually like the best non championship game team over the loser of the championship game, too.
November 12th, 2011 at 9:21 PM ^
Beating OSU won't qualify as a quality win this season (God, it feels good to type that!).
Note to the OP: MSU, Nebraska and UM are in the Legends division not the Leaders. Simple way to remember: UM's slogan is "The Leaders and Best" so we are, quite naturally, in the Legends division.
November 12th, 2011 at 10:30 PM ^
I meant to neg you. Beating Ohio always qualifies as a quality win. NO INDICATING CONTRAST ABOUT IT
November 12th, 2011 at 10:36 PM ^
I always want to kill Ohio, but whether they count as a good win or not has nothing to do with us or our rivalry. Do you really think if OSU was making a presentation to the Fiesta Bowl in 2008 they would list "quality teams we beat: Michigan"?
They're a hated rival, that doesn't make them a quality win.
November 13th, 2011 at 2:13 AM ^
Wouldn't it have been hilarious if, at the debate the other night, Rick Perry had said, "Opps"?
November 12th, 2011 at 8:00 PM ^
Though we haven't looked like a BCS team, I would say if we win out our chances are 100%. Boise lost, and when it comes down to it, bowl organizers pick a team that travels well and will make them money (us) over a one-loss or two-loss team who won't
November 12th, 2011 at 8:05 PM ^
and there is a huge pent-up demand from the Michigan fan base for a BCS bowl game.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:51 PM ^
Lose even one more game and there isn't a chance.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:00 PM ^
not going to happen 5% if they win the last 2
November 12th, 2011 at 8:00 PM ^
There is a nonzero chance of a BCS berth. But lets get to 10 wins before we even talk about it.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:31 PM ^
As an a less than 5% chance. Shoot, less than 1% chance. Insert Dumb and Dumber quote. I mean, yeah, it's possible...but a LOT of stuff would have to happen. And I'm not banking on any of that.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:33 PM ^
A lot of stuff like Michigan winning their next two? What else would need to happen? Other than possibly OSU beating Oklahoma (which they're favored to do).
November 12th, 2011 at 8:36 PM ^
I don't know about Oklahoma/Ok State. I feel like Ok State has a low enough profile that one loss might eliminate them from a BCS bid whereas Oklahoma might make it if they lose to Ok State.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:38 PM ^
True, I posted that thinking about a two-loss Oklahoma vs. a two-loss Michigan. We get in 99/100 on that, IMO.
I hadn't even considered OSU getting left out.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:48 PM ^
I really don't know about it either way. I know Stanford and Oregon have a great shot. The Arkansas/LSU/Alabama/Georgia group will have to seriously bone something up to not get two teams in. Houston or Boise probably get in. Oklahoma and Ok State have a great shot. No way two ACC teams get in and the Big East might sell their BCS bid for a bag of Tostitos and a guarantee that they won't have to pay for $5 million worth of tickets.
If you add those chances up and combine them with Michigan's drawing power, it becomes really unlikely Michigan isn't asked to a game at 10-2.
November 12th, 2011 at 9:33 PM ^
You're insane if you think the #2 team in the country, with the #2 offense in the country, losing in the last week of the season to a top 5 team gets passed by a middle of the pack B1G team.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:58 PM ^
enough coach talk already. we're not the team, we come here so we CAN talk about it. aside from that, you just talked about it. can everyone stop acting like they're the coach. jeez that's annoying.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:00 PM ^
still low
November 12th, 2011 at 8:01 PM ^
If we don't play in B1G title game, we can't lose it, so we'd definitely be in, though as an at-large.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:03 PM ^
The SEC is loaded. Alabama and LSU are probably locks for BCS Bowls. I'd say Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas would also have a better chance of making it to a BCS game than a 10-2 Michigan team. If more than 3 SEC teams are allowed in BCS games, it would be tough to see Michigan in there.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:06 PM ^
My understanding was only 2 from a conference can make it
November 12th, 2011 at 8:06 PM ^
Only two teams can go from a conference.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:07 PM ^
SEC is good
but even they have to adhere to the two-teams-per-conference limit
November 12th, 2011 at 8:07 PM ^
they are limited to 2
November 12th, 2011 at 8:05 PM ^
No I'd love to go to a BCS game, but the Big Ten will get 1 bid and Michigan would go to the Capital One Bowl if they win out.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:05 PM ^
fergodsake just beat Ohio
November 12th, 2011 at 8:07 PM ^
This year they ARE our BCS game.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^
Amen.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:06 PM ^
Loser of tonight's game, Houston, Oklahoma, and Alabama are your at large bids.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:21 PM ^
I'm inclined to agree, but if Stanford beats Oregon tonight, the ducks only have one impressive victory (Arizona St.) and two losses. They might snag a BCS bid...but maybe not.
Also, they'd still have to beat USC next week.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:28 PM ^
with the 112th ranked SOS (#21 in the predictor)
SMU was #45 with the 72nd ranked schedule (#57 in the predictor)
Tulsa was #22 w/ the 33rd ranked schedule (#38 in the predictor)
Houston doesn't have it wrapped up yet. But it looks like we'll need Boise to fall below #16, as it doesn't seem as if the Big East will get a team up to #16.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:10 PM ^
Missouri beat Kansas in the regular season. Then Missouri lost in the Big XII title game and Kansas ended up going to the Orange Bowl with a 10-2 record. So it's possible.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:14 PM ^
The Big 12 gets both Oklahoma and Ok. State. The Pac-12 gets Oregon and Stanford. The SEC gets LSU and Alabama. B1G, Big East, ACC get conference champs. The last at-large spot will go to Houston, or the loser of the ACC championship game if both Va Tech and Clemson get there. The Sugar Bowl gets the last pick, so it's all about who they want the most.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:47 PM ^
November 12th, 2011 at 8:17 PM ^
I believe Michigan has a 100% chance if they win their last two games. 0% if they lose one.
That said, I can't think of any team that should end up in the BCS that I'd be comfortable with Michigan playing. Maybe Houston. I don't know if Michigan can hang with the scoring machines out West and they wouldn't score against Alabama/LSU.
Michigan just isn't an elite team yet.
November 12th, 2011 at 11:49 PM ^
The Big East. I think Michigan could win that game; but how likely is it that we would play them though?
November 12th, 2011 at 8:19 PM ^
Northwestern. Northwestern has lost a few headscratchers this year but they've won a few too. They always put up at least 4 scores so I think the last game at home against sparty will be something of a shootout and they'll be playing with momentum after a likely 5th straight win so I think they can make a game of it and help sparty lay an egg. If we win out and Sparty loses to Northwestern (not too much of a stretch) then our chances go way up.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:26 PM ^
Doesn't matter if Sparty loses again. Someone will lose the Big 10 title game. That team won't go to the BCS with 3 losses (minimum). A 10-win Michigan team with wins over Nebraska and OSU will get to a BCS game. They're too attractive from a bowl organizer standpoint. The official Big 10 runner up will end up in the Citrus Bowl.
November 13th, 2011 at 1:13 AM ^
a 1 loss Alabama who doesn't play in the SEC Championship, next to a 2 loss Arkansas with losses only to #2 Alabama and #1 LSU, and a top 10 2-loss South Carolina if they beat Clemson while we're a (maybe) 15th ranked 3rd place B1G school after winning out. I know we're a big revenue generator and that may trump all, but it still seems like a longshot to justify putting us ahead of a possible 3 top 10 schools with equal wins and better quality opponents in 2 or fewer losses. If we make it to and through the B1G Championship I would definitely agree.
November 13th, 2011 at 2:22 AM ^
How does it help Michigan get a BCS spot if MSU loses to Northwestern?
November 12th, 2011 at 8:25 PM ^
we have a good chance of making it. I'll also be happy with the Capital One bowl though.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:26 PM ^
....I would think that, considering conference records as well, our chances are not all that good. We would need some improbable collapses to have a shot, and we face one of the teams that would require an improbable collapse.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:29 PM ^
Very, very small.
November 12th, 2011 at 8:49 PM ^
Outside of the auto-bids, the BCS is largely able to pick whomever they want for the bowls. So if UM is anywhere close to the required rankings - top 14 I think in the BCS - they'll definitely be considered. UM travels well, and there are slim pickings beyond the auto-bids; I only see Oregon/Stanford loser, maybe Texas, and that's it.
Of course, win 2 more games and then let's see what happens.
November 12th, 2011 at 11:56 PM ^
Texas has 3 losses after today to Missouri; plus they have to play a still dangerous Kansas State team, Baylor, and go to College Station, no way they're getting through all that or with their 3 losses.
What I think it would come down to is 10-2 Michigan against a 11-1 OSU or a 10-2 OU. I think the SEC and PAC have locked down 2 bids, so all that's left is how OSU/OU finish.
November 12th, 2011 at 9:10 PM ^
I disagree with anyone that thinks we're a lock if we win out. There should be plenty of respectable 1 loss teams to fill it, and if there aren't the odds of UM being the best of the 2 loss teams aren't great. The chanes are less than 10% i we win out. If we don't win out, it obviously drops to basically 0%.
With that said, it's beatiful to know there are 3 games left (counting bowl) and the team has already exceeded their win total from last year, under a brand new coach bringing in a likely top 5 recruiting class.