How Mike Smith compares to B1G PG leaders
I hear a lot of comments about "too many turnovers" and doubts about his 3 point shooting this year. Thought it would be interesting to compare him with the presumed best of the B1G point guards statistically:
Name Assists Turnovers 3pt %
Carr 77 30 .363
Dosunumu 63 41 .422
Curbelo 60 33 .200
Bohanon 64 20 .396
Trice 46 18 .438
Davison 32 7 .412
Brooks 40 19 .372
Smith 59 29 .462
Just bothers me to hear a lot of comments about too many turnovers when his ratios of Assists to turnovers is 3 to 2 better than Brooks (who gets no such remarks) and stands up very well across the best of the conference.
January 14th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
I am trying to argue that he is a great balance between a good outside shooter (that gives us the Miami Heat spacing that Howard seeks) and a good penetrator/passer when required.
Nobody is saying otherwise. They are merely pointing out that, based on his usage and turnover rates, he is more TO prone than other PGs in the Big Ten based on a different view of the data which you are apparently unwilling to try to understand.
For the record, here is a nice page which outlines the calculations for several tempo free stats.
https://www.sactownroyalty.com/pages/advanced-statistics-calculator
You can see that TO rate is actually based on the relationship between TOs with FGA and FTA. Why? Because that tells you your efficiency in terms of the outcome of your possessions.
You'll also see how they calculate Assist rate, which takes into account his minutes, FGs, and team minutes and FGs.
EDIT: You can actually see that Simpson's tempo-free TO rate was at 21.1 last season. Although it was slightly higher on a per minute or per game basis than Mike Smith, you also have to then consider that Simpson was much more active offensively than Smith in the same amount of time on the court. In short, he had the ball in his hands more than Smith. This is borne out by the fact that Simpson had a greater number of FGA (12.6 vs 8.2) and FTA (3.7 vs 2.8) per 40 minutes than Smith. This is reflected in the respective Usage percentages (23.4 for Simpson, 16.8 for Smith).
Part of that is scheme. Michigan last season put the ball through a senior Simpson's hands much more than this team does through Smith. Just because Smith is on the floor doesn't mean he is used in the same way or volume that Simpson was. Based on their respective usages in their offenses, Smith is, indeed, more TO prone than Simpson when he actually has the ball in his hands.
This is not a knock on Smith saying that he obviously sucks or can't hack it in the Big Ten. You're inferring a sentiment nobody has argued.
January 14th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^
Please see my full response farther down as I went over to UMHoops and got the scoop on how the TOR is calculated in a world where we actually do not keep track of on-ball time for players in college games.
In a nut shell, they use shots taken (FG or FT) as a pseudo measure for time on ball. This would explain why a guy like a big like Trevion Williams might have a great TOR if he is a high volume shooter on his time on court. The same goes for Zavier taking 50% more shots than Mike Smith....that turns out to greatly improve your TOR in the world of advance statistics.
January 14th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Mike Smith is shaping up to be one of the best low major to P5 success stories. There are people complaining about him?
Sure it would be nice if he cut out a TO or two per game but this is all very much still coming together.
January 14th, 2021 at 10:30 AM ^
Here's a suggestion. Stop listening to the talking heads! Joke aside, there is one thing those stats DO NOT point out. Chemistry. It is truly amazing to see the team chemistry as many of the kids on the team haven't played with each before.
As I have posted on here before, this team is shocking the world and, I hope, will continue to shock the world by claiming the National Title and on national TV add that it wouldn't have happened if they didn't have the best darn coach in college basketball, JUWAN HOWARD.
One other point, what is the break down of turn overs? Did he turn the ball over a lot in the first few games and then did it decrease? What's the trend if there is one?
January 14th, 2021 at 10:36 AM ^
"He can dish it out but can he take it?"
Yes. Dish assists, and take shots.
January 14th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
I don’t think it is that he has a lot of turnovers, its just the turnovers he has are easily avoidable. For example driving the lane and leaving your feet with no where to pass. That is something I wouldn’t expect from a senior.
January 14th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
...BucksSuck thanks for your adding context to this discussion. If you were sitting next to Mike Smith on the bench and had your shot at explaining the issue to him...how would you explain how his 2.7 turnovers per game differed from the 3.2 turnovers per game from Zavier. Did Zavier not leave his feet with no where to pass? How were Zavier's 3.2 turnovers per game more kosher less of a concern?
January 14th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
I would agree he "pushes" a bit too much at times which creates out of control situations and turnovers, however I bet Coach would rather see that aggressiveness than a passive PG.
January 14th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
Think you left Foster Loyer/Rocket Watts off that list? jk
Seriously though, I think the takeaway is that Mike Smith needs to work on that aspect of his game, just like everyone on the team has their weakness. To his credit, I think that's Mike Smith's only weakness - his ability to score/make tough shots has transferred, he can dish and play at a high major level, rise to the moment in big games on natl TV, and run the offense/be the lead guard for a top 4 team!
Pretty good for the new guy, in a new place/school, new coaches/system, etc in a covid year. And if you've heard him in interviews, he seems like a sharp kid with his head and heart in the right place. He can turn the ball over a couple extra times in my book (and considering the alternatives...)
January 14th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Yes, correct !!
January 14th, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
does it REALLY bother you? c'mon.
January 14th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
As the OP, I took the advice of some of the responses to my post and threw out my boomer stats per game and went to the mecca of statistical analysis to ask Dylan and UMHoops why they insist on leading the charge in describing a point guard averaging 2.7 turnovers per his 30 minutes per game a problem.
They immediately pointed to the vaunted "tempo free" TOR rate that shows Smith at some 35% and that this is worst in the B1G. Well, that was like hitting a brick wall. Now how do I proceed to explain to Mike Smith that his 2.7 turnovers per game may sound fine but is actually an achilles heel that may sink the ship.
That said, I knew Mike would not react favorably to just providing a latent measure like TOR without explaining it to him in some depth. I make a living using statistical methods so I asked Dylan and the boys how can I explain this. After all, if you reverse this TOR of 35% to calculate what TOR considers for his time on ball, it would be less than 7.1 minutes (given 2.7 turnovers) which just does not make sense.
Well they explained that advanced statistics do not always have access to every discrete measure needed for perfect calculations. So in this case, possession of the ball is not actually calculated as it is represented by a pseudo measure. Specifically it is calculated based on shot attempts and free throw attempts (there is also a multiplier in the denominator but as a fixed integer it is not relevant to this discussion).
Well this was confusing to me. After all a poster above did us all a favor and found that Simpson took nearly 50% more field goals and free throws then Smith. I loved Zavier don't get me wrong, but as well all know...getting Zavier to shoot or on the free throw line was often even the defense's plan.
Thus, we now have a serious problem in my explaining to Mike how his 2.7 turnovers per game is much worse than the 3.2 turnovers by Zavier in his 5th year. I have to tell him that the main issue is that advanced stats do not credit you with much time on ball because you don't throw up the number of shots and free throws as Zavier, Dosunmu, etc.
Well the good news is that I think I found a solution for Mike's "turnover machine" problem. It seems he simply needs to start chucking the ball up more often and his TOR rate should start heading down to Zavier's in no time. Thanks everyone for your patience with this thread. I just wanted to see what we could do to help Mike Smith's reputation.
January 14th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
He does turn it over too often. But he's been, dare I say it, great to have. Cut down on one or 2 silly -I think that's the issue is that some of them have been "c'mon you know better" plays/TOs- a game and it will be much better peripherals.
January 14th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
So "by cutting down on 1 or 2 silly turnovers per game"...you are suggesting he needs to get to 0.7 turnovers per game (as he is at 2.7 at the moment). I just want to make sure I understand what you consider to be an appropriate level.