How many season ticket holders won't be renewing/students/COVID opt outs?

Submitted by MGoArchive on November 30th, 2020 at 1:12 PM

Let's get a show of how hands. Between this season, 5-10K people saying 'forget it' because of COVID (granted the vaccine should be reasonably distributed by September 2021, but there will be a group that probably says 'no thanks' still), lop off about 10K students saying nah, and 20-30K people walking away from these prices, Michigan Athletics has a serious problem on its hands.

treetown

November 30th, 2020 at 1:19 PM ^

Maybe a few, but if people didn't bail after Rich Rod and Brady Hoke, they'll stick around to see what comes next. Getting 100,000+ - now that might change. Remember even Bo didn't break that barrier until about half way in his great run - often there were 80-90,000 and he had some good teams.

MichiganStephen

November 30th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^

I agree with after RichRod, but the end of the 2013 season featured a great game vs. OSU where we lost by one point and at the end of 2014 we hired Harbaugh, so I think the smell of the 2014 season was quickly turned to optimism before the end of 2014 (when we were still allowed to deduct "donations" on our taxes) and also 1/31/2015 which would have been the renewal deadline if memory serves.

If they don't replace Harbaugh before 1/31/2021 (which I presume will be the deadline for the "donation"), it's going to get interesting. They're essentially weighing the risk of firing Harbaugh and paying the buyout(s) and hiring a new cost vs. retaining Harbaugh and dealing with lost revenue all while not having a typical environment in which to make a forecast.

UMxWolverines

November 30th, 2020 at 2:48 PM ^

Attendance would have been below 100k consistently if Hoke had come back...the Maryland game was a total sham. There was maybe 80,000 people there and that is what it will look like if Harbaugh comes back. Very few people have any hope left and the prices have gone up probably 30 dollars a ticket since even then. 

MS3

November 30th, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^

Fix the program and the attendance will take care of itself. Might just be me venting here, but I'm so sick of the "semantics" of this program. All of this "100,000+ attendance streaks", footballs in Schembechler Hall for each win, "Michigan men", etc. It's all hype, this program hasn't done a damn thing since 2004. Unfortunately, there are too many people with prominent voices within the football department, who can't seem to understand that this stuff is irrelevant in modern day college football.

rob f

November 30th, 2020 at 5:37 PM ^

It would have been a lot more interesting had they located and displayed a football actually used in as many of those particular wins as possible. 

Wouldn't it be great, for instance, to see an actual game ball lugged by the great Tom Harmon in 1940 against Ohio State?  Or the football punted dozens of times vs OSU in the Snow Bowl?  Or how about the football caught in the end zone to beat ND in UTL #1?

Those are the footballs that should be on that display. 

jasgoblue

November 30th, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^

I'm sorry guys. I enrolled in 2005 and it's been a shitfest since. My first game was against Ball State when a Brady Hoke team had us on the ropes. My first game as a season ticket holder was App State (sat right behind the goal posts in the student section). The Toledo reception (I think still a record for the Big House) happened right in front of me (10 yard line opposite the student section). I was there for a lot of MSU and OSU losses. I was at the Minny game where Shane was put back in after the obvious concussion. I've seen 1 OSU win in 15 years. I was at the "trouble with the snap" MSU game.

 

I've stopped wearing my Michigan hoodie on game days. I try to miss as much of the game as I can when it's on TV. I'm trying to get the bad luck I've brought on off the team, but not well enough.

thomar2k1

November 30th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^

I'm strongly considering giving my 3 season tickets up (held them since 2001). In part it's due to the product on the field being poor for so long, but just as importantly, I've found I don't really miss spending the whole day committed to the game. I like being able to do things in the morning of noon game, watch the game, then do other things after instead of taking the 100 mile drive each way. The other advantage being that my couch and bathroom are much more convenient than where we park and at the stadium.

Breaking patterns/traditions this year is likely to be a catalyst for people like me who haven't been happy with the on-field product but holding on based on tradition, but the break this year has caused changing behavior further.

Rh22

November 30th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^

Agree completely.  I have had 4 since 1997.  Each of my sons started going with me when they were 7-8...they are late 20s / early 30s now.  The Saturdays together are the only thing that kept me going this long but have been thinking about dropping them for a few years now.  I have felt the product on the field has been subpar versus the amount we are asked to pay with no real urgency on the part of the university (not the team) to change that.  This season off might be the catalyst as I haven't really missed it like I thought I would.

LSAClassOf2000

November 30th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^

All of us somehow linger in this place despite it all. I have to believe a surprisingly large portion of those currently holding tickets or those who otherwise had them this year would linger as well. We are gluttons for punishment like that. 

A Lot of Milk

November 30th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^

Student here. 99.9% of students at the games don't give a shit about football. They want a reason to drink and be social and that's what football games are to them.

Maybe you'll lose like 3 male students who think they are making a stand by protesting the team, but the vast, vast majority of students are not going to waste one of their years at Michigan not going to football games in order to make some strange symbolic stand. It's a social part of college, not dependent on the competitiveness of the team. Think why Nebraska always has a full student section for basketball, it's not because they're good.

Outside of the student section, sure, there can be drop offs. But the student section will be the same if there's a normal, non-COVID season (big if)

BTB grad

November 30th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^

Back when i was a student In 2014, after a disappointing 2013 season along with no marquee home games in the 2014 slate, the student section dropped from 21k in 2013 to 12k in 2014. So it definitely can and will happen. You can drink and be social without actually going to games. That's what most people did in 2014

bronxblue

November 30th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^

I mean, sure.  That's absolutely a scenario.  Just as likely is there's pent-up demand and people come flooding back.  At this point trying to figure out what 2021 looks like is just guessing.

I think the stadium experience has been dropping in basically all sports for some time; this might accelerate it but there's always a collection of diehards.

michchip

November 30th, 2020 at 1:32 PM ^

There's a year without football and a great home schedule next year. I don't think next year will be impacted too much, especially from a student standpoint. There will be the freshman and sophomore class who have never been to a game before as students.

I don't think you're looking at them losing 50% of season ticket holders - many of them already donated or rolled their money over to next year. Could be wrong, but we'll find out in 9 months.

crg

November 30th, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^

No, but I gave up my tickets last off season after seeing so many good non-conference games get replaced by cupcakes the past few years.  Sure the team gets a win and a tune up, but I'm not going to commit to a day's worth of time, travel and expenses to see it.  (Not my only complaint, but it became the tipping point... the performance on the team itself was relatively low on the list).

aa_squared

November 30th, 2020 at 1:43 PM ^

After 35 years, I am strongly considering it, so at this time, I will say yes, I'll give them up. Hopefully someone in our family will want them.

Don't know if I can afford another $2,000 a year for another 4 - 6 year re-build; as I see it. Heck, I even saw $60.00 parking prices for the OSU game. 

Prices will always go up, and they (the entire industry, not just Michigan) are in the process of pricing me out.

stephenrjking

November 30th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^

Michigan has a terrific fanbase, which has thus far allowed it to remain immune to the trends that were afflicting sports everywhere prior to 2020. Everybody has been having trouble filling seats. Alabama, which is the dominant power with a huge fanbase in a college football-mad state, is reducing its seating capacity. Places like Florida have struggled for years; Florida State regularly played before 10-20,000 empty seats. 

The fact that Michigan has continued to stay at or near capacity through all this, particularly with the uneven product on the field, is a testament to the loyalty and quality of the fans. There really *is* something special about Michigan.

But it can't last. There has been an attendance bubble in football for years, and the pandemic is likely the catastrophe that pops it. Honestly speaking, I predicted that this year would be the year we finally sunk below 100,000 in attendance assuming that Warde didn't do the DB thing of fraudulent number inflation. Obviously, I can't pretend the pandemic-caused empty stadiums bear any relationship to that, so my prediction is, at best, an "incomplete." 

But the reality is that people aren't as enthusiastic about attending games in-person as they used to be. We've had robust discussions about that on this board. The at-home viewing experience is better than ever. Want to watch on a 75" screen? They're less than $1000 right now at Best Buy. A little more expense and you can get rather excellent surround-sound to listen to the audio with, too. You can use your DVR to instantly re-watch that great play as it happened live, or to flip back and see where the blocking worked or didn't work on that running play. You get your own restroom and your own food. You don't have to pay for parking, walk, get cold, etc.

And it is really expensive to go to games now. The cost of tickets relative to the cost of the dollar is just astronomically high compared to 20-30 years ago. And program would rather maintain those high prices and lose a few thousand fans at games than drop the prices to include a much wider number of customers to fill the seats. 

It's not that nobody will ever go, but more people will go less. I took my daughters to the MTSU game last year and we had a great time; it was also a significant undertaking (in all ways except financial, with a kind mgoblogger donating excellent tickets to me, something for which I will always be grateful). It was just a heavy day. I couldn't do that all the time. Other people may choose to go once or twice a year instead of every game. You get the experience, and you sit at home for that game against Purdue in 40-degree temps that really doesn't excite you.

This has been a trend for a long time. It is to Michigan's credit that it hasn't seriously affected us yet, 2014 aside. But assuming the pandemic doesn't totally reverse the pull of in-person events, there is no escaping it, and a terrible season like this simply provides extra fuel to encourage the trend. 

When MGrowOld announced on this board that he was dropping his season tickets (maybe after 2013, if I recall correctly) he was excoriated. I certainly had critical words for it. He has actually been rather gracious about this choice since then on here, declining to spike the football when he well could have. Because I don't think anybody really questions the wisdom of that choice anymore. 

True Blue Grit

November 30th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^

Agree.  But the whole notion that "we've been at or near capacity" or that we've still been getting over 100,000 is a complete myth.  Maybe the tickets have technically been sold to someone.  But the number of people who actually walk through the gates and scan their tickets has been FAR below the stadium capacity for some years now.  If anyone doesn't believe me, research the Wall Street Journal article around 3 years ago where they analyzed attendance statistics for all the major football programs and found that almost all of them had reported attendance far higher than the actual number of people in the stands.  Michigan was one of the better ones around 75 or 80 percent.  There were a bunch of programs less than 50%.  People are already not showing up in large numbers even if they are still paying for the seats.  The couple who own the seats next to us hardly ever go to the games.  We've only seen them a couple times in the last 5 years.  It's only a matter of time before others wise up and just not buy them at all.  

Since85

November 30th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^

Mostly this^.  As the user name implies, I've had tickets since then.  I've met a group of people that used to sit behind me and became fast friends.  Then the expansion of the student section came and we have maintained our seats, all 18 of them in two rows in the south end zone since.  We've paid for season parking at a local business and we've had some stellar times...at the tailgates and at some games no doubt.  My wife asked me this year "is this what most people do on Saturdays?"  as we were working together in our yard.  Our tailgate group gathered together at our home for the opener and at another couples home for the next two games.  We had an outstanding time together!  We ate very well, drank throughout the game, went to the restroom when we wanted and had a really short drive home.  We all talked about how we would probably keep our tickets but we would not attend nearly as much, which was damn near every game! 

It is a losing proposition for sure monetarily.  PSC + average ticket + per game parking + extraordinary time requirement does not ever equal market value.  We've lost the zeal we once had.  Michigan football does not mean as much as it used to.  We're all still fans, believe it if you will, I don't care.  And when anything in my/our lives reaches that status of "I really don't care that much anymore"  then we adjust accordingly.  The care, if it comes back, rarely occupies the same status as before.     

Since85

November 30th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^

Mostly this^.  As the user name implies, I've had tickets since then.  I've met a group of people that used to sit behind me and became fast friends.  Then the expansion of the student section came and we have maintained our seats, all 18 of them in two rows in the south end zone since.  We've paid for season parking at a local business and we've had some stellar times...at the tailgates and at some games no doubt.  My wife asked me this year "is this what most people do on Saturdays?"  as we were working together in our yard.  Our tailgate group gathered together at our home for the opener and at another couples home for the next two games.  We had an outstanding time together!  We ate very well, drank throughout the game, went to the restroom when we wanted and had a really short drive home.  We all talked about how we would probably keep our tickets but we would not attend nearly as much, which was damn near every game! 

It is a losing proposition for sure monetarily.  PSC + average ticket + per game parking + extraordinary time requirement does not ever equal market value.  We've lost the zeal we once had.  Michigan football does not mean as much as it used to.  We're all still fans, believe it if you will, I don't care.  And when anything in my/our lives reaches that status of "I really don't care that much anymore"  then we adjust accordingly.  The care, if it comes back, rarely occupies the same status as before.     

XtremeUMich

November 30th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^

After 20 years we are out. The costs have just gotten out of hand for us.  Following that the in-stadium experience of sitting there during a million TV time outs is beyond frustrating. Personally I absolutely hate noon games, makes it hard to get there for anytime to tailgate and enjoy the event. I'm sure if the team was competitive we would find a way but can no longer justify it. It sucks and I will miss it tremendously but it's just reality at this point.

rob f

November 30th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^

After being a season ticket holder since 1977 I'm finally trending in the same direction but holding off through at least the 2021 season. Those seats are already taken care of by rolling this season's ticket $$$ over to next year.

Beyond that, I had already been thinking roughly another half-dozen seasons before cutting back to just a few games per season, as I'm already in my mid 60s and I know that at some point it's time to cut back.

At this point, though, I'm seriously reevaluating.  If things stay as they are with the program, I'm envisioning 2022 or 2023 as time to cut way back on games attended.  

But for me yet right now, the tailgating with friends and family has long been a huge part of the equation on gameday each fall.  We've got a core tailgating gang who number anywhere from at least a dozen of us up to 2 dozen or more.  They still make it well worth the 2 1/2 hour drive each way, despite  the agonizing decline of the program.

As much as or more than the games themselves, I miss the hell out of football tailgating with my bunch and look forward to a return to normal next fall. 

Sione For Prez

November 30th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^

I will be keeping my tickets. But going to games is an extended family affair (12+ people with tickets) who all get together for the tailgate. We make it an entire day for all home games and is something we all look forward to all year. To be honest, I've hated having to be at home for every game this year.

With all that said, I do not blame anyone for wanting to give up tickets. Thankfully I live close enough to Ann Arbor so the drive home isn't bad but between the price increases, tv networks waiting as long as possible to announce game times, uncomfortable seating, long lines for bathrooms and concessions, extended commercial timeouts and poor matchups on the field it can be a bit of a slog.

WindyCityBlue

November 30th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^

I was THIS close to bailing back in the last year of Hoke.  I waited until who they decided to hire and when it was Harbaugh, I re-upped immediately. 

I'm in the same position today.  I'll see what they do regarding the coaching role at the end of the season.

Bluegriz

November 30th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^

Season tickets are already paid for 2021 by people who paid in 2020 and did not choose either of the other two options (full refund or convert to donation).  So for me, I am already paid in full with no decision to make for the 2021 season.  So yeah, I'm getting tickets in 2021.

I also believe M Football is one of those evergreen things for enough people where the ticket situation won't be too dire.  After a year off, where most people haven't been able to do ANYTHING, people will be itching to go to games and visit Ann Arbor.  If there's a new coach, the demand for tickets will be even greater.

SpamCityCentral

November 30th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^

I don't know how people can go to all the homes games. I used to love going to the games when I was younger. Now it just pisses me off when i'm being touched by 6 different people in my seat.

Bluesince89

November 30th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^

I gave up my season tickets a years back, but it doesn't really have to do with the product on the field.  I end up working quite a few weekends because it's my only time to catch-up on things I couldn't get to during the week, and the kids have sports and it's generally family time.  The cost of going as a family is outrageous too.  I still go to 1-2 games a year, but I'll just find tickets on the used market, and there's usually someone in my office trying to unload a ticket for face value because a family conflict.  Maybe I'll re-up when my kids are old enough to appreciate it (3 under 7), but for now, my couch and 70" big screen are just fine.

Quail2theVict0r

November 30th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^

If I made it through Hoke and RR I can make it through this. Part of the fun of gameday is the whole event, not necessarily just the game. I really miss tailgating this year and seeing the normal crew. 

MGoStrength

November 30th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^

We all have a serious problem on our hands...Covid.  The world has been fundamentally changed for the better half of a year.  What's going on at UM is just a bad football coach.  It's not the first.  Heck it's not even the second this second this decade.  It will happen again.  It's also fixable.  The larger economic issue is Covid.

Malarkey

November 30th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^

I dont understand what you are trying to say

 

Covid will be under complete control by fall 2021 due to incredibly effective vaccines

 

I'm far more confident in the rapid end of the covid pandemic than I am about Michigan football making a big ten title game