How do you think Michigan would have done against Georgia had it beat TCU?

Submitted by Cousin Larry on July 10th, 2023 at 12:35 PM

OT season yada yada yada . . .

I just watched a quick five-minute recap of Georgia's domination over TCU (here).  Cripes.  Georgia might as well have been playing a MAC team.  

THIS TCU team put upon 51 points on Michigan (an forced 3 turnovers)??  THIS Georgia team barely got by Ohio State (who got pantsed by Michigan at home)??  Was this all about matchups, or just the randomness that is college football?

Regardless, had Michigan pulled off the comeback against TCU, what do you think the final score would have been against Georgia?  I honestly have no idea anymore.  

Real Tackles Wear 77

July 10th, 2023 at 5:04 PM ^

We probably would have lost in a game where the score is somewhat respectable but makes it look closer than it really was...a big step forward from 2021 vs UGA but something like 38-21 maybe.

The reality is that we were a better team than TCU and probably would win a semifinal matchup with them 7 or 8 times out of ten. 

I'm personally salivating as we look towards this season because things are really lined up, I think this year has the potential to be better than both the 21 and 22 teams on both offense and defense (not special teams), and there doesn't project to be a UGA juggernaut like there was the past two years standing in our way. That's not to say the playoff is a guarantee, we had to win a close one against Illinois which there's no guarantee would go our way again, but it's a good place to start from.

energyblue1

July 10th, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^

I’m still wondering what all happened as things were going on with Matt Weiss at this time none of us knew about and how much it affected game plan for offense.  It just seemed so discombobulated a game plan.  

Get by tcu and who knows. Georgia came out on fire for the natty game so they wanted a fight.  That was a massive difference to how they came out vs osu.  That said, like Osu I think we give them a dog fight.  But neither Corum or Edwards were healthy, Olu wasn’t healthy and we had a couple guys banged up on defense.   So, hard to say..  It would have been a great game with everyone ready to go.  Without everyone healthy ready to go, Georgia 2 or 3 td’s.. 

Blue Vet

July 10th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^

If we'd made the comeback against TCU, I think that would have been the first pancake (always toss the first pancake), so it's better than 50/50 we'd have beaten Georgia too.

Romeo50

July 10th, 2023 at 5:59 PM ^

That Georgia team was not the same team a the year before on defense especially. Lower score than OSU and JJ would have to run more which (in the last game) would be likely. Worked well to loosen up TCU after early caution. Mistakes still could have happened to doom us but that is always true.

M-Dog

July 10th, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^

We would have gotten dominated.  Michigan was Georgia-lite.  Georgia had better players at just about every single position.  Georgia would have shut down the game that Michigan wanted to play.

We don't like them, but Ohio State is built to be much more competitive in games like Georgia in climate controlled environments than we are.  OSU was able to exploit Georgia's one (relative) weakness - at DB.  Tennessee gave them some trouble there too.  Had they not lost Harrison, I firmly believe that OSU would have beaten Georgia and would be the reigning National Champions.  Good thing for us that didn't happen.

So what does Michigan do?  And Ohio State for that matter?  Ohio State is built to win CFP games in warm/indoor weather.  But Michigan is built to beat Ohio State in November.  Both have some benefits and holes in their approach.

To get to the very top of college football and win NCs, you need supreme QB and WR play to go along with a shut-down DL.  Those are the keys. 

Michigan could have a legit shot this year, depending on how JJ and the WRs around him progress.  But it also depends on how the Michigan play calling progresses as well.  You are not going to win CFP games by playing smashmouth football and running 65% of the time . . . which is Harbaugh's self-described "favorite way to win".  Michigan will need the players AND coaches to develop their game to the highest level to win in the CFP.     

 

CFraser

July 10th, 2023 at 8:36 PM ^

Obviously matchups but also the TCU game had a disproportionate amount of bad luck. If UM played UGA last year, we’d have a similar 42-20 stomping on UM.

Bo Harbaugh

July 10th, 2023 at 8:50 PM ^

UGA played their worst game of the year against OSU

UM played its worst game of the year against TCU

UGA played lights out against TCU

Peak UM vs. average UGA, we should win.

Peak UM vs. Peak UGA...they win.

Transitive property doesnt really work in assessing 1 game outcomes.

JonathanE

July 10th, 2023 at 11:17 PM ^

I think Michigan was focusing on Georgia and looked past TCU with game planning. I think TCU focused everything on Michigan and was left with very little scouting and game prep for Georgia. 

alum96

July 11th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^

Conservative Jim would have tried to run it up the gut and try to grind it out.  Once down a few TDs he would open it up but by then it's too late.  It would have been a frustrating 17ish point type of loss.  People underestimate how good Stetson was as a college QB.

Jim has yet to make the Saban leap to understanding when you face the big dogs you need to open up to top gear from minute 1 of the game.  He still is in stubborn I will do it my way because it works against Minnesota.  The 2nd half offense vs TCU should have been the offense from the first minute.  The pass would have set up the run but he is stubborn on doing the opposite no matter what.  It wouldn't work against UGA.

ps there is no transitive property in CFB.  OSU is set up like a track team so those surfaces and no weather conditions play to their strengths.  Michigan is set up to play in all weather conditions but will suffer a bit on those turf fields vs some of the top 2-3 "all world althete 5 star factory" teams chock full of those type of players in that setting/surface. 

AlbanyBlue

July 12th, 2023 at 12:52 AM ^

Alum96 -- 100% Top Marks. Top gear from minute one.

I'm not saying air raid or throw deep balls on the first six plays, but the light that has to go on is putting everything on the table right away. And to do this in the big games, Jim has to rep it during the season and then take the bowl practices to refine things.

That 30-yard "hole shot" pass we used once against Iowa? Yeah, we need to attempt passes like that ten times in games that matter. Zone read with JJ? RPO with JJ? Yep, staples in the first quarter. The 25-yard pass in the middle of the field that I saw once or twice to Schoon? Yeah, do that a lot in the first half. This is what it takes to win against teams of equal or better talent.

The best thing? It's the perfect year to break our tendencies in the big games. We have the team to get to the CFP again, and when we do, our opponent will expect us to do the standard Michigan stuff..

Buffalowing Blue

July 11th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^

You cant win a game on the first drive but man did they kill their chances to get any momentum going.  Had Edwards been healthy nobody would have caught him on that opening run.

Take away one of those pick 6's or goal line fumble and they win that game.

TCU played the game of their lives while Michigan played their worth game of the year and barely won.

Hate to say but if Michigan played UGA I think they would have won by 20 points.  Nobody was on their level.