Golden Nugget just released its 100 "Games of the Year" lines
Just dropped about a half hour ago.
Michigan games include:
September 7: Army at Michigan (-17.5)
September 21: Michigan (-5) at Wisconsin
October 5: Iowa at Michigan (-12)
October 26: Notre Dame at Michigan (-6)
November 16: Michigan St at Michigan (-13.5)
November 30: Ohio St at Michigan (-3.5)
https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/college-football-game-of-the-year-lines-odds-golden-nugget
So Michigan is favored in all these match-ups. A bit surprised they're more than a field goal favorite against Ohio St. Just beat them (for once) I guess. We'll see...
Vegas doesn't seem too concerned about Army.
This feels like a game where everyone is going to be convinced it's going to be close because of the Oklahoma / Army game last year and Michigan is going to blow them out.
Hopefully you're right. Army will be a borderline top 25 team coming into the season, and they return their impressive QB from last year Kelvin Hopkins Jr
As discussed on here before, Army was 84th on S&P last year, sandwiched between 7-6 USF and 5-7 Air Force. They're a top 25 team only in that pollsters care far more about records and a sort of fluky game against Oklahoma than actual metrics.
Bill C will admit, and did in his Army preview, that Army breaks the S&P+ system because of the triple option and the fact that they are incredibly unexplosive but frequently go for it and convert on 4th to make up for that.
That being said I agree they're not as good as people think. This false narrative of them returning 20 starters was spread and now everyone is overrating them even with that being squashed.
Because the metrics that actually matter are, you know, winning games. S&P for two straight years has pegged them as an 8 and 7 win team respectively based on stats and schedule and they've won 11 and 10. Maybe it's a fluke. Or maybe S&P isn't a great metric for a high variance flexbone team.
Michigan could torch them. Michigan could also find themselves in a nailbiter and lose. The variance of the flexbone allows Army to struggle to beat an FCS Colgate team one week and absolutely embarrass Houston in a bowl game. That offense gives you a chance, sometimes a very small chance, to beat almost anyone. Hell a mediocre FCS Citadel team was tied with Alabama at the half last year and ran for 275 on the Tide!
The issue with scheduling this game is that the variance of possibilities is so very wide as opposed to nearly every other non Power 5 program.
I think Michigan wins comfortably but take Army +17.5. Service academies cover 3 score spreads ~75% of the time.
We might get the football 7-9 times all game so a total blowout is unlikely unless we go 7 drives for 7 touchdowns. Their style of play will make it probably close into the 3rd quarter, even if we are dominating much of the game. I'll still take us to cover the spread. Just not an easy first half cover where we spend the second half with the 3rd string in.
Username checks out with the last sentence
Yea, but we didn't even beat OSU in 1952. HOW LONG HAVE WE BEEN WAITING?!
We could go 12-0 on the season and 0-6 ATS in these games.
I'll take that result in a heartbeat.
Our relationship with the spread in Vegas, especially in recent years, has been.....I guess the word might be "complex". I could see 0-6 ATS as well but somehow, by some stroke of unbelievable luck given that this includes OSU, successful in each affair.
Isn't that true of any team favored in all of their games by at least 1.5?
Proving that even Maizen has a hope for happiness.
LOCK OF THE YEAR!
I bet Michigan at 17-1 to win the 2019 NCAA CFB National Championship many weeks ago,
I just can't decide whether to order the patio furniture from Walmart right now so I can use them this summer or waste valuable time and wait until January (when the items are on sale) and the obvious becomes official.
Advice?
Get the furniture now!
Rip out the patio and put in a pool. You'll have the cash!
Patio furniture will cost more than $17.
If anyone in the Boston area is thinking of heading back to Ann Arbor for the Iowa or MTSU game, let me know. Those are the last two games of my season tickets I am not going to be able to make it back for.
When will people stop making Michigan the favorite against OSU?
As soon as the last moron has quit betting his mortgage payment on Michigan.
Apparently, there isn't a shortage of morons as of yet.
I guess you are talking about me and people who believe in patriotism.
Yes, I did bet M to win the NC.
That would obviously mean they will dispose of all the teams they play from every state including Ohio.
Simple math even for a moron.
Unless you are my banker don't worry about the mortgage payment.
Does anyone know where I can get a good deal on patio furniture that won't cost more than $85?
Besides the Wisconsin game, I'd probably move every other game at least 3 points in the direction opposite Michigan.
I think Michigan beats Army comfortably, but they can slow the game down and because they are an abnormal offense, keep it relatively close.
Iowa is always a tough team (at least it isn't at Iowa at night), their defense will be solid and Epenesa will give Michigan some fits. I actually like their QB alright, and they may be able to run the ball a bit off the right side. Again, predict Michigan to win, but 12 seems high as a spread.
Notre Dame loses a lot, but Book is solid and they have some good pieces all around. This seems like a tight game to me.
Michigan destroyed MSU last year... and won by 14. Realistic worst case for MSU is a repeat of last year: awful offense and great defense. They'll keep games close. They typically do. Not sure how Vegas got to 13.5 on that one.
I wouldn't favor Michigan over OSU until they have the monkey off the back. Right now, it's not just talent, not just scheme, it's also psychological. They have a lot to overcome already, because OSU will be very talented, just don't see how you can make them the favorites, even if you assume the game will be close.
That said, Wisconsin early, they should be able to run the ball fairly well, but I don't see how they keep it to 6 points. And I'd personally predict Michigan to win each of those games right now besides OSU, so yeah.
i think this is a fair assessment.
don't the sports books usually consider home field advantage a 3 point advantage so the effective line on the OSU game is -.5 or essentially a toss up?
LMAO... people looking at Lost-Wages odds.
Those numbers have more to do with the economics of the betting process and fan-base than they do with the games themselves.
Good luck with that...
Don't be that guy.
The Ed Warinner/Josh Gattis effect....
Lulz at -12 vs Iowa
Texas A&M favored over Auburn...... ok... It is at A&M. So maybe.
Alabama by 16 over LSU, at Alabama so maybe. 16 is a lot though. It would be tough on Ed Orgeron if LSU does get beaten that badly again by Alabama. LSU was beaten 24-10 at Alabama in 2017. And 29-0 at home last year. Last year was Bad. Alabama outgained LSU 576 to 196. LSU will have to look better than that this year.
They left Michigan at Penn St off the list. The White Game too tough to call at this point, I am guessing.
And is it just me, or does Texas A&M have a tough schedule:
Obligatory -
Bookmakers do not predict game scores, they predict betting habits. Their only goal is to get equal bidding on each side of the game so that they make their money on the juice. If they do their job correctly, dollars are equal before the opening kickoff - they win no matter what the final score They don't care what you think the final game score will be.
So the fuck what?
Also, of course they care what you think the final game score will be. That's how they set the lines to get the betting going.
Can't wait to see who the starting running back will be!
That state line seems... generous.
That says 15-0 with a Big 10 and national championship.