FiveThirtyEight: The NFL Draft Is Looking More And More Like Signing Day
Interesting statistical trend as it relates to the draft. Final tally from yesterday was 17 out of the 32 1st rounders were 4 or 5 star recruits. Impressive given the following.
April 26th, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
Ha, great visual. thanks for posting.
April 26th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
Probably because high school scouting is getting better.
That pie chart is kinda misleading to, no? How many of the "not 4 or 5 star" guys get scholarships, how many get D1 offers, how many P5?
Right. Does this include D3 players too? Or even some guys who end up not playing in college at all?
If everyone D1 signs 25 guys/cycle (probably 1-2 lower than that but whatever) there are about 3200 entrants to that level of football each year.
247 had 401 4 stars in the 2019 class.
The pie chart definitely includes all levels of football.
I think it’s looking more and more like the Oscars.
So, if you mean that occasionally we sit there and wonder how someone or something so overrated could get so many accolades, then yes....
Before the actual draft when they were bringing the players out, calling their names then lining them up before a crowd of spectators I thought it was looking more and more like The Hunger Games.
so. at a meta level, stars matter?
Well shit, Maizen. Let nobody say your narrative lacks consistency, or that you don't have a pin-hole-pure vision for its constant implementation. Why you've chosen this hill to die on is beyond me, but there you are, day in and day out... dying. I really hope it's rewarding in some way that I'm missing.
This is because of any 3* kid gets an offer from a top Coach, they automatically get another star.
See that QB from OSU that transferred. He was a 3* kid, with an average offer list and after Urban offered was bumped to a 4*
Also, what sucks about this type of analysis is that it’s done as a final rank, not as a rank at the time of commitment. When is the final ranking out even? July?
13 of the first 20 picks last night were Top247 prospects with D. Bush just outside of it...somehow some still come to the conclusion that there isn't a strong correlation with recruiting rankings/ratings. Take a high school statistics course?
— Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) April 26, 2019
So they totally missed on almost half of the first round by ranking those guys 400+?
Obviously awesome HS players are good to get as commits as a rule. Color me unimpressed with the services outside of that group.
April 27th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
Yikes. Imagine looking at that chart and those numbers and thinking this. Good lord.
Ill take top 50/100 4 and 5 star players anyday and we need more of them.
April 27th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
It's because for the most part, the recruiting services are putting the 4/5 star label on the guys with NFL-ready bodies. That's what gets you a 4/5 star.
They are not really taking a wild guess on who will develop NFL football skills in 3 or 4 years.
That's why they miss on so many 3-stars. It's not so obvious who has the ability to be able to play in the league.