Examining McElwain's OFEI Rank and Talent at 'Bama
Hello folks,
How 'Bama was 'Bama recruiting when McElwain coached there and how good was his offense with that level of talent? How does that compare to Michigan's talent-level? There's plenty of hand-waiving going on, so I thought I'd look into it.
Methodology
- Use Wiki to find the 2008-2011 'Bama offense starters.
- Use the 247 Composite to check 'Bama starters' rating and create an average.
- Evaluate the talent level in light of OFEI Rank (link).
- Compare this information to Michigan's probable starters and their 247 rating.
Chart: 'Bama Starters and 247 Ranking + OFEI Rank
| 2008 Starters | 2008 Composite Rating | 2009 Starters | 2009 Composite Rating | 2010 Starters | 2010 Composite Rating | 2011 Starters | 2011 Composite Rating |
| Mike McCoy, WR | 3 | Brad Smelley, FB | 3 | Preston Dial, FB | 3 | Brad Smelley, FB | 3 |
| Marquis Maze, WR | 3 | Marquis Maze, WR | 3 | Marquis Maze, WR | 3 | Marquis Maze, WR | 3 |
| Andre Smith, LT | 5 | James Carpenter, LT | 4 | James Carpenter, LT | 4 | Barrett Jones, LT | 4 |
| Mike Johnson, LG | 4 | Mike Johnson, LG | 4 | Chance Warmack, LG | 3 | Chance Warmack, LG | 3 |
| Antoine Caldwell, C | 3 | William Vlachos, C | 4 | William Vlachos, C | 4 | William Vlachos, C | 4 |
| Marlon Davis, RG | 3 | Barrett Jones, RG | 4 | Barrett Jones, RG | 4 | Anthony Steen, RG | 3 |
| Drew Davis, RT | 2 | Drew Davis, RT | 2 | D.J. Fluker, RT | 5 | D.J. Fluker, RT | 5 |
| Nick Walker, TE | 4 | Colin Peek, TE | 3 | Michael Williams, TE | 4 | Michael Williams, TE | 4 |
| Julio Jones, WR | 5 | Julio Jones, WR | 5 | Julio Jones, WR | 5 | DeAndrew White, WR | 4 |
| John Parker Wilson, QB | 3 | Greg McElroy, QB | 3 | Greg McElroy, QB | 3 | AJ McCarron, QB | 4 |
| Glen Coffee, RB | 3 | Mark Ingram, RB | 4 | Mark Ingram, RB | 4 | Trent Richardson, RB | 5 |
| Average | 3.454545455 | 3.545454545 | 3.818181818 | 3.818181818 | |||
| OL Average | 3.4 | 3.6 | 4 | 3.8 | |||
| Offense Rank | 14 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Chart: What of Michigan?
| 2017 Predicted Starters | 2017 Composite Rating |
| Kekoa Crawford, WR | 4 |
| Ben Mason, FB | 3 |
| Nolan Ulizio, LT | 3 |
| Ben Bredeson, LG | 4 |
| Cesar Ruiz, C | 4 |
| Michael Onwenu, RG | 4 |
| Juwann Bushell-Beatty, RT | 4 |
| Zach Gentry, TE | 4 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR | 5 |
| Shea Patterson, QB | 5 |
| Karan Higdon, RB | 3 |
| Average | 3.909090909 |
| OL Average | 3.8 |
Thoughts
On its face, it looks like McElwain accomplished some impressive things at 'Bama with less talent than Michigan has presently, at least based on ratings. Year one of McElwain was especially impressive because 'Bama's OFEI ranking was 67th when he came in. Also, especially if Patterson starts, Michigan would have the same number of 5-star starters as 'Bama's teams did during McElwain's tenure (though none at OT). Finally, I think Michigan of present and 'Bama during McElwain have similar quality defenses.
- Only looking at starters
- Not sure if a starter at 'Bama during that stretch is like a Mattison starter--i.e., guys who rotate a great deal
- Only looking at recruiting rankings as a proxy for talent
Conclusions
Maybe McElwain isn't so bad? I know this is looking at data from a long time ago, but he seemed to do a great deal with less talent than he'll have at Michigan. Also, I was very conservative about Michigan's talent pool (no Black listed, for example), so I may even be understating that talent edge.
On the other hand, any improvements in talent really depends on what was a 'starter' at 'Bama. I'm not sure about that. Also, this was years ago, and perhaps arguments can be made about the game passing McElwain by. There's also something to be said of integrating his concepts into Michigan's current system, and whether there will be a transition cost associated with that.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
I mean, he wasn't great at RT last year, so I thought Hudson or someone else would be ahead of him. But, it's your chart and you had to make a judgement call.
Also, it should be "2018 predicted starters."
Overall, good info. Thanks for putting this together.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^
OL is likely one of these combos
LT - LG - C - RG - RT
Hudson - Bredeson - Ruiz - Onwenu - JBB/Stueber
Hudson/Stueber - Filiaga - Ruiz - Onwenu - Bredeson
Ulizio is unlikely anywhere near the starting 5
also, Black starts over Crawford
February 16th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
They're not going to move their best tackle recruit to guard. And there is NO WAY they move Bredeson to RT. Enough.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
I never understood this.
Bredeson was supposedly competing for a tackle spot with Newsome. It was supposedly down to the wire as to who would start in 2016. Even if this was exaggerated, certainly Bredeson had to be better than Ulizio? More complete than JBB (not as good on the ground, but better at pass protect)?
You could have rolled out: Cole-Ruiz-Kugler-Onwenu-Bredeson
Or if Kugler was really such a liability at center:
Bredeson-Kugler/Ruiz-Cole-Onwenu-JBB
God the OL was a mess last year.
February 16th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
i see anderson/ bredeson / ruiz/ onwenu/ JBB or
steuber/ spanellis/ ruiz/ onwenu/ bredeson
spanellis was getting lots of reps end of year, so was runyan, pretty sure they looked at bredeson at right tackle to get spanellis at left guard, thats if jbb is a no go
i have a feeling M is gona get anderson
February 16th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
encouraging.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
to QB play
we saw what bad QB did for us against OSU the last 2 years - missing wide open receivers didn't have anything to do with the OL
February 16th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^
Well he's going to have a better QB than John Parker Wilson and Greg McElroy
February 16th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
Yeah McElroy was obviously producing at a NC level, but Shea is more naturally talented. That's the hope - that McElwain can produce similar results that he did with less talent at the position.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:49 AM ^
I don't think your 2017 Michigan starters are accurate, but I appreciate your analysis. I always like a rational take vs yelling. Nice job.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
Yeah Crawford and Ulizio won't be starting, and I doubt JBB will either but it's possible I suppose. It would actually benefit our position to substitute Black for Crawford and Stueber or Hudson for JBB, in terms of recruiting rankings.
February 16th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
Your point about switching guys out for more likely starters yielding a net positive is right. This is even the case if you switch out Perry for a FB, as Ben Mason is a 3 star.
February 16th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
If Ulizio starts at left tackle this year, I see only darkness.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
Why? Ulizio is a generic 3* kid, who is in his 3rd year at Michigan. Michigan prefered him to 4* Sam Madden. Doesn't basically every other football team have a random 3* RS Sophomore OL player (due to injury or development/ skill)?
February 16th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
Not sure if this is sarcasm or not.
It has nothing to do with his star ranking. It has everything to do with him getting burnt by every pass rusher he faced this past year.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^
We have as much talent as any offense in the country in my opinion. If we can figure out the OT position the sky is the limit for this offense.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
There is no way McElwain gets full control on offense. Harbaugh is here. What is he going to do, clap like Hoke all game? Previous history also shows multiple people involved on offense.
February 16th, 2018 at 8:20 PM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
Maybe it's possible to develop a combined 'seniority/247 rating' metric as a proxy for development and production, then compare that to actual development and production. I don't know. I'm pretty new to all this.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
I.E. if I have 4 and 5 stars in the backfield and WR core, but a 2 star at QB and LT, my team might have a higher composite rating than a team of all 3*, but the bad QB play coupled with poor protection might kill the team.
Also, what evidence do we have that McElwain recruited these guys?
All that said, good post. I am less dismal about next year than I was a few days ago. We have holes, and worries, particularly in QB and tackles. But if we can at least up the QB play and have an offense that is okay, but DOESN'T TURN THE BALL OVER we can be okay.
No guarantees. The schedule is brutal. But I think we'll be okay.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
I think almost every team, except for your modern 'Bama/Ohio States of the world, is going to have a hole somewhere. For Michigan, it's almost certainly on oline. 'Bama for a good part of the time I was looking at them, seemed to get away with having less than incredible QBs, and for a while, solid--but not great--running backs.
Where you make up for it is scheme. I think Michigan before last year was a great example. How the team managed to get around a rough o-line said great things about the coaching staff's ingenuity and creativity.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
Not sure I understand the point about whether McElwain recruited these guys. What does that matter in an analysis of what he might be able to do with the talent he has?
February 16th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
As a question on his recruiting ability.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
I like the hire. McElwain was pretty good at his stops before Florida. His inability to develop a QB was his downfall. Does that sound familiar at this point? I'm more worried about too many cooks in the kitchen again this year but I still think something is going to shake out.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
From ThatTCGuy post below "Once the Grier thing happened and he was faced with the black hole that was Muschamp's QB recruiting..." maybe he didn't have a quaterback that was capable of being developed? Sometimes you need some clay to work with. The obvious retort is, why didn't he bring someone in? Maybe he tried and missed. So one miss on bringing someone in and not being able to turn nothing into something doesn't necessarily mean much.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
At all stops before Florida, he fielded good offenses and was consistently able to maximize the talent he had. And again, he's an assistant coach focusing mostly on the WRs who will share some not-yet-fully-defined role with the overall offensive playcalling. He'll be a positive.
February 16th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
Or he had unbelievable talent like Mark Ingram and Julio Jones at Bama, then cratered on offense at Florida.
February 16th, 2018 at 1:22 PM ^
You're ignoring his time at Fresno State and CSU.
He also didn't have unbelievable talent at Alambama to start with. That's in the OP.
As for Ingram, he was a four star and the 112th player overall per 247. That's very good but not unbelievable.
There's no getting around his failure at Florida, but he's had a lot of success as an OC.
February 16th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
LOL. Mark Ingram was "only" the 112th player out of high school. I guess the fact he has 4.5 yard per carry and neary 50 TDs in the NFL doesn't mean much.
Do Julio Jones next!
C'mon man
February 16th, 2018 at 1:45 PM ^
That wasn't what he was - or at least not what he was perceived as - coming out of high school. The 112th player is "unbelievable." That was your word.
February 16th, 2018 at 2:17 PM ^
He is an unbelieveable talent. His NFL career proves it. I guess Alabama either saw that talent or got lucky. Either way, they had that talent on their roster. Or it must have been McElwain.....
February 16th, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^
I wonder how the 'bad blood' between Harbaugh and him will play out over time.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^
February 16th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
According to ESPN's FPI efficiency;
#71 in 2015
#84 in 2016
#105 in 2017
I think I'll give him a slight pass, considering the lack of QB talent through most of that tenure. Here's hoping having Shea Patterson will make all of the difference for 2018.
February 16th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
This is a phenomenal post. Prefaced with motivation, quantitative data, methodology clearly outlined, a well stated conclusion, and even an admission of the method's limitations. Add an abstract and an acknowledgements sections and you could submit this to a real journal. Kudos.
February 16th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
Very kind of you to say so.
A major issue that folks have noted is that I've probably got the starting lineup wrong for Michigan. I'll wait for other responses and then make some adjustments. However, I don't think it'll change the average too much.