ESPN's Luginbill Predicts Top 5 Impact Freshmen, includes Derrick Green
We all hope / expect Green to make some impact his freshmen year, and ESPN's Luginbill agrees:
Simply put, Green is better than what Michigan has in the backfield right now and is a perfect fit for an offense that desperately wants to get back to power football and a heavy downhill run game. In addition to fitting that profile, we expect a minimal learning curve for him in the passing game and pass protection. Michigan will be better at quarterback with Devin Gardner, and Green might become Gardner's new best friend if he can take pressure off the passing game.
Link? LINK
*edit: Corrected the spelling of Luginbill's name. Man, my vision is getting to be awful. h/t Ron Utah
I think that nationally, it's about 50/50 whether a 5* recruit will become a star. There's a lot of uncertainty in projecting high schoolers.
And it's not really fair to simply look at Grady, Hopkins, and Rawls, and conclude that Michigan hasn't fared well with bulldozing RBs. Grady was a top recruit, but it turned out that he had alcohol problems, and he was also behind a guy who ended up being Michigan's all-time leading rusher. Hopkins and Rawls were both 3* recruits, so they aren't really comparable to Green as far as talent and expectations.
Not that past recruits from two offensive systems ago should tell us anything anyways, but if you go back just a little further, we did just fine with Chris Perry, B.J. Askew, and Anthony Thomas.
If that doesn't convince people it is premature to anoint any recruit "the answer" before a single carry, not sure what would be enough to do so. The failure rate of 5 and 4 star RBs is huge.
Too much hype, methinks.
I expect Derrick Green will be a great running back. At some point.
But he isn't even on campus yet. This story might be very different if he was an early enrollee, which he is not.
I am trying to think of a true freshman at Michigan who had a major immediate impact, without having been an early enrollee. Anybody?
Tate Forcier? Nope; he was an early enrollee.
Blake Countess? Taylor Lewan? Cullen Christian? I just don't even know who would be the exception that proves my rule in this regard.
I think that especially for offensive-side players, not being in school as an early enrollee makes the chances of big-time immediate impact almost nil.
If I'm wrong, I'd be happy to hear about it.
Did they enroll early?
Green is a wrecking-ball, bowling ball, rumbling stumbling man child. One of my favorite quotes about him went something to the effect of "you could put him in a Wisconsin uniform, tell people he's a running back who just finished his junior year and rushed for 1700 yards and 15 touchdowns, and they'd probably believe you."
I fully expect for Fitz take over Smith's third down back role if he's healthy. The majority of the pass protection things, catching out of the backfield, etc, are all things Fitz is ready to do. That mitigates some of the worries of having a freshman RB
Carries on first and second down will depend on how healthy Fitz is, how much of a pounding he can take, and the talent level between the two. I'm guessing it's split fairly evenly, but that's just my guess.
It seems like yesterday that Mike Hart was replacing David Underwood as a freshman.
If by yesterday you mean 50,000 years ago, then I agree
Denard was a special runner - as a QB. He had never played RB before and basically averaged 7 YPC as a RB. Fitz just didn't get the job done last year like he did in 2011.
But that's not to say he won't this year. I can't wait to see the RB competition this fall.
No disrespect intended to Denard the QB, but Denard the RB did have a much better passing QB than Fitz. A much better comparison would have been Denard's production vs Fitz's production with Gardner at QB, but obviously Fitz's injury prevented that.
but I feel fairly confident we'll find a good back out of Fitz, Green, and Deveon (no offense to Justice and Rawls...Im just not sure either is ever going to be a feature back)
Brady Hoke was actually on "The Huge Show" today (I caught it online) talking about what he felt made Green stand out from other freshmen running backs he had seen in the past actually. He talked quite a bit about Green's physicality and running ability, as well as his ability to cut and accelerate. He was very complimentary of everyone who was in the mix at RB, and said it will be a "great competition".
As I recall, Derrick Green had two seasons in high school where he rushed for over (well over, I believe) 1,000 yards and scored at least 20 TDs. It will be very intriguing to see how his already apparent skill plus development in Ann Arbor combine in the college game. If he can continue that level of productivity in college, even if it is not as a freshman, that would be awesome all the same.
I know Green is rated pretty high and rightfully so....but, he's never strapped on a helmet and played let alone practiced against college football players. We have a known quantitiy in Fitz. Yeah, he had a down year, but the year before he was pretty good and we ALL thought this past year was going to be a break out year for him. I'm saying don't be so quick to right off the RB's we already have on the roster before a new comer even steps on the field.
What are we all going to say IF Fitz holds Green and say Drake Johnson, Rawls or Hayes is the 2nd back in? Green is a Bust?
We have no idea what Fitz will look like next year. Last year, before Denards injury, he was bad but was not getting blocks and there was almost no threat of the pass. After Denards injury we were transitioning to the pro style and the blocking was still bad. That said, Fitz averaged over 5.2 yards/carry in the two games where DG was our QB (minny and nw).
I think Fitz will be pretty good with better run blocking and a real pass threat on every down. I also think Green will earn some carries, as will Johnson and Norfleet. Unfortunately, I think Rawls and Hayes will have the hardest time seeing the field.