Degenerates Thursday: CFB Betting Thread Week 7
Hello everybody,
Week 6 in review: woof, 1-3. After two weeks going a combined 11-0 it was bound to happen, and luckily the Michigan homecoming blowout more than took the sting off. And you know what, it was a 1-3 I can live with. My most confident pick, Under 54.5 in Indiana @ PSU, easily hit. I almost hit my other under in the most Iowa way possible with a missed extra point in the first quarter (which was probably caused by Kinnick's criminally short goal posts, seriously how are those legal), but alas "New Kirk Ferentz" as the announcers COULDN'T STOP SAYING tacked on just enough in the 4th to push it over. The bad Chubb injury totally threw a wrench in my UGA play, and Utah just barely failed to cover against Cal (though Goff threw 5 picks that were mostly the fault of either Goff or Cal's receivers, which makes me not so confident going forward with Utah). So as far as losing weeks go, this was boarderline confidence inspiring, and we play on.
Here are my picks for week 7:
Kentucky +2.5 vs. Auburn: Home Dog On a Thursday Night® seems like a great play once again, as the computer models and just about anyone who's watched these teams play this season like Kentucky to win this one outright. Not too much to say about this game besides the stats and the betting trends like UK here. Sorry Mr. Countess.
Alabama -4 @ Texas A&M: Interestingly enough, Alabama is considerably better against the spread on the road than they are in Tuscaloosa. The computers also absolutely love them, with most still calling Bama a top 1-3 team in the nation even with a loss. I'm not sold on the Texas A&M QB rotation and if there's one person that can scheme against something like that besides DJ Durkin, it's Kirby Smart. Derrick Henry should run wild against a questionable TAMU run D, and that'll ultimately just wear down the Aggies. Plus, like, comeonnnnnn. Do you really think this game will be that close?
Texas Tech -31 @ Kansas: You kidding me? All damn day. Baylor legitimately could have put up 100; Tech shouldn't struggle to hit 60. I usually don't touch spreads like this but Kansas is historically bad.
Temple -21.5 vs. UCF: UCF is so bad that there's a bar in Orlando that's giving away free beer during UCF games because that's the only way people will show up to watch. More free beer will be had this week, as the 0-6 Knights face off against 5-0 Temple, who's actually pretty good! UCF has been blown out by the likes of Tulane and (fake rival) UCONN. Temple is probably going to keep UCF in the single digits and I think they end up somewhere in the 30's offensively. Owls to cover.
San Jose State -2.5 vs. San Diego State: In the battle of teams you probably mix up all the time, I think San Jose State takes this running away. The advanced stats love them in this one and they've been solid against the spread this season, including giving me a cover when they played Auburn. This level of football may actually be Gorgeous Al's speed, and I'll roll with the guy. SJSU will be the only Spartan team to win this weekend.
I really want to bet on Washington -2.5 vs. Oregon because it's a remarkable parallel to the Michigan MSU game, but I still don't know quite what to make of Oregon. Teams like them puzzle me greatly.
A note: as we move into the back half of the regular season, I rely a bit more on advanced stats and how they look against Vegas spreads. Larger sample sizes make those algorithms more reliable.
I will not be betting on Michigan against the spread this weekend no matter where it moves late, as that is just tempting too much fate in a game like this. The line movement over the course of the week has been very positive for my feelings about our chances on the field, though. More than watching my small time wagers pay off (or not), I'm very excited about boarding a plane from New York to Ann Arbor tomorrow (which will be filled with UM fans because State isn't nationally relevant) and watching our boys restore balance to the universe on Saturday. Go Blue.
What are your picks for week 7?
October 15th, 2015 at 8:26 AM ^
which will be filled with UM fans because State isn't nationally relevant
lol - but true
I live in Charlotte, nearby live OSU, ND, Wiscy, Michigan fans I have never see MSU anything in Charlotte.
October 15th, 2015 at 8:33 AM ^
HORTA!
Giant man-killing rock-eating pizza!
October 15th, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^
S&P+ has Michigan as 21.3 point favourites. So we've got that going for us.
October 15th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^
All of these advanced stats techniques have a rough time dealing with non-linearities like turnovers. If Jake Rudock has trouble locating the white jerseys on Saturday or one of our RBs lays the ball on the carpet, we can forget about winning big and need to start worrying about winning at all.
Frankly, though, the biggest worry I have is that we may need a big play or two to win - meaning Jake has to connect on a couple of deep balls. We haven't done that at all this season, and I have a hard time believing we'll suddenly find a lights-out passing attack that has somehow alluded us against cupcakes.
October 15th, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
What we DON'T want is for them to be Jake's receivers.
October 15th, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
You're right, we haven't had any big plays on the ground this year. /s
October 15th, 2015 at 8:51 AM ^
SJSU -2.5 is a nice pick. I like Michigan to cover against MSU.
I totally agree with your Texas Tech pick.
Kansas is complete garbage. Last week I was stupid enough to take over 76 thinking that Kansas might score more than one TD. I needed THREE more points just to push with about 10 minutes to play. Never got them. Kansas was just about taking knees on offense, at their home stadium. Zero pride. It was pathetic.
October 15th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
That line makes NO sense. I've actually seen SJSU a few times this year and they are pretty darn good. Going to win the MWC West.
San Diego State meanwhile ---- they played Fresno 2 weeks ago in the weekly "CBSSN MWC Saturday night special that lasts until 3 AM ET with the only people on the East Coast watching being the gambling degenerates that populate this thread" game. OMG, comically horrifying.
October 15th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^
So last week I jump on the SAMgO train only to get kicked to the curb by your stellar 1-3 week which totally explains my "good fortune" betting football. The really funny part is one of your losses (the Georgia game) I actually WON because I drunkenly clicked the over instead of Ga -3. Imagine my surprise when I saw the final score pop up along with the "congradulations you won" email. Happy times.
Anyways on your plays this week the only one I struggle with is Temple -21.5 and that's only because I have a hard time imagining Temple minus anything, much less three touchdowns but we'll see.
I'll ride with you one more week but if you toss up another clunker rest assured I'm switching to different random, anonymous internet poster who I've never met and have no idea what their background is or how knowledgable they really are about football to invest my money.
That'll show ya.
October 15th, 2015 at 9:44 AM ^
Well sounds like if you make your picks drunk again you'll at least come out even!
October 15th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^
I am tempted to watch the Auburn-Kentucky game tonight. Malzahn has to have at least one game where he doesn't out-Malzahn himself this season, right? Not entirely sure it is against a Kentucky team that seems to have found its stride so far, and on Massey, I believe there are only 6 or 7 spots between these teams in the rankings so it could be a fun one.
October 15th, 2015 at 9:10 AM ^
I love Temple too. I've been riding them, Bowling Green, and Toledo all year. Texas Tech, absolutely. Kingsbury has a little of the Leach "Run up the score" philospohy when TT plays the poorer teams on their schedule.
I took Kentucky too early in the week, but I'm starting to second-guess that pick. Malzahn's teams always seem to improve as the year goes along (acknowledging that we have a small sample size to work with). Mike Stoops is a good recruiter, but I don't think anyone knows if he can coach.
October 15th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^
October 15th, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
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October 15th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
UConn is simply a better team vs. USF. Plus they should be motivated, this will be a big step toward Bowl eligiblity (something they haven't done for a few years). They should be favored by more than just HFA.
October 15th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
alone.
October 15th, 2015 at 1:48 PM ^
Really enjoying this, mostly cause I am a complete degenerate myself.
I'm on Texas Tech, gonna tail you on San Jose State.
I wanted Alabame 3 or under but missed it, thats a pass for me now.
Temple 21.5 is too high for the style they play, pass for me as well.
I am on Notre Dame (got it at 4), and Utah -6.5 as well (think they are still very undervalued). Also Ohio -4.
Lean Florida as well even with Grier out, their defense is elite.
And i know this won't be popular here, not a play for me cause of my UM love, but I don't think we should be laying 7.5-8.5. In a rivalry game with 2 good teams, thats way too many points. Only script I see for us to cover multiple scores is States O line just falls apart with the injuries, and Rudock hits a few big plays downfield against their poor secondary.
October 15th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
Does anyone now where to get Michigan Football wallpaper for my Iphone 6.
October 15th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^