CTE Found in 99% of Former NFL Players in New Study
New research found CTE in virtually every former NFL player included in the study, 110 of 111 or 99%, to be exact. It was found in 87% of players at all levels studied.
Here is a brief article from CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/25/health/cte-nfl-players-brains-study/index…
Here is the actual research from JAMA: http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2645104
Now, the article mentions right up front that this is a "convenience sample." For those not familiar with research methods, that means the authors studied what they had on hand to study, and did not randomize their sample. CTE can only be identified during autopsies, and thus they are doing autopsies of brains that have been donated for study. Those donating their brains (or their families) are, in most cases, suspicious that the player had CTE or some other neurological disease, and they donate the player's brain to confirm this. Therefore, these results may not (and probably do not) generalize to the broader football playing population.
That being said, this is really horrifying. If even a substantial percentage of NFLers develop CTE - far short of 99% - how long can the sport last in its current form? I love football, but as I tell others, I won't let my son play, and he desperately wants to. I've told him when he's in high school and "old enough" to make his own adult decision, he can. But not now (he's only 11).
P.S. This is not OT. This applies to every football player and program at every level.
I just tried hitting my hand into my head 60 times in various spots. Not really a big deal, but I guess that is me.
My kid can't play tackle until 6th grade. He probably wont want to play at all, but he liked flag football, so he might. I think an age restiction is in order (like being a certain age to ride a bike in a street, a certain agae to wrestle, a certain age to play lacrose, etc.)
I am fine with it. I am much more comfortable with it than him taking up "esports" or any other sedentary activity. The benefits of team sports and physical fitness far outweigh the risks.
In fact, he skis a lot (with helmet) and rides his bike a lot (with helmet). He also jumps on trampolines and has fallen off his share of playground equipment. All those things likely increase his chance of CTE, but I have no idea how much.
Important concept to keep in mind here, is that evidence is accumulated over time regarding an exposure response relationship. No *single* studies really provide a smoking gun. Case reports, case series, cross sectional studies, case control studies, cohort studies, rct's all contribute to the increasing burden of evidence. With the biological plausibility of football linked to CTE, this is still meaingful.
This study was a convenience sample on exposure (football) and maybe a smidge of disease as well given the convenience nature. However, given the relatively low prevalence of CTE in the general population, finding 90%+ of one analytic population to have CTE. For example, if you selected on even extremely heavy smokers, taking a sample of 100ish of them with breathing symptoms not 90% of them would have lung cancer. This study just mainly stacks on "evidence bricks" to build the foundation and rationale for future studies and funding. It's certainly not bad science, it's just part of the process for fully fleshing out an exposure response relationship.
As an epidemiologist I find the latency and threshold question fascinating. If I play football in HS, NCAA, and NFL for a combined 12 years, do my last 2 years in the NFL contribute at all to the disease process? Or does each and every impact over a certain force threshold contribute. For example, someone like Junior Seau was only retired a couple years, whereas some other players develop symptoms in their 70s.
We ballpark that most solid tumor cancers are about 30 years of latency, but that is more easily tracked due to biopsies, cell division rates, etc. It's all very interesting.
I dont think football will ever go away, but the talent pool is for sure going ot shrink.....I think the national association is already underway trying to fix this issue...I heard something that kids might only be allowed to play 7 on 7 until they get to 8th grade or something..where they can properly learn how to tackle.
Also, if you havent seen it, check out Pete Carrolls video on proper tackling...taking the adivce and tips striaght from rugby coaches and players. That should be seen by every football coach in the country.
Aside from playing football, there is most likely another factor that exists in this group that is not common in non-football players, and that is the abuse of anabolic steroids and other PEDs.
I wanted to follow up and share this link, provides some good context on the study, motivations (for those concerned the idea is to end football), and so on:
http://news.wgbh.org/2017/07/25/local-news/doctor-elaborates-new-study-…