Crystal ball on our 2009 defense vs Jimmah
I was looking back at Varsity Blue's analysis of Notre Dame this year and saw this comment:
"If Clausen can make another step forward in ‘09 (and, sadly, Weis’s track record implies that he will), the Irish offense should be able to move the ball fairly well."
This makes me wonder, with what we speculate to be a weakness in our defense (ie safety), how likely we are to neutralize Jimmah this year. I do think he is going to be improved. And he has two very good receivers in Floyd and Tate.
This is where I ask those of you smarter than me for opinion.
I expect Clausen to scorch our secondary. As you said, our safeties aren't that great and will be playing alot of young, unproven talent. We're going to have to get alot of pressure on Clausen; doesn't help that we're only returning one starter on the D-Line (Graham). We got Western Michigan the week before, and they have a good passing offense, so we'll see how our secondary holds up against them.
I think that it'll be less Clausen scorching us then Golden Tate and a few other receievers scorching us. Honestly, I see Clausen just doing his absolute best to give it to Tate every time, even on just 3 or 4 yard slants, and then just let Tate do his thing.
I admit that I didn't watch tons of ND football last year, but it doesn't seem like Clausen has the best decision making, when his first choice gets taken away he's much more prone to make a mistake (again, based on a very limited sample). Decision making does tend to improve from year to year and ND's receivers should be better this year so this could be a problem. But, I just think that it's much more likely that Clausen will beat us by helping to get first down after first down through letting his receivers run fairly easy routes, then by Clausen bombing it 30+ yards every 4 plays.
He really likes the big play there is no doubt and forcing a pass to make a 60 yard TD led many picks last year. There is no excuse for him to make the same mistakes this year and he seems to understand that very well.
Tate has the speed and Floyd has a lot of size, plus their tight end is a really solid pass catcher, so you know ND is going to go 3 and 4 wide early and try and see if they can get a match up they like.
What worries me is thinking about our nickel back versus ND's #3 receiver and if our new attacking style is going to require more man coverage.
Does anyone even know who the nickel and dime backs are going to be? This has got to be the #1 or 2 question once fall practice begins.
I think my crystal ball is broken -- all I see is this big fucking emu.
I think a good strategy to neutralize Jimmah would be to actually cover the receivers. Seriously, in order to deal with the pass rush ability of Brandon Graham and Mike Martin, I think we're going to see some of this again:
It would be nice if the coaches took one guy and said "Don't let anyone get deeper than you, ever." I really hope we can cover their one-receiver routes this year.
It would be nice if the coaches took one guy and said "Don't let anyone get deeper than you, ever." I really hope we can cover their one-receiver routes this year.
any chance our 4 off-picture players are covering their ONE receiver on that play?
tell me that wasnt a touchdown play
I think you're kidding. Right?
That 9 count doesn't include the QB. So I doubt he is kidding about the 1 player, assuming that's what your confused about.
...has Notre Dame's offense every really been that good against Michigan? Last year they had basically one good drive, and it was really just a blown coverage, and the rest of their poitns were off TO's with very short fields.
I'm not saying a big game for Clausen can't happen, but it will be interesting to watch.
Agree, but the downpour and the fact that they had a big lead probably caused Weis to get more conservative last year. They hardly called any pass plays in the second half. It's true that Weis's teams have never done that well offensively against us, though.
I think Clausen is going to rattle pretty easy in the Big House if we have a week one win (especially a big one), that'll drive the crowd. That should help us get to him if we can cover the WR's even for a second.
I hate that picture.
I don't think Clausen will be the key to a win for ND in the big house. I well rounded team with a running game good enough to keep defenses honest will do much more for us.
You're level-headed.
MGoBlog attracts some of the best fans, even if they're from other programs
kudos
thanks, yes its easily the best UM board I have seen
The offensive line is the key. Notre Dame hasn't had a decent running game since before Charlie Weis got to South Bend, and their pass-protection has been pretty suspect as well. This year, he has so much experience (and highly ranked recruits) on the O-Line, that if Notre Dame can't run the ball this year, they never will. ("Never" meaning until Weis is replaced, that is).
It should be very decent and maybe even good if everyone is on the same page early in the year.
Very good RBs with depth
A unproven but exciting option at FB finally
New Oline coordinator/coach
New Running back coach
It will be very hard to continue to recruit good RBs if they don't start putting up the yards on the field.
Serious question as you are the Notre Dame expert:
Would Weis actually use that running game?
I wouldn't call myself an expert, more like well informed.
But its a resounding yes. It makes our offense better, it would prevent opponents from looking at us one dimensionally, it will keep opponents honest on defense and opens up many more plays in the play book.
Weis has made it very obvious that he is committed to getting the running game just as powerful as the passing game, which is where it has to begin.
And it is always the best option to run the clock, a decent running game last year could have lead to 3 more wins last year, imo. And it sounds like Weis would have agreed with that at the end of the season.
Aside from the win-loss column:
1. a DB emerges in the ND game who negates Golden Tate in single coverage
2. Pryor gets comes under strong constant pressure and makes mistakes
3. Boren gets planted on his ass
First step to beating ND, is beating WMU without showing our entire new defensive scheme.
If our defense can contain WMU and save some of the new schemes highlighting variations of 3-man to 4-man fronts and "Deathbacker" and "The New and Improved Stevie Brown" it will be a complete suprise for Clausen and force him to make those quick decisions (which he has yet to prove he can do). I believe that's how we would get to him... not letting him (and Weiss) prepare for what's coming.
I really don't think we'll have the luxury of a choice in that matter. GERG will be lucky to have his base package serviceable for WMU.
so I would hope that our O can put up lots of points to ease the pressure on the D. While Hiller is coming back at QB he lost all of his WR so that may help. IMHO, if the secondary is healthy I think we are in for a surprise especially since the guy who usually let people past him will no longer be a safety.
ND will be in for a surprise with some of our blitz packages as I sure Gerg will be saving some wrinkles especially for the "chicken of the sea", sorry Charlie.
I know the D looked bad in the spring game, but they have always looked bad against the spread. And really, the proliferation of the spread has changed the definition of a "good defense."
I looked at the top fifty points allowed for last year, and Oklahoma didn't make it. ND did at #43, allowing 22.3 ppg. Duke was #50 at 23.4. I guess Oklahoma did pretty good for not making the top fifty in points allowed.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/stats/2008/divia/team/sc…
Yes, Champion Florida was #5 with 12.8, but Iowa only allowed a half-point more a game, at 13.3, and certainly couldn't be mistaken for a championship-caliber team.
I appreciate defense, but Oklahoma showed that you don't have to finish in the top ten or even top fifty defenses to make the NC game.
Anyway, I don't see ND beating UM this year. It is a revenge game for UM, and usually, in the UM/ND series, when one team beats the other as badly as ND beat UM last year, the other team gets its revenge the next year.
I expect ND and Weis to come in arrogant and leave whining about how they "should have won."
"as badly as ND beat UM last year"
Wasn't UM still very much in the game until the Grady fumble on the non-call when his forward progress had been stopped? I seem to remember despite the 97 turnovers, UM still had a chance.
UM ran the ball all over ND. If their defense isn't any better, I should think UM will be able to put up some points on the ground. They're replacing something like 5 starters on that defense too.
Bingo. I think it will be a great game. Both teams have a lot to prove.
I think if we get a few hits on Jimmy it will really rattle him. This was shown in 07 when he came to play. He had trouble handling the ball and seemed flustered in the pocket. Some of these problems go away with experience but I feel ND will have to rely on other players.
Michigan 24
ND 17
The poster above who mentioned that Jimmy makes mistakes after his first option isn't there is on the right track. It's been a problem the past couple years. I think that was a combination of a) his youth/inexperience and b) an awful offensive line. This year I expect Jimmy to be very impressive and the offensive line should be very good. When he has time, he's very very accurate.
I've said this before, but looking at it as objectively as I can, I just think things could get pretty ugly for UM's secondary in this game.
On the other hand, ND's weakness will be a young defensive line. Your best hope is to beat up on our defensive line and keep our offense off the field.
Just my opinion.
Jimmah throws a terrific fade, and a damn good go route. His deep post isn't bad either. Other than that, or if he's pressured, he's pretty bad. See his stats against teams with a winning record for proof.
is more due to his O-Line's inability to block. Very few quarterbacks can succeed without a good line, especially when they're young. The only reasons Brady Quinn was successful with equally bad blocking were due to his toughness and his experience, and even he got killed a few times against good defensive lines (Georgia Tech, Michigan...). If Notre Dame's line is better this year (as it should be), Jimmy's performance will improve significantly as well.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=200811080010
I remember watching this game laughing at how bad Jimmah is when he can't just stand back a fling the fade or go.
Pick a bad game by a true sophomore against a top 5 defense as proof that he can only make 2 or 3 throws.
The knocks on Clausen are his consistency and his decisionmaking (especially when pressured). Both are things you'd expect from a freshman/sophomore. They absolutely need to improve for ND to take a leap this year. A run game would help him too.
Clausen:
Threet stats:
2008 also includes this game against Hawaii 22/26 | 401 | 15.4 | 5 | 0
I'm not saying Threet is better, he's 99% likely not. However, Clausen hasn't really been that much better.
As for your run game comment,
Threet stats:
| Year | Comp% | YPA | TD% | INT% | Efficiency | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 51.0% | 5.53 | 4.5% | 3.5% | 105.26 | 2-7 (toss out NW(stats included in totals), OSU, Minnesota) |
"So if we can establish a mentality where we can run the ball with power, the whole offense opens up," Weis said. "Now you have play action, now you can throw a drop back. But the first thing is first, you have to be able to run the ball with power, and I think that we've gotten away from that a little bit and we're trying to get back to that."How'd that work out last year? With 100 returning Oline starts this year, I can't wait to hear his excuses this time around. My official take on Charlie Weis
What's missing from your stats are the additional 130 cmps while nearly doubling his attempts (245-440). I am pretty sure that the more a QB throws the ball the chance he throws an interception also goes up.
Do not compare Clausen to Threet unless you are trying to compare the success of a QB in a given system. Their position maybe QB but they were required to do some very different things.
And your boxed quote for Coach Weis is nothing more than the validation that the running game was not close to adequate in anyones eyes least of all our head coach.
1) Int% TD% This accounts for additional throws. Notice the %
Graham Harrell
Freshman, 0 int on 55 throws, INT% = 0.0%
Sophomore, 11 int on 616 throws, INT% = 1.79%
Junior, 14 int on 713 throws, INT% = 1.96%
Senior, 9 int on 626 throws, INT% = 1.44%
So, uh, yeah.
2) I'm relatively certain I was comparing QBs on their passing stats. What different things are required in this sense? And before you say Threet only threw bubble screens, I think you should count the number of screens Jimmah threw.
3) That Weis quote is from preseason 2008. Which shows how awesome he was at improving it.
1) My mistake I did miss-read that
2) I don't think we will agree on this but I do see a fade to the corner of the end zone as being superior to a 6 yard slant route. They both can get you 6 pts, but to each his own system.
3) I know exactly where it was from and no it shows that he identified it as an issue there is no prediction of 200 rushing yards per game or a guarantee of any kind. All that quote says is that it was an issue and the timing of it meant it was going to be a point of emphasis by the offensive coordinator. He is now the head coach at Miami(OH).
1) No worries.
2) I think a slant is much higher risk than a fade, as I can't recall many fades being picked off. A fade is definitely prettier though, and makes perfect sense when the receiver is Floyd, Tate, or Braylon sized. A great fade is undefendable, but mostly useful within 15 yards. Being able to throw the slant will serve a QB much better over the long haul.
3) I think the problem was Latina, not Haywood. Both are gone though (right?). It seems that Charlie is terrific at identifying problems, fixing them, not so much yet.
There were a lot of things wrong with that game, and they weren't even confined to the field
Jimmah is really streaky, but can get rolling when he gets in rhythm. He might start a game 2-of-10 for about 4 yards, and then suddenly he goes 10-of-11 with 3 TDs. Graham needs to keep him on the run so that he doesn't get comfortable. He does not improvise well.