Comparing B1G QBs this season so far
I was looking at B1G QB stats and figured it was interesting enough. All stats are from the NCAA (so not opponent adjusted) except QBR (which is adjusted) from ESPN and fumbles from ESPN game logs. I didn't consider backups or starters at the beginning of the season, so for their respective teams I consider Kim (MSU), Jackson (Ind.) and Hill (Iowa), whom despite appearing in 6 games doesn't have enough stats to qualify to be counted in NCAA lists or ESPN's QBR season list. but see below.
1. JJ McCarthy (Mich.) -- He leads the country in QBR, second in the NCAA"s passing efficiency, 3rd in the country in yards/attempt. He also leads the B1G in rush yards/carry (sacks included). What holds him back from an even bigger gap is that his 3 fumbles is one more than the median of the 14 QBs counted, and he doesn't have shiny totals because his 20.3 attempts per game is higher than only Haarberg (Minn.) and Hill. The other thing to note is his consistency. He had 1 bad QBR game (Bowling Green at 11.2). His second worst was Indiana, but at 84.4 if that were a season average it would rank 8th in the country. All the rest, 91.9 or above, would rank 1st.
2. Kyle McCord (OSU) -- He's a clear second in the B1G, ranking 6th in QBR. He's 15th in the country in passing efficiency with 9.7 yards/attempt, 10th in the country. If you're like me you wonder what would happen if his opponents' secondary coaches would whisper in their safeties' ears, "stay deeper than deep." He only has 1 interception and 2 fumbles. His completion percentage, 64.1% is ok, and his -1.2 yards/carry is second worst in the B1G. Perhaps, that's why Day brought in Brown to run the ball at the goal line against Purdue.
3-4. Drew Allar (PSU) and Taulia Tagovailoa (Mary.) -- Clearly 3rd & 4th in the B1G. How you rank them is a matter of taste/weights. Allar is 24th in the country in QBR, Taovailoa 26th. Allar is 43rd in efficiency, Taovailoa 42nd. Allar has a better completion percentage at 65.2% to 63.9%, but weaker yards/attempt 6.9 to to 7.7. Allar hasn't thrown an interception yet to 12 touchdowns. Tagovailoa has 5 interceptions but 16 touchdowns. They're about the same in rushing, 2.3 yards/carry and 2.5.
5. Gavin Wimsatt (Rutg) -- I know, right? His QBR is 63rd in the country, 15 QBs in the country better than the next B1G QB (Kaliakmanis, Minn.). He has one of the worst passing efficiency figures in the B1G at 114.2, but he's 3rd in rushing at 3.8 yards/carry with 4 touchdowns and 0 fumbles. His yards/attempt at 6.5 is in the middle of the range of the non-B1G 4 (4.4 to 7.2), though his 50.9% completion percentage is probably what you're thinking of when you think of Wimsatt, if not some of his 4 interceptions.
6-13. It's just a mess. As noted Kaliakmanis is 6th in QBR (78th in country), despite an abysmal efficiency statistic, 2nd weakest in the B1G among the starters at 110.8. Perhaps, ESPN's opponent adjustments are doing work here. To his credit he hasn't fumbled yet. Haarberg (Neb.) is running 5.1 yards/carry, but also has 6 fumbles. Altmyer (Ill.) has the best efficiency figure of this mass, though 127.7 isn't anything to write folk songs about. Card (Purdue) is the other guy with an efficiency statistic above 120 (121.1), but he also has 6 fumbles to go with 5 interceptions. To just be complete for their national QBR rankings: Morcecai (Wisc.) 82nd; Altmyer 88th; Haarbertg 94th; Card 96th; Bryant (NW) 103rd; Kim (MSU) 10th; and Jackson 114th.
14. Deacon Hill (Iowa) -- Singling him out for the sheer majesty of his ineptness. His 70 attempts and 9 rushes aren't enough to get ESPN to publish his season QBR. But, he's the anti JJ McCarthy, with 1 good QBR game against Western Michigan at 83.1. The rest read 1.5, 6.6, 23.8, 2.0, and 6.2. For perspective, the QB last in the country in QBR for a season is 17.7 (Alex Flinn of East Carolina, ranking 134th). His passing efficiency figure is 79.6, 40.2 points below the second lowest of the starters in the B1G. His 9 carries for -53 yards is not going to save him. He also has 3 fumbles.
October 15th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
JUST WIN BABY!!!
October 15th, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
If he keeps playing like this JJ is going to surpass Drake Maye on draft boards. I'm sure some scouts already have him rated higher. He is playing himself into being a top 5 pick.
October 15th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
I agree with your post. Enjoy each week as it is looking very likely that JJ will be in the league next year!
October 15th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
Imagine the reality of this accolade:
DEACON HILL -- B1G Championship Game Starting QB
October 15th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Why not just go for it all: Broyles Award winner Brian Ferentz
October 15th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
because the original statement is likely to end up true
October 15th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
I mean, we did have Rex Grossman: Superbowl starting QB.
October 15th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
JJ is the best choice to draft for qb this year although I haven’t looked at Maye much. But I’d take JJ over Caleb Williams and that’s off potential not current play but both are unbelievable talents and although it’s a deep class, those two are the headliners, I just don’t think the rest of the NFL fans know it yet,
October 15th, 2023 at 1:57 PM ^
I’d definitely be curious to see what JJ’s stats would be if he were plugged into USC’s offense. Would he have similar stats to Caleb Williams?
I do wonder if the only major difference between the two is the system they play in, and that USC does not even remotely play complementary football, so with that in mind Caleb is essentially forced to do more.
October 15th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
McCord has definitely seen the improvement you hope to see for a top prospect just getting real playing time this year. You can say he has all the right parts in place so his numbers are inflated, but I think he’s turned into a good QB who gives Ohio State a great shot at winning the B1G. Until the B3G (PSU, OSU, UM) play one another, we won’t know how opponent invariant his performance has been.
October 15th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
He's definitely gotten a lot better and looks like a good QB. OSU does love padding stats though. I think Kyle played decently late into the 4th yesterday even though they were up big. I don't have the actual snap counts, but OSU seems to leave their starters in longer.
October 15th, 2023 at 4:13 PM ^
but OSU seems to leave their starters in longer
Good! Let them get worn out by the end of the season.
October 15th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^
Next week will tell the story. PSU does like to go after the QB and leave their CBs on man, at least in the games I saw. I can easily see OSU ripping their D apart and it starts with how accurate McCord is and how much pressure he can handle.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
If PSU leaves their CBs one on one with those OSU WRs, they could get smoked. It's easy to do against lesser competition but they better not try that against OSU and UM
October 15th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
Yeah, if we're being fair, McCord has really been solid for this being his 1st year. The other thing is that I really don't think you can compare QBs based on different schedules.
October 16th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
His numbers look good on paper but the eye test shows that he's still very shaky and reliant on big plays to boost his stats. I've watched every OSU game this year except last week due to conflict with the Michigan game. It seems like based on OSU fan reactions every week, many seem to agree with the eye test. Despite putting up decent numbers on paper, there are threads every week about needing a new QB because anyone who watches closely know that he's not playing as well as his numbers would indicate.
Accuracy is inconsistent on all throws (from short to deep). Not good while facing pressure, has a tendency to throw off his backfoot in panic when pressured, leading to some ugly, forced throws. He's heavily reliant on Marvin Harrison Jr (with MHJr making most of the plays happen). He's accounted for 28% of his completions, 36% of his total yardage, and 45% of his TDs.
I'll say that the one game that really impressed me was the ND game. He made some tough throws down the stretch and showed he might be a gamer when things are on the line. Other than that, he's been pretty average to below average given the talent he has surrounding him. That is still probably good for being the 3rd or 4th best QB in the B1G.
October 15th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
McCarthy is by far the most polished. Allar is green around the gills and Mccords throws look like the balls going end over end. I think Allar will be a record setter eventually at PSU. Take away all world receivers and I don’t know what to make of McCord. He doesn’t plant his feet and his throwing motion resembles a shot put. I look for OSU to expose Allar as the young man he is and us to do the same to McCord. The rest of the big is meh minus good Maryland or bad Maryland.
October 15th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
I dunno about Allar being a record setter at PSU. Franklin does a wonderful job of getting his QBs killed by under developing his OL.
October 15th, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
PSU records. I should have clarified.
October 15th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
Like everything else to this point, Michigan still has to demonstrate they can maintain the level of play once the competition stiffens, although no reason to believe they won’t.
That being said, JJs season to date QBR ranks 8th all time at the moment (or at least ~20 yrs since that seems how far back the list goes) Some pretty good QBs on the list
1M. JonesALA 2020
2K. MurrayOKLA 2018
3J. BurrowLSU 2019
4T. TagovailoaALA 2019
5R. WilsonWIS 2012
6A. LuckSTAN 2010
7T. TagovailoaALA 2018
8J.J. McCarthyMICH 2023
This team is really a joy to watch despite boring games. I watched a lot of the NC State- Duke and UNC-Miami games last night (I’m not necessarily a sicko, just grew up in NC and a Duke and NC State alum) and the amount of penalties, bad turnovers, poor execution, etc. in those games from all four teams really stood out against just how clinical Michigan is playing.
October 15th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Agree that we are certainly spoiled this season. So many times teams that I root for (bet on) drive me crazy when their QB misses open guys are make awful decisions.
I think in my UNC B school grad class we had 4-5 Dook undergrad grads.
October 16th, 2023 at 1:13 PM ^
What I take away from this list is that Harbaugh could have 2 QBs rank top 10 all time in QBR and Urban/Ryan Day have zero.
October 15th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
Yet Iowa still went to Madison and won the game. WTF? I hate when I lose bets that I shouldn't 🤪
October 15th, 2023 at 9:52 PM ^
The whole B1G West is GARBAGE
October 15th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
JJ still needs to work on his poise under pressure, because PSU is going to send a lot of it.
Teams are getting smarter now . . . when JJ rolls away from pressure he has a tendency to then roll back in the other direction once he is being chased. Indiana had somebody back there to greet him on that second roll-back when he did that a couple of times, resulting in a sack.
He's not going to be able to just outrun some of the upcoming defenses like he does now.
October 15th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
The best QB in the B1G plays for Michigan.
What a time.
October 15th, 2023 at 7:00 PM ^
We had a long string of NFL QBs, hopefully this is the start of many