College Football Playoff Predictor - ESPN

I think you hit the nail on the head with "losing early is better than losing late."  The committee will always favor teams that are playing the best at the end of the year provided their won-loss record is in line. 

And if you've watched Oregon the last few weeks, they seem to be going in the wrong direction. It's just a matter of time before they pick up another loss or two.  They've had some close calls lately

Did what? The math? Because you didn’t specify.

Know what? That you can make the numbers say pretty much whatever you want them to? I already knew that.

This matrix says UM has a 17% chance of making the playoffs, even if we lose to MSU & OSU. I guarantee that number is much closer to 0. If you did it, you would know.

Seriously ? Dominated - obliterated OSU ?  It was 35-28 and OSU was driving for the tying TD late when Stroud threw a bonehead Interception.  OSU put up over 600+ of offense on the Oregon D.  C'mon man - obliterated ?

Don't be a p#$$y. It's better to go and lose than to never go. 

Not me. We need the playoff appearance if we're going even think about getting back to recruiting prominence. I don't give two shits if Alabama kills us by 30 at least we had the opportunity. 

It's not as absurd as you think it is.

Let's say Michigan finishes 11-1 with a loss to Ohio State and OSU beats whatever crap comes out of the West.

Georgia beats Bama in the SEC Championship.

Georgia and OSU are locks. Even if Oklahoma wins out, Michigan would just need Cincinnati, Oregon, and I guess Wake Forest to lose once. Unless you think the committee is taking 12-1 Pitt over 11-1 Michigan?

If Georgia beats Alabama, then Alabama is out. They're not taking a two loss team until either the playoff expands or you find yourself with a two-loss SEC champion. 

But the only way Michigan makes it into the CFP with losing to OSU and not making the BTCG is if there is massive chaos elsewhere, as you somewhat alluded to. 

1) Cincy would need to lose or keep winning really ugly against bad teams. 

2) Oklahoma would probably need to lose once in the regular season and then again in the Big XII title game. Or they would have to just play like crap the rest of the season and drop an ugly game somewhere that the committee just can't forget about. But if they go undefeated, no matter how ugly it is, they're in. 

3) Oregon would need to lose again. They stand a very good chance of making the CFP if they run the table from here. 

4) An ACC champion with at least one loss. If Wake Forest runs the table, like Oklahoma, it doesn't matter if its ugly or not. They're in.

5) Georgia would have to beat Alabama. If Alabama wins the SEC and Georgia is undefeated otherwise, they're both in. 

6) On top of all of this, OSU would need to keep dominating down the stretch, Michigan would have to kick its play up a notch, and they'd need to lose to OSU by 1-3 points in a back and forth game where both teams look on fire and either one had a legit chance of winning in the final minutes of the fourth quarter. Michigan would have to play so well in that game that they'd essentially be daring the CFP to leave them out. 

Alabama & Georgia are NOT locks for two spots. Another loss for Bama and they're out.

It does not justify expanding the playoffs, either. Half of the regular season remains to be played, plus conference championship games. Consider the second half of the season to be your expanded playoff, as most schedules are set up this way to begin with having mostly interdivisional games remaining. Most teams will be eliminated after all of that to the point where the 2 or 3 (and rarely a 4th) best teams can be clearly delineated from the others. A 4-team playoff is more than sufficient after all of those games are played to ensure the best two teams have the opportunity to face each other in the championship final.

Every year since the CFP was created, there has never been an undefeated team that was a major conference champion (or Notre Dame) that  has not made it to the CFP. In only 2 years has a 1-loss conference champion not made it to the CFP (2014, after which Big 12 instituted it's own conference championship game because they had 2 teams tied which diluted their prospects; and 2018, when OSU got left out so an undefeated meatball Notre Dame team could be invited).

Opening it up to more teams just invites 2-or-more loss conference champions (a.k.a. riff-raff), 1-loss teams who either lost their conference championship or didn't qualify for their conference championship (e.g. 2015 Iowa & OSU, 2017 Wisconsin, 2020 TAMU, Indiana & USC) and should be eliminated on that basis, or teams that are in non-Power 5 conferences.

I agree Don, but I could see it happening @11-1. As you inferred the most likely scenario is an Oklahoma loss (They have a tough remaining schedule) and Cincinnati losing one. Combined with not being embarrassed by OSU. I'm hoping after we beat MSU we will be @ 2 or 3 in the CFP playoff rankings which will show if the committee actually respects our measurables.  

Not 77% but a maybe in the 30-40% range.