CFB: P5 Conferences - Potential CCG & CFP participants
There's been a lot of discussion around one topic - and, this thread is intended to discuss something else. There are two weeks remaining in the regular conference season - and, the teams that can compete in the P5 Conference Championship Games (CCGs) is narrowing. Those CCGs will definitely influence the CFP participants - in the four team playoff.
This is just a topic to chat / speculate about football - nothing more.
Big 12: This seems pretty simple. Texas should be in the Big 12 CCG against a team "To be determined". Texas has one of the better OOC wins this season - defeating Bama in September. If Texas wins the Big 12 CCG they should be in "good shape" for the CFP. I don't see Texas being "invited" the the CFP if the other four P5 Champs are undefeated. However, if Bama wins the SEC (with a defeat of Georgia) - what role does Texas' head to head win over Bama mean?
ACC: The CCG will most likely be Florida State vs Louisville. And, if FSU loses - my guess is, the ACC won't have a representative in the CFP.
SEC: The CCG is set - it's Georgia vs Bama. If Bama wins - will there be room in the CFP for a one-loss, non conference champ named Georgia? It depends on what happens elsewhere - but, will be fun to watch.
The Pac-12. It's looking like Washington vs Oregon in their CCG. Oregon seems to be the strongest one loss team in college football - and Washington's played a number of Top 25 teams this season. I don't see how an undefeated Washington is left out of the CFP.
B1G: It's going to most likely be an undefeated B1G East division champ (Michigan or OSU) playing - (most likely) Iowa. If the B1G East / CCG winner is undefeated - they're a lock for the CFP.
Usually, I like chaos. So this year - what might it look like?
Bama defeats Georgia. Texas wins the Big 12. FSU is undefeated and wins the ACC. Washington wins out. Michigan defeats OSU and prevails in the B1G CCG.
In this scenario - you'd have three undefeated teams - the B1G Champ (Michigan), the Pac Champ (Washington), and ACC Champ (FSU). Then - it would be a question of Bama (SEC Champ) or Texas (Big 12 Champ) - and, Texas defeated Bama "head to head" earlier this season. Would the SEC not have a seat at the "CFP table"?
Then, there's the "almost" nuclear option - Michigan wins the B1G, Bama defeats Georgia, Louisville defeats FSU, Oregon defeats Washington, and Texas loses to another Big 12 team. Then, IMO - the Big 12 is out - and - the discussion becomes very interesting.
What do you think will happen - or - would you like to see?
Go Blue!
November 14th, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
An SEC team won't be left out even if Bama beats Georgia. They will make up a reason, no matter what else happens.
They will say that Bama beat the #1 team in Georgia, so it does not matter that they lost to Texas at home. That will be their story.
Count on it.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
If Bama wins, they are in. In any other year where there aren't a bunch of 12-0 teams, Georgia would be in too.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
Or they just say it was an early season loss and so it doesn't get weighed as heavily.
That said, Texas is a huge brand and I don't think they could keep Texas out just to get Bama in. I think another team would be thrown onto its sword.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
I do think you probably also have to consider the degree to which Alabama has improved across the season.
November Alabama appears to be much stronger than September Alabama.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
How badly could Michigan get screwed in such a scenario? Would the NCAA step forward in solidarity with the Big Ten and accuse M of some rules violations in order to get Texas, Washington, Alabama and FSU in?
November 15th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
Michigan has to win the Game to guarantee their spot. If they lose, I could absolutely see them getting squeezed out.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
If Bama beats Georgia, that's going to be considered the best win any team has had and I couldn't really argue. Beating an undefeated team in November/December is rightfully considered a bigger deal than doing it in September. In this case, it would be a UGa team that hasn't lost in two years.
Not sure what happens to Texas in that scenario though.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
Wielding their vast media apparatus as an instrument of aggression against a school they are welcoming to the conference next year is as SEC as it gets
November 14th, 2023 at 9:13 AM ^
My preferred outcomes involve Michigan, Georgia, FSU, Texas, and Oregon winning out.
In that scenario, Texas will get the last spot because they beat an SEC team on the road.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
I want UGA, FSU, UW and us (natch) to win out because that's the only way to ensure Bama and the backdoor Buckeyes don't make it.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:17 AM ^
What I think will happen:
UM, Georgia, Texas and FSU win out. Oregon wins out and beats Washington (who is going to lose to Oregon St this weekend, btw) in the Pac 12 CCG. This will result in the following arrangement in the CFP:
1) Georgia 2) Michigan 3) FSU and 4) Oregon
What I would like to see:
Georgia loses at UT and in the SEC CCG and are out of the playoffs, Bama is the SEC rep in the CFP. FSU and Washington win out and are in the playoffs. This would likely result in the following CFP:
1) Michigan 2) FSU 3) Washington 4) Bama
(although I would not be totally shocked to see Bama leapfrog UW and end up as the 3 seed)
I think UM's chances of winning it all in the second scenario is MUCH better than in the first.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
I think the most interesting scenario is the one you laid out. Undefeated FSU, Washington, and B1G champ, 1 loss SEC champ Alabama, 1 loss B12 champ Texas.
This is where the influence of ESPN comes in. I'm not sure how you make an argument that Alabama is the "better" team. Here is what the CFP website says...
"Establish a selection committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head‐to‐head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie‐breaker; apply specific guidelines)."
ESPN would obviously not want a CFP without a team from their headline conference but could really make a rational argument that the strength of schedule is so much better for Alabama that it trumps Texas winning decisively head to head on Alabama's home field?
November 14th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
As for Alabama vs. Texas, as you point out, head-to-head will only be used as a tie-breaker. If the committee values Bama's resume better than Texas' resume, Bama will get in regardless of head-to-head. (And it doesn't need to have anything to do with SEC/ESPN.)
- Bama's best wins: Miss, Tenn, LSU, and in this scenario GA.
- Texas' best wins: Bama, K-St (barely), and (fill in the blank Big12 CCG opponent).
Bama's best 4 wins would be better than Texas' 2nd (possibly 3rd) best win.
Bama will get in regardless of H2H because their body of work is more impressive than Texas'.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^
Why aren't you including Alabama as one of the best wins for Texas?
Tennessee is probably going to lose again this weekend so their stock is dropping.
November 14th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
I did. ???
November 14th, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
How anyone (not saying you, Chuck) can have head-to-head not be the first tiebreaker is insane to me. You should parse "resumes" for teams that haven't played one another.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
Texas bullied Alabama at night in Tuscaloosa. They were a better team when the two played, no doubt.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^
Agree. What's the point of playing games against good teams if head to head match-ups aren't extremely high up the list of tiebreakers.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
If the committee puts Alabama above Texas, if both are 12-1, then they'll prove beyond any argument why Michigan's schedule this and last season were the way to go.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
Unfortunately with that loss to Oklahoma, Texas is a bit backed into a corner right now and needs help from another conference to make it in, because we still have four conferences with at least one undefeated team. If that continues, Texas will be on the outside looking in.
What I'd be curious about is if Oregon beats Washington in the Pac-12 title game, but then Georgia, Michigan/OSU, and FSU all hold serve and win out. Then how do you decide who makes it in between Texas and Oregon?
Texas will have that win over Alabama to hang its hat onto, its only loss being an uber-competitive back and forth rivalry affair against an Oklahoma team that probably goes 10-2, but Oregon right now looks like the best one-loss team, and its only loss is on the road by less than a FG against a currently undefeated team with a Heisman front-runner. I bet Oregon gets the nod, because Texas has had a few close calls. Oregon....really hasn't.
Another thing to consider: what if Alabama beats Georgia. What mental gymnastics will the CFP commit to make sure Georgia still sneaks in at the 3/4 spot? Even if FSU and Washington remain undefeated, I bet one of them still has to sweat out the selection show and wonder if Georgia will be put in over them. That whole two-time defending national champion mantra still carries a ton of weight, even though previous years shouldn't reflect on this year's rankings.
I'm going to guess Georgia makes that all irrelevant in three week's time. So my final guess at the CFP:
1) Georgia
2) Michigan
3) FSU
4) Oregon
---
If Alabama manages to beat Georgia, then my guess is:
1) Michigan
2) Alabama
3) FSU
4) Georgia
It sickens me to put that down, because I think Oregon should get the nod over Georgia, but the CFP committee won't be able to help themselves.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
I think the scenario where Oregon beats Washington is less chaotic than the scenario where Washington loses to Oregon State but beats Oregon in the P12 championship game.
Oregon passes the eye test and a late season win over Washington would fix their only real blemish. Washington has looked shaky and could easily lose to Oregon State, but what do you do with a 1-win Pac-12 champ who has a bunch of top 25 wins?
November 14th, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
This post has entirely too many TLAs (Three Letter Acronyms)
November 14th, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
NTTAWWT
November 14th, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
The big question, and one that has the potential to really piss off some teams/conferences, is if b1g champ is unbeaten, fsu champ is unbeaten, the p12 champ is an unbeaten Washington or one loss Oregon, Texas wins the B12 as a one loss champ, and Alabama beats Georgia.
b1g champ is in, fsu is in, but who out of the other 3 would be in? If Washington goes unbeaten they’d be in. Then you’d have a one loss Texas and a one loss Alabama (who Texas beat) vying for that last spot. Texas should get it, considering the head to head win, which should leave the SEC on the outside looking in.
Oregon is the top one loss team right now, so if they win out and win the p12, then it’s 3 teams vying for 2 spots. Whichever of those 3 teams they left out would puss off not just that fan base, but that conference as well. IMO, they should leave out Alabama and the SEC in that scenario, but I doubt they will.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
I would love to see the SEC left out of the playoff, but that's highly unlikely.
Would love Michigan vs Texas and Washington vs FSU
November 14th, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
I think for our rooting interests we’d like to have Texas, FSU, UGA, and (obviously) UM to win out and for Oregon to beat Washington. That would mean undefeated UM and UGA battling for the 1 seed (likely UGA because “schedule”) and probably FSU as 3 seed and Texas as 4 seed. Personally I see Texas and FSU as the most beatable of the CFP contenders and would prefer to match with them in the semis than Washington, Oregon, Georgia, or Alabama.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
Oregon and Washington are both ahead of Texas in the CFP rankings right now, so unless one of them loses in the regular season, I don't think Texas has much chance of jumping over either of them.
I agree that Texas and FSU are teams that I am reasonably confident UM would beat.
Of the teams still vying for a playoff spot, I would rank UM's chances thusly:
UM probably better than: Ohio State, Texas, FSU
Push: Washington, Alabama
UM probably worse than: Georgia, Oregon
November 14th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
Does no one else believe the Suckeyes will be allowed into the CFP, regardless of the outcome of The Game? Is there not a love affair with those poor little darlings who were the victims of such wanton, overwhelming evil from the school up north?
November 14th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
If you have four undefeated conference champions, which is a very distinct possibility this year, there is almost no way you can let OSU in if they lose to Michigan. You'd have to have FSU and/or Washington win out, but look flat out ugly down the stretch. FSU would have to barely survive against North Alabama this weekend, barely get by UF, and then squeak out an ugly win in the ACC title game.
They would have to look absolutely horrendous on the eye test, and only win because their opponent was that much worse.
Remember that OSU got in last year only because there were no one-loss conference champions. UM and Georgia were undefeated, K-State, Utah and Clemson were all two loss teams. If any of them were one-loss conference champions, all of them would've gotten in over OSU. No questions asked. But they were all two losses, and OSU's only loss was to an undefeated #2 Michigan. Alabama also had two losses so they were already out.
There really wasn't much of a choice to be made. OSU got in by default.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
You all are dreaming.
If #6 Oregon beats #5 Wash they switch places.
#1 OSU losing to #3 Michigan also swaps so PAC12 not going to CFP.
There is no way they drop OSU out of top 4 if Washington, Tex, Oregon are all 1 loss.
If and only if Bama beat GA then it's Bama, GA, Mich, FSU.
Unless the bottom 2 of #3 Michigan or #4 Florida State lose, PAC12 not getting in.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
I don't think OSU's resume would stack up well with Washington, Oregon or Texas. It would be extremely tight between these 4 teams if only 1 could make it in.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
Right, if UM beats OSU, what's OSU's best win then. 2 loss PSU? ND?
November 14th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
For OSU, would their best win be a two loss PSU, a three loss ND, or four loss Maryland / Rutgers?
It could arguably be a four loss Youngstown State.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
Georgia is due for an L. They have been playing ... well when they need to, but sleep walking when not. I think they could lose to this Bama team that is getting hot at the right time.
UW is undefeated, but... they've scraped by an awful lot against mixed quality teams.
FSU is similar to UW --- though I think the Pac12 has more to offer than FSU. FSU beat LSU and UW beat Oregon. Oregon is the better win it appears, even if LSU is better now than they were to start.
The real nuclear option is the B10West winner wins the title game.. then you have 2 1 loss B10 teams and a b10 winner and I think all 3 possibly get shut out of the top 4... unless everyone loses. it could be a nice healthy mess.
But usually things clear up and there's only really 1-2 teams "left out" with a reasonable case.
My hope is for the easiest path which I think is below:
Michigan
Bama
FSU
Texas
November 14th, 2023 at 10:20 AM ^
I have considered the possibility that dirty Iowa could blow up the whole thing for the B1G.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
I don't think Iowa has a shot in hell at beating either team, but if I were to say one is more likely, taking off my maize and blue glasses, I think its OSU is *more* likely - e.g. 1% vs 3%.. only because their offense tends to put up halves like they did against Rutgers... not likely at all, and certainly not in a big game with time to prep etc...
For all we talk about Iowa's defense, PSU beat them 30-0. have you SEEN Psu's offense? IF you have, let Franklin know.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
lol, SEC not in the playoff. No chance in hell, they're already pushing for two.
November 14th, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
ESPN is already lobbying hard for the SEC, there was some talk I so posted online claiming UofM doesn't deserve the playoffs because of signgate.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
I kind of want to see undefeated Michigan, Washington, and Florida State. Plus a 1-loss Big 12 champ Texas and a 1-loss SEC champ Alabama. That way we can watch people tie themselves into knots over why Bama still deserves the playoffs over any of them.
November 14th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
This is the Truly Nuclear scenario:
SEC - Bama beats UGA. Both 12-1.
BigTen - UM/OSU winner loses to Iowa. UM/OSU both 12-1, Iowa 11-2.
ACC- Louisville beats FSU. Both 12-1.
BigXII - Texas wins out, is 12-1.
PAC12 - UW and UO win out, UO wins rematch. Both 12-1.
Then what? You'd have NINE 12-1 teams. Three who did not win their conference. A 12-1 conference winner who got clubbed by 2-10 Pittsburgh. And an 11-2 conference winner whose best player for the offense is the punter.
Bama clearly in. Thus Texas clearly in b/c they beat Bama. I guess Oregon gets in on strength of schedule and quality of beating UW. And for the final spot... no way FSU gets in over Louisville, and no way Louisville gets in. No way Iowa. No way does UM catch a break (that ol' "strength of schedule", and... other reasons). Does OSU get in? Maybe UW? Probably UGa (naturally, ignoring their "strength of schedule")?
November 14th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^
In your scenario the Michigan/OSU loser would be 11-1, not 12-1.
November 14th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
That, to me, is the only realistic scenario of two SEC teams getting in.
Assuming Wash/Oregon win out the regular season, the winner is in.
Texas as a one loss b12 champ is in.
Alabama would be in as one loss SEC champ.
Then it’s between a 1-loss Louisville ACC champ, a one loss Georgia whose only loss is to a cfp team, and a 12-1 UM/OSU.
The loser of the Game would be out of contention at this point, as would a non conference champion FSU even with only one loss.
IMO, Louisville should be the last team in even with the bad loss to Pitt, although the UM/OSU 12-1 team would have an argument because of having the best win between them, Louisville and Georgia. But, knowing how things go because that’s how they’ve always gone, Georgia would get the last spot.
November 14th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
maxwell smart is on the shoe phone and he believes it will be:
chaos.
November 14th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
I would like to see Michigan vs Everybody