Caesars Sports has Ohio State as a 2.5 point favorite over Michigan in a hypothetical title game

Submitted by umfan83 on December 5th, 2022 at 6:29 PM
https://twitter.com/TheMaxMeyer/status/1599834800935911431

 

Apparently Vegas thinks UM's 22 point road win over OSU was a fluke.  I mean I'm not saying it should be Michigan -22 or anything but this makes no sense.

Funny thing is last week I saw the same future odds and they had OSU/UM as a pick em.  Maybe the Corum surgery news changed it, but of course Michigan beat OSU the first time without Corum.  

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berto714

December 6th, 2022 at 5:09 AM ^

While this is commonly believed to be how lines are set, it's not really true. Books would rather set lines as close to "accurate" as possible. Sure, it may leave them open to big losses on some games but overall they know that if they set the lines in the correct place they will come out ahead in the end. They'll also some out ahead when a ton of money is on the "wrong" side because they have the line right but public sentiment thinks they don't.

While it's paywalled, last year the Athletic published a good explanation of how betting lines are set: https://theathletic.com/2644177/2021/06/17/james-holzhauer-how-sportsbooks-really-make-their-lines-and-early-tips-on-where-to-beat-them/

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Carcajou

December 5th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^

Good. I'd rather Michigan be seen as the underdog in the title game.

The Buckeyes probably have more important injuries to heal, and I would expect a much, much closer game than The Game, but I still expect the good guys to prevail if it should come to that.

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TESOE

December 5th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^

Yeah but whose money?

 

Be very quiet... I am hunting Yeah Buts...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_college_football_post-season_games_that_were_rematches_of_regular_season_games

 

There appears to be a clear advantage in a bowl rematch for the team that lost in the regular season, as the regular season losers have a record of 16–7 in post-season games, and in five of the losses the margin for the team that won twice was smaller the second time. This is in contrast to rematches that occur in conference championship games where the winners of the first game have a record of 34-23. Two of the twenty-five rematch bowls featured teams that tied during the regular season.

 

It is hard to beat a team twice.

 

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charblue.

December 5th, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^

Corum played in Columbus and last year in Ann Arbor. Not a lot on Nov. 26. But he did get a couple of carries. 

You can't change what other people think. You can only explain why it doesn't make sense to believe things that don't make sense. 

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LabattsBleu

December 5th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^

better than being 10 point dogs like at the shoe...

since betting odds don't have any affect on the game, not sure why anyone cares...if the numbers are so out of whack, you can bet the farm and make a truck load of money betting on Michigan.

Beating a team twice in a season is a lot harder than beating them once that's for damn sure

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Colt Burgess

December 5th, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^

They must have used a consultant named Urban Meyer who said, "Next time Ryan will stick to the game plan I gave him. I scouted Michigan all year. I was in the meetings all week. Ryan swore he would do it my way, but he started thinking for himself in the second half."

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M-Dog

December 5th, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^

Well Vegas did have Michigan as a 22 point favorite over Ohio State in November, so those good folks must really know their shit.

Wait . . . what?

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Wolverine 73

December 5th, 2022 at 8:54 PM ^

I think this is great.  Put more pressure on those guys.  They didn’t seem to react to it well last time.  Of course, this assumes we both win round 1.

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BornInA2

December 5th, 2022 at 9:50 PM ^

All that means is that they have to give OSU 2.5 points to get people to bet on them.

Point spreads are about evening up betting, not about who the bookies think will win.

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Perkis-Size Me

December 5th, 2022 at 10:13 PM ^

I’ll be clear. I would not, I repeat, NOT be eager for a rematch in the title game. I’d be a nervous wreck that entire week, as would everyone on this board. It would be the biggest game in the history of this program, and that’s not even remotely hyperbole. There may never be a bigger game that Michigan would ever play. Ever.

But if Michigan were to win…..it would’ve been immediately worth the pain and misery the last twenty years brought. It would truly break OSU and it’s fans for at least the next decade or two, and Day would legitimately have reason to worry that he would not have a job by the time he got back to Columbus.

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Durham Blue

December 6th, 2022 at 12:11 AM ^

Being the small underdog to OSU doesn't bother me.  Just more motivation to beat them again.

The line that bothers me is UGA -8.  That is about the same line as last season when UGA was a better team and Michigan was worse.  I would put serious dough on Michigan +8, if that were to happen.

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gustave ferbert

December 6th, 2022 at 5:48 AM ^

Betting lines are a market place.  If people are the market there is a bias which is clearly evident.  People can't seem to wrap their heads around the idea that Michigan's program has caught up (or maybe even overtaken) OSU.   And they also can't seem to purge themselves of the idea of the SEC possibly having a down year?  Or the changed landscape from NIL and the transfer portal. 

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oakapple

December 6th, 2022 at 7:21 AM ^

The spread is the amount required to attract equal action on both sides of the bet. It does not reflect Vegas's view of who will actually win by what amount.

If there were pick-em odds a week ago, most likely there were more OSU bettors taking those odds than Michigan bettors, so they moved the line.

It's hard to beat the same team twice in one year. TCU beat K-State in the regular season, but lost to them in the Big XII championship game. Last year, Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC championship game but lost to them in the title game.

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