Bowl outlook for Michigan and B1G

Submitted by bo_lives on

With the way the season has gone, up to this point there hasn't been much discussion on what the actual bowl outlook will be. We've been focused on the CFP, which is still a real possibility, but I'd like to take a step back and examine what the possible scenarios are--not just for Michigan, but for the rest of the B1G too. The way I see it, there are 3 possible outcomes:

1) Michigan wins out, wins the BTCG. Obviously the ideal scenario for us fans. In this case, I'd expect OSU to go to the Rose over a 3-loss Wisconsin.

2) Michigan beats OSU, loses to Wisconsin. Wisconsin goes to the CFP, Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl

3) OSU beats Michigan. Here's where it gets interesting. Assuming PSU wins out, would an 11-1 OSU team make the CFP over a 12-2 Big Ten Champ PSU or Wisconsin? My gut says yes. OSU will be #2 going into The Game, no doubt about it. Therefore they would have to fall 3 spots during championship week. In the podcast, Brian seems to think this would happen, but I'm not so sure. PSU and Wisconsin have a pretty big hill to clime, and OSU has a long way to fall. That would put PSU/Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl--so where does that leave Michigan? Is there a limit to the number of NY6 bowls a conference can have? I.e. is there a conceivable scenario where OSU is in the CFP, PSU/Wisconsin is in the Rose, and Michigan faces .... *dramatic music* Western in the Cotton Bowl? Or would the more likely scenario be a rematch of last year's Citrus Bowl?

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BigBlue02

November 15th, 2016 at 2:43 AM ^

Here it is. I'm gonna say it. MSU upsets either PSU or OSU. I have no idea how it plays out after that. PS-I've been drinking, that probably won't happen, so we run a train on everybody and make the playoffs

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Lan Jiao

November 15th, 2016 at 2:59 AM ^

1. Alabama 2/3. OSU - CFPC has already shown they hold them highly. 2/3. Clemson - Based on H2H over Looville 4. Wisconsin - CFPC can't leave out B1G champ with 2 solid losses. 5/6. Washington - P12 Champ means something...just not as much as B1G champ. Although, I think Washington drops another one. 5/6. Louisville - CFPC has shown they don't respect them and they have no chance to make a case from here out. Michigan vs. Washington in the Rose Bowl? Penn St. vs. Louisville in the Orange? WMU vs. LSU in the Sugar? But lezzzbehonest, a lot will be revealed when CFPC rankings come out this week and the rest of us still aren't 100% about which criteria outweighs which.

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Don

November 15th, 2016 at 4:55 AM ^

It was an article of faith around here not too many weeks ago that James Franklin was a ridiculous fraud whose remaining time at PSU was measured in months, not years.

Now it appears as though PSU has a reasonable shot at not only winning the BIG but getting into the playoff. Over us and our peerless coaching staff.

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g_reaper3

November 15th, 2016 at 5:54 AM ^

I told my friends before the game that it was almost certainly the last time Franklin was going to be in the Big House as coach of Penn St. Our blowout of them just reinforced that in my mind. Yet now they are like a different team.

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I Like Burgers

November 15th, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^

Same goes for USC. People were talking about Helton getting fired midseason, players walking out of practice, players punching him in the face....and now? Outside of Alabama, USC might be the team in CFB I'd least want to face. They've been outstanding the last 5 weeks or so.



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ppudge

November 15th, 2016 at 7:24 AM ^

I'm not sold on Penn State. They got lucky against Ohio State and the only other team above .500 that they beat was Iowa, at home, at night (and we know how those can turn out). They have been fortunate to avoid Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska - all teams that they would probably lose to on a neutral field, and maybe even at home.

If Penn State gets lucky to get to the conference championship game, Wisconsin will beat them handily.

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SD Larry

November 15th, 2016 at 8:02 AM ^

some were please PSU was winning because it would prolong Franklin's tenure.  Meanwhile, fwiw, I think Michigan will play well the last two games of the season.  A lot of little mistakes against Iowa will be corrected, and hopefully Speight can play against OSU.  But I think we have a good shot beating Indy and OSU with O'Korn, a good running game, and an excellent defense.  

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LSAClassOf2000

November 15th, 2016 at 6:46 AM ^

For those who want the list of bowl tie-ins, they are laid out well in this article here - LINK

It also has information on some of the agreements for each bowls, in the event you were wondering how many teams could potentially repeat in any bowls potentially (virtually none). I think the numbering of the list roughly corresponds to the rank order of tie-ins too - roughly. 

Other conferences are included here too. 

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smwilliams

November 15th, 2016 at 7:35 AM ^

The committee said last week that A&M was ranked over Auburn because of their H2H win. So, here are the scenarios which I find most likely...

Michigan Wins Out -

Fiesta Bowl vs. #2/#3 Team (Clemson, possibly)

Michigan beats Ohio State, loses to Wisconsin/Penn State in the B1G Championship Game -

Wisconsin/Penn State go to the CFP

Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl

Ohio State goes to the Orange Bowl

Wisconsin/Penn State loser goes to Citrus

Michigan loses to Ohio State, Penn State beats Wisconsin in the B1G CG -

Penn State goes to the CFP

Ohio State goes to the Rose

Michigan goes to the Orange (against Louisville most likely)

Wisconsin goes to the Citrus

Michigan loses to Ohio State, Wisconsin beats Penn State in the B1G CG -

Ohio State goes to the CFP

Wisconsin goes to the Rose

Michigan goes to the Orange

Penn State goes to the Citrus

----Penn State has that win over Ohio State which is why if they end up B1G Champions, I think they end up going to the CFP while if Wisconsin wins I think Ohio State goes. There is no scenario I can think of in which a 3-loss Penn State or Wisconsin team gets to a NY6 bowl over a 2-loss Michigan team.

TLDR: If Michigan beats Indiana, they will most likely make a NY6 Bowl.

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Moonlight Graham

November 15th, 2016 at 7:37 AM ^

in 2014: Alabama, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. The SEC East champ was left out completely. 

If we beat Indiana, I believe we are guaranteed at WORST one of three pretty decent outcomes:

Beat OSU, win CCG: Final Football Four Playoff

Beat OSU, lose CCG: Rose Bowl, hopefully not a rematch against Colorado just because ... but it's the Rose Bowl

Lose to OSU: Probably still the Rose Bowl, but if Wisky-PSU winner goes to playoff and OSU does not, Rose *may* pick OSU, even though I'm sure they'd love to have Michigan back there. In this scenario, one of us goes to the Rose and one of us goes to the Orange vs. Clemson or Louisville. If chaos happens elsewhere and they put both the CCG winner and OSU in the playoff, that's better for us and guarantees the Rose. 

So Playoff, Rose Bowl, or a nice Orange Bowl matchup against probably the #5 or 6 team. We beat Indiana and that's what we've earned at minimum. 

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Venom7541

November 15th, 2016 at 7:41 AM ^

Nothing has changed my opinion that Michigan will beat OSU. I look at this game more like the wake up call a lot of champions in all sports get right before their run to a title. I'll believe OSU runs the table when I see. Until then, Michigan will run the table and be in the CFP.

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drzoidburg

November 15th, 2016 at 8:18 AM ^

I think Ohio would go over Pedo St due to those 2 losses being so awful and a relatively crappy schedule. But i think Wisconsin could pass them. The other consideration of course is head to head. Then it's also possible the conference gets two teams, particularly after Washington's loss

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Mongo

November 15th, 2016 at 8:40 AM ^

MSU is going to play spoiler someplace, likely dumping PSU out of the picture. The CFP spots will be up for grabs right thru the conference title games across the entire country. Going to be a tough year to be on the selection committee.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 15th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^

I agree. They're going to have some extremely tough decisions to make. 

The whole point of the playoff was to get the four best teams in America to square off against one another. You may have at least one playoff spot this year that goes to a non-conference champion (Louisville or OSU). We're going to find out exactly how much the committee values winning your conference. 

Do you reward an 11-2 Wiscy or PSU team that wins their conference over an 11-1 OSU team that is in all likelihood better than either of those teams? I don't know. There's going to be a lot of bitching one way or another. 

Hopefully Michigan can just win out and remove all of that uncertainty from everyone's plates. We're the only team in the conference that legitimately controls its own destiny. 

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ryebadger

November 15th, 2016 at 4:12 PM ^

If OSU beats Michigan and Wisconsin beats Penn State in the conference championship game, I believe OSU should go to the playoff. It would suck for me as a fan, but it's hard to argue that a 1 loss, #2 ranked OSU team that beat UW in Madison should be left out. 

I still believe it's possible for 2 Big Ten teams to go in that scenario because I could see Washington losing once more. It also would not surprise me if Penn State lost to MSU.

There are still games to be played and a lot could happen. I'm not crazy about playing Minnesota in a rivalry game we've won 12 times in a row and 17 of 19. Law of averages, etc.   

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Perkis-Size Me

November 15th, 2016 at 9:07 AM ^

If we beat IU I'd say we're in an NY6 bowl at the bare minimum. High profile team with a big name coach and an extremely well-traveling fanbase. Assuming we then lose to OSU, and if PSU wins out, my guess is OSU for the playoff, the BTCG winner goes to the Rose Bowl, the loser gets the Citrus/Outback Bowl since they'll have three losses, and then we get an at-large NY6 bowl invite. My guess is the Orange Bowl vs. Louisville or the Cotton Bowl vs. (ugh) Western.

At this point, I think the Rose Bowl is off the table.



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mickblue

November 15th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^

We beat Indiana and lose a close game at OSU. Sparty beats Penn State.

OSU routs Wisconsin in B10 Championship at Indianapolis.

Just asking since nobody brought up this scenario.

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Mongo

November 15th, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^

2-loss Michigan is more attractive than a 3-loss Wisconsin, plus the HTH thing and we show better against OSU than UW. But Sparty would have to shutdown Barkley and find some offense / get turnovers to beat PSU, that is the first step.

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Michansas Wolverback

November 15th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^

I think it's a NY6 game no matter what. B1G could even put 2 in the CFP, but even if not, whichever of OSU, UM and PSU/UW winner (if that is the B1GCG) is not in CFP or Rose will get picked up for another NY6. That team would be Top 10 at worst w 2 losses.



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Michigan4Life

November 15th, 2016 at 9:32 AM ^

aren't a top 10-15 team because they rack up win totals in a bad conference.

Why do I say it? B1G has a lot of bad teams in the conference that allows meh teams to rack up 9-10 wins season.

Maryland

MSU

Illini

Purdue

Rutgers

Minnesota

Northwestern

Iowa

Indiana

 

That's 10 bad teams and some are just plain awful. 

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Michigan4Life

November 15th, 2016 at 4:51 PM ^

Pac-12 bad teams:

Arizona

Oregon State

Oregon

UCLA

 

Big 12 bad teams:
 

KU

ISU

 

ACC bad teams:

BC

Virginia

Maybe Syracuse

 

SEC bad teams:

Vandy

Mizzou

South Carolina

Mississppi State

 

Big Ten bad teams:

Rutgers

Purdue

Illini

MSU

Maryland

Northwestern

Minnesota

Iowa

Indiana

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TheBlueAbides

November 15th, 2016 at 8:26 PM ^

So NC State, Duke, ND, Wake, Texas Tech, Kansas State, UCLA, Cal, who all have the same or worse records than Iowa, and few of these teams have a win anywhere near Iowa, but they get a pass because? The Big Ten may be a bit too heavy, but it's unfair to say all of these teams in the Big Ten who are anywhere from 6-4 to below are any different than these teams 6-4 or below who you left off your list.



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ryebadger

November 15th, 2016 at 3:23 PM ^

Trying to follow the logic here. Is Michigan touring the SEC and Big 12 while Wisconsin is getting fat on its conference schedule?  Or do the awful teams in the B1G suddenly get better when they play Michigan? Everyone in the conference plays a conference schedule. Teams benefit equally from the weaker competition.

It's interesting that you included Iowa and MSU among the bad teams that help Wisconsin pad its win total. Minnesota and Northwestern can be tough outs, too. That leaves 5 truly bad teams in a conference of 14: Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana and Illinois. We'll end up playing 2 of them. You play 4.

 

   

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